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The 10 state legislative chambers that could flip in 2024
Democrats could take control of state governments in Arizona and New Hampshire.
Trump and Harris are both a normal polling error away from a blowout
The race is uncertain, but that doesn’t mean the outcome will be close.
How will young men vote in the 2024 election?
538’s G. Elliott Morris shares the latest polling data on how young men are voting.
Does only 3% of America care about democracy?
The 538 team weighs in on a study about whether voters would flip parties if their candidate did something anti-democratic.
How to look at early voting data responsibly
With the 2024 presidential election a week away, 538’s Galen Druke and G. Elliott Morris discuss the relevancy of early voting data.
The 2024 election could hinge on Pennsylvania
Our final deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.
2024 has fewer polls, but they are higher quality
How this year's polling compares with other recent elections.
In 2024, abortion rights initiatives are on the ballot in 10 states
Most would restore pre-Dobbs protections, but some advocates want to go further.
Which states have the most — and least — accurate polls?
Polls are more reliable in swing states, especially in the Sun Belt.
Can Democrats win Arizona again in 2024?
Our sixth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.
The backlash against liberalism on college campuses | 538 Politics podcast
538’s Galen Druke and professors Matt Grossman and David Hopkins talk about why some liberal academic ideas have been rejected by those with college degrees.
Is education the main dividing line in U.S. politics? | 538 Politics podcast
538’s Galen Druke and professors Matt Grossman and David Hopkins discuss the Diploma Divide and whether college degrees have become a deciding factor in political affiliation.
Does academia have a liberalism problem? | 538 Politics podcast
538’s Galen Druke and professors Matt Grossman and David Hopkins discuss the influence of liberalism on college campuses.
Republicans have a good shot at flipping the Senate
Introducing 538's forecast for the 2024 U.S. Senate elections.
How 538's 2024 Senate election forecast works
Here's everything that goes into this year's model.
Republican opposition could slow the push toward electric vehicles
Policies to boost EVs are still popular, but losing support.
Nebraska's Senate election is surprisingly close
538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich look at recent polling in the close race for Nebraska’s Senate seat and why an independent candidate is doing so well.
The difference between undecided voters and swing voters
The 538 team considers whether voters who are undecided or voters who go back and forth between parties are the same thing.
What percent of voters are truly undecided?
538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss how many voters are genuinely up for grabs in the 2024 presidential election.
What would happen if Harris and Trump tie in the Electoral College?
The race would go to Congress, where Republicans would likely have an advantage.
Trump has gained in 538's forecast, but the election is still a toss-up
No matter what polls you look at, the 2024 election is super close.
Wisconsin decided the 2020 election. How will it vote in 2024?
Our fifth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.
Why your vote matters in 2024
In the 2000 presidential race, the election came down to Florida, and the winner of the Sunshine State won by less than 0.1 percent of the vote.
The 2024 election could have a big impact on education policy
States are voting on school choice and more in 2024.
Why voting patterns may shift this election
538’s Galen Druke asks The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik if analysts should be skeptical of data that shows a shift in voting patterns.
Could recent hurricanes affect the presidential election?
The 538 team discusses how hurricane season and election season collide, prompting it to become a political talking point this election cycle.
What the polls say about the 2024 election
538’s Galen Druke and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss the latest polling data showing an extremely close presidential race.
How Hurricanes Helene and Milton could affect the 2024 election
Even if they don't change voters' minds, they could dampen turnout.
How Georgia could swing back to the GOP in 2024
Our fourth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.
3 states could vote to mandate paid sick days
Paid leave and minimum wage policies have passed by ballot initiative before.
How does a VP debate affect candidate favorability? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss how polls show a vice presidential debate has little to no impact on a candidate's favorability.
What issues matter to Americans? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss how important voters rank climate change, national security and the Middle East ahead of the election.
Does a VP debate impact how voters see presidential candidates?
The 538 team and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss whether a vice presidential debate can impact how viewers see presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
How Harris is distancing herself from Biden on the economy | 538 Politics podcast
The 538 team discusses the strategic differences between the Harris campaign when addressing inflation and the economy compared to President Joe Biden.
How a scandal in New York could affect the national House race
538's Galen Druke and G. Elliott Morris discuss allegations of possible violations of ethics rules by Rep. Anthony D'Esposito and what it means for which party wins the House.
Will foreign policy impact the 2024 election? | 538 Politics podcast
The 538 team discusses conflict in the Middle East and whether it impacts whom Americans will cast their ballot for in November.
Why you can't predict polling error in advance | 538 Politics podcast
The 538 team discusses how polls have underestimated Democratic and Republican support in the past and how unpredictable the direction of polling error can be.
The importance of polls and public opinion | 538 Politics podcast
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich talk about the role polling can have in a democracy, from measuring issues voters consider important to providing insight into presidential elections.
What does a margin of error in polling mean? | 538 Politics podcast
The 538 team discusses what you should know about the margin of error of national and state polls.
538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.
If the Senate is tied 50-50, the vice president casts the tiebreaking vote. Our Senate forecast uses our presidential forecast to determine who would control the Senate in these cases. Our forecast of chamber control also assumes that Angus King and Bernie Sanders would caucus with Democrats and randomizes which party Dan Osborn would caucus with (one-third of the time with Democrats, one-third of the time with Republicans and one-third of the time with neither).
Latest updates
While Kamala Harris was getting rosy polls this weekend, Democrats got opposite news in the Senate. Final polls from Emerson College and Morning Consult both showed Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown trailing Republican businessman Bernie Moreno, and Moreno pulled into a slight lead in our polling average. A poll from international polling firm AtlasIntel found Democratic incumbent Jon Tester losing to his Republican challenger Tim Sheehy by 11 points in Montana; in response, Sheehy jumped out to a 7-point lead in our polling average.
With a more defensive outlook for the Democrats, and still fewer pickup opportunities, our forecast gives Republicans a XXX out of 100 chance of winning control of the chamber today, while the Democrats keep their majority in just XXX out of 100 of our model’s simulations. To hold their majority, Democrats probably need to not only beat the polls in Ohio and (significantly) in Montana, but also defy electoral gravity in each (Trump is the easy favorite to win both races in the presidential election). Neither of those things happen very often — hence the low probability.
—G. Elliott Morris
Who’s favored to win each seat?
The probability of a Democratic or Republican win in each race.
How has the forecast changed over time?
The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get new data. Uncertainty will decrease as we get closer to Election Day.
Our forecast of chamber control assumes that Angus King and Bernie Sanders would caucus with Democrats and randomizes which party Dan Osborn would caucus with (one-third of the time with Democrats, one-third of the time with Republicans and one-third of the time with neither).
What are the closest races?
Use the table below to sort states by name or forecasted margin of victory.
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