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Welcome to Milwaukee
The 2024 Republican National Convention is underway. Here’s why the Republican Party chose Milwaukee as the host city.
The 2024 Republican Party platform is far from traditional
Conservative lawmakers have learned that things don’t go well if they break with their party.
Is Trump trying to soften the Republican Party’s least popular positions?
The GOP released its proposed party platform this week.
Nancy Pelosi and other lawmakers leave the door open for Biden to withdraw
More Democrats are saying the president shouldn’t run, but he continues on.
Americans were worried about Biden's age long before the debate
Polls show even many Democrats think he's too old for a second term.
4 reasons to beware of post-debate polling takes
Biden's lost some ground, but it's hard to say much more.
What the Democrats doubting Biden have in common
They're more moderate, while his backers are progressive and racially diverse.
Why 538's forecast hasn't moved much post-debate
Polls move a lot in the fall, and the fundamentals are still good for Biden.
Can Biden recover from the debate?
Avoiding public appearances and minimizing camera time isn’t a scandal, but it doesn’t bode well.
What do Democrats really think about Biden continuing to run?
Voters are more concerned about his age than a few years ago, polls show.
Why Biden will probably stay in the race despite Democratic dissent
538’s Nathaniel Rakich joins the podcast to shed light on similarities between Biden today and Trump in 2016.
Why the Supreme Court tends to release unpopular decisions late in its term
The court may be trying to minimize public backlash over controversial opinions.
Would Kamala Harris be a stronger candidate than Biden?
What the 538 forecast would say if the 2024 election were Harris versus Trump.
Will President Biden stay in the race?
After fallout from his debate performance, the president's future in the White House has been questioned.
Democrats express concern over Biden’s future
With the election months away, 538 breaks down the possibilities and future of President Biden in the White House.
Has the United Kingdom established a political identity?
Helen Thompson and David Runciman join 538 to discuss the country's political identity and what to expect in the UK election.
The Brexit movement's impact on the present day
Political and economic experts discuss a post-Brexit economy ahead of election day.
Making sense of a historic British election
The UK could be on the verge of electing a center-left government, a groundbreaking decision given the country's conservative history in politics.
Voters are mad as hell in the UK and France
It's one of many similarities with the U.S. election.
Will SCOTUS' blockbuster rulings push Biden criticism out of the headlines?
Since SCOTUS handed down its decisions, the focus appears to have shifted. 538 discusses.
538 discusses Justice Amy Coney Barrett's disagreement regarding evidence
Despite Justice Barrett siding with the majority on the presidential immunity case, she dissented on a section of the ruling. 538 has more.
SCOTUS ruled on presidential immunity. What does that mean for Trump?
It's very unlikely Trump will stand trial before the 2024 presidential election: 538
What the polls say after the first presidential debate
Trump looks to be gaining, but by how much remains to be seen.
What Trump's VP pick could mean for 2028
Less than the current front-runners might hope.
Who won the first Biden-Trump presidential debate?
We partnered with Ipsos to poll voters before and after the debate.
Trump and Biden talk taxes at 1st debate
New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik and senior election analyst Nathaniel Rakich join the 538 Politics podcast to discuss the first presidential debate.
Would Biden step aside in 2024 election?
Senior election analyst Nathaniel Rakich reacts to President Joe Biden’s performance at the first debate.
Who won the 1st presidential debate?
538's Galen Druke is joined by senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik to talk about the first 2024 presidential debate.
Biden's biggest weakness -- his age -- on full display at debate: ANALYSIS
The president's age and perceived frailty became a clear liability on stage.
Who will win the first Biden-Trump presidential debate?
We’re partnering with Ipsos to poll voters before and after the debate.
Biden and Trump are in a toss-up race for president
Ahead of the first presidential debate on Thursday, 538 looks at the chances of each candidate winning the election this fall.
Why the Biden-Trump debate matters more than you think
Debates usually move the polls — and a tied race could shift either way.
What to expect from the 1st 2024 presidential debate
President Biden and former President Donald Trump will go head-to-head on Thursday.
All eyes on 3 high-profile primaries Tuesday
Polls are open in Colorado, New York, and Utah on Tuesday.
