The 10 state legislative chambers that could flip in 2024

Democrats could take control of state governments in Arizona and New Hampshire.

October 31, 2024

Trump and Harris are both a normal polling error away from a blowout

The race is uncertain, but that doesn’t mean the outcome will be close.

October 30, 2024

How will young men vote in the 2024 election?

538’s G. Elliott Morris shares the latest polling data on how young men are voting.

October 29, 2024

Does only 3% of America care about democracy?

The 538 team weighs in on a study about whether voters would flip parties if their candidate did something anti-democratic.

October 29, 2024

How to look at early voting data responsibly

With the 2024 presidential election a week away, 538’s Galen Druke and G. Elliott Morris discuss the relevancy of early voting data.

October 29, 2024

The 2024 election could hinge on Pennsylvania

Our final deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.

October 29, 2024

2024 has fewer polls, but they are higher quality

How this year's polling compares with other recent elections.

October 28, 2024

In 2024, abortion rights initiatives are on the ballot in 10 states

Most would restore pre-Dobbs protections, but some advocates want to go further.

October 28, 2024

Which states have the most — and least — accurate polls?

Polls are more reliable in swing states, especially in the Sun Belt.

October 25, 2024

Can Democrats win Arizona again in 2024?

Our sixth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.

October 24, 2024

The backlash against liberalism on college campuses | 538 Politics podcast

538’s Galen Druke and professors Matt Grossman and David Hopkins talk about why some liberal academic ideas have been rejected by those with college degrees.

October 24, 2024

Is education the main dividing line in U.S. politics? | 538 Politics podcast

538’s Galen Druke and professors Matt Grossman and David Hopkins discuss the Diploma Divide and whether college degrees have become a deciding factor in political affiliation.

October 24, 2024

Does academia have a liberalism problem? | 538 Politics podcast

538’s Galen Druke and professors Matt Grossman and David Hopkins discuss the influence of liberalism on college campuses.

October 24, 2024

Republicans have a good shot at flipping the Senate

Introducing 538's forecast for the 2024 U.S. Senate elections.

October 23, 2024

How 538's 2024 Senate election forecast works

Here's everything that goes into this year's model.

October 23, 2024

Republican opposition could slow the push toward electric vehicles

Policies to boost EVs are still popular, but losing support.

October 22, 2024

Nebraska's Senate election is surprisingly close

538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich look at recent polling in the close race for Nebraska’s Senate seat and why an independent candidate is doing so well.

October 22, 2024

The difference between undecided voters and swing voters

The 538 team considers whether voters who are undecided or voters who go back and forth between parties are the same thing.

October 22, 2024

What percent of voters are truly undecided?

538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss how many voters are genuinely up for grabs in the 2024 presidential election.

October 22, 2024

What would happen if Harris and Trump tie in the Electoral College?

The race would go to Congress, where Republicans would likely have an advantage.

October 22, 2024

Trump has gained in 538's forecast, but the election is still a toss-up

No matter what polls you look at, the 2024 election is super close.

October 18, 2024

Wisconsin decided the 2020 election. How will it vote in 2024?

Our fifth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.

October 17, 2024

Why your vote matters in 2024

In the 2000 presidential race, the election came down to Florida, and the winner of the Sunshine State won by less than 0.1 percent of the vote.

October 16, 2024

The 2024 election could have a big impact on education policy

States are voting on school choice and more in 2024.

October 16, 2024

Why voting patterns may shift this election

538’s Galen Druke asks The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik if analysts should be skeptical of data that shows a shift in voting patterns.

October 15, 2024

Could recent hurricanes affect the presidential election?

The 538 team discusses how hurricane season and election season collide, prompting it to become a political talking point this election cycle.

October 15, 2024

What the polls say about the 2024 election

538’s Galen Druke and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss the latest polling data showing an extremely close presidential race.

October 15, 2024

How Hurricanes Helene and Milton could affect the 2024 election

Even if they don't change voters' minds, they could dampen turnout.

October 15, 2024

How Georgia could swing back to the GOP in 2024

Our fourth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.

October 14, 2024

3 states could vote to mandate paid sick days

Paid leave and minimum wage policies have passed by ballot initiative before.

October 11, 2024

How does a VP debate affect candidate favorability? | 538 Politics Podcast

538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss how polls show a vice presidential debate has little to no impact on a candidate's favorability.