Upcoming debate is different than other debates
The debate Thursday between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is the first not run by the Commission on Presidential Debates since 1988.
How will polls change after the 1st presidential debate?
The 538 Politics podcast discusses whether President Joe Biden can increase his support until election night.
15 elections to watch in New York, Colorado, Utah and South Carolina
Jamaal Bowman and Lauren Boebert could both lose their primaries.
Do global election trends provide insight into the US election?
Experts explain how trends of discontent around the world could help explain the outcome for the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
Why are voters so dissatisfied around the world?
Experts talk about dissatisfaction among voters around the world.
Is discontent a trend for elections around the world?
Discontent among voters has been documented in Europe and the United States. Does this trend also exist in countries with upcoming elections?
Beyond the election, how might AI be regulated? | 538 Politics Podcast
Last month, a bipartisan group of senators unveiled a roadmap for artificial intelligence policy, proposing $32 billion in funding to support AI research.
Lawmakers feel public pressure to regulate AI | 538 Politics Podcast
Gregory Allen, director of the Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies, joins the 538 Politics podcast.
How concerned are Americans with AI? | 538 Politics Podcast
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with Gregory Allen, director of the Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies, about the politics of AI regulation.
How 2016 and 2020 polling errors are accounted for in the election forecast
In this episode of the 538 podcast, Elliott explains how the forecast model accounts for historical polling errors to minimize bias and accurately reflect a wide range of potential election outcomes.
Who Is Favored To Win Virginia's 13 Electoral Votes?
538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.
What are the latest polls in Virginia?
We adjust polls for house effects, mode, partisanship, voter likelihood and third parties and weight them based on their firm’s 538 pollster rating and how often it polls.
| Dates | Pollster Sponsor | 538 Pollster Rating | Result | Net result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 14-15 | No rating | Biden 43% 42% Trump | Biden +1 | |
| July 14-15 | 2.9 | Biden 38% 43% Trump | Trump +5 | |
| July 12-13 | No rating | Biden 42% 39% Trump | Biden +3 | |
| July 9-12 | 3.0 | Biden 40% 38% Trump | Biden +2 | |
| July 6-11 | No rating | Biden 47% 44% Trump | Biden +3 | |
| June 24-July 3 | 2.1 | Biden 37% 39% Trump | Trump +2 | |
| June 1-3 | 2.8 | Biden 42% 41% Trump | Biden +1 | |
| May 12-21 | 2.6 | Biden 40% 38% Trump | Biden +2 | |
| April 29-May 1 | Donald Trump Donald Trump is a Republican Party candidate for office. | 0.5 | Biden 48% 44% Trump | Biden +4 |
| April 26-28 | 1.7 | Biden 43% 42% Trump | Biden +1 |
Sponsor
How has the forecast changed in Virginia over time?
The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get new data. Uncertainty will decrease as we get closer to Election Day.
What do the polls and fundamentals alone say?
Our forecast is based on a combination of the polls and various economic and political variables we call the “fundamentals.” This chart shows the different components of the forecast in [state] and what they say.
Polling average
The state of the polls today according to 538’s polling average only. This does not account for the chance that polls systematically underestimate one candidate.
Adjusted polling average
The polling average adjusted for movement in similar states and the effects of party conventions. This does not account for the chance that polls systematically underestimate one candidate.
Forecast of polling average on Election Day
An adjusted version of our polling average that accounts for potential movement in the race between now and Election Day. This does not account for the chance that the polls systematically underestimate one candidate.
Fundamentals-only forecast
What our fundamentals model alone would predict the popular vote margin to be.
Full forecast
Our final forecast of the popular vote, based on both polls and fundamentals and accounting for the chance that polls systematically underestimate one candidate. Before Election Day, the final forecast in some states can be more Democratic or Republican than the fundamentals and polls because of patterns of overperformance in similar states.
How has [state] voted in the past?
The results of the last six presidential elections in [state] compared with the national popular vote.
| 20XX | Dem. | Rep. |
|---|---|---|
| ST | XX.X% | XX.X% |
| U.S. | XX.X% | XX.X% |
See a different contest
Go to a random state
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