October 3, 2024

What issues matter to Americans? | 538 Politics Podcast

538's Galen Druke and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss how important voters rank climate change, national security and the Middle East ahead of the election.

October 3, 2024

Does a VP debate impact how voters see presidential candidates?

The 538 team and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss whether a vice presidential debate can impact how viewers see presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

October 3, 2024

How Harris is distancing herself from Biden on the economy | 538 Politics podcast

The 538 team discusses the strategic differences between the Harris campaign when addressing inflation and the economy compared to President Joe Biden.

October 1, 2024

How a scandal in New York could affect the national House race

538's Galen Druke and G. Elliott Morris discuss allegations of possible violations of ethics rules by Rep. Anthony D'Esposito and what it means for which party wins the House.

October 1, 2024

Will foreign policy impact the 2024 election? | 538 Politics podcast

The 538 team discusses conflict in the Middle East and whether it impacts whom Americans will cast their ballot for in November.

October 1, 2024

Why you can't predict polling error in advance | 538 Politics podcast

The 538 team discusses how polls have underestimated Democratic and Republican support in the past and how unpredictable the direction of polling error can be.

September 27, 2024

The importance of polls and public opinion | 538 Politics podcast

538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich talk about the role polling can have in a democracy, from measuring issues voters consider important to providing insight into presidential elections.

September 27, 2024

What does a margin of error in polling mean? | 538 Politics podcast

The 538 team discusses what you should know about the margin of error of national and state polls.

September 27, 2024

UPDATED Nov. 1, 2024, at 2:31 PM

Who Is Favored To Win Virginia's 13 Electoral Votes?

538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.

Harris wins 91 times out of 100
in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
Trump wins 9 times out of 100.
Harris
 
000
Trump
 
000
 
 simulations
Harris wins Va.
Trump wins Va.
Popular vote margin

What are the latest polls in Virginia?

We adjust polls for house effects, mode, partisanship, voter likelihood and third parties and weight them based on their firm’s 538 pollster rating and how often it polls.

DatesPollster
Sponsor
538 Pollster RatingResultNet result
Oct. 25-29
2.6
Harris
51%
41%
Trump
Harris +10
Oct. 2-28
No rating
Harris
54%
46%
Trump
Harris +8
Oct. 1-25
2.9
Harris
52%
44%
Trump
Harris +8
Oct. 22-24
TrendingPolitics
No rating
Harris
49%
48%
Trump
Harris +1
Oct. 19-23
2.7
Harris
49%
43%
Trump
Harris +6
Sept. 28-Oct. 4
2.8
Harris
52%
41%
Trump
Harris +11
Sept. 16-25
2.1
Harris
47%
37%
Trump
Harris +10
Sept. 22-24
2.9
Harris
53%
46%
Trump
Harris +7
Sept. 9-18
1.8
Harris
51%
44%
Trump
Harris +7
Aug. 19-Sept. 17
No rating
Harris
55%
45%
Trump
Harris +10
Dates
Pollster
Sponsor
538 Pollster Rating
Result
Net result
Oct. 2-28
No rating
54%
46%
Harris +8
Oct. 1-25
2.9
52%
44%
Harris +8
Oct. 22-24
No rating
49%
48%
Harris +1
53%
46%
Harris +7
Sept. 9-18
1.8
51%
44%
Harris +7
Aug. 19-Sept. 17
No rating
55%
45%
Harris +10

How has the forecast changed in Virginia over time?

The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get new data. Uncertainty will decrease as we get closer to Election Day.

We forecast the popular vote only for candidates polling at 5 percent or higher nationally, polling at 10 percent or higher in at least one state or who are on the ballot in almost every state. Since Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s withdrawal, only Harris and Trump meet these criteria, so we are effectively forecasting the two-way popular vote between Democrats and Republicans.

What do the polls or fundamentals alone say?

Our forecast is based on a combination of the polls and various economic and political variables we call the “fundamentals.” This chart shows how we get from the polls today to a forecast for [state] on Election Day.

Median
95% of outcomes fall in this range
Margin of victory
Polling averages
Polling averages

Polling average

The state of public opinion today, according only to 538’s average of polls in [state] and accounting for trends in national polls.

Adjusted polling average

The polling average for [state] adjusted for movement in similar states and the effects of party conventions.

Forecast components
Weight

Forecast of polling average on Election Day

The adjusted polling average with uncertainty intervals that account for potential movement in the race between now and Election Day. This does not account for the chance that the polls systematically underestimate one candidate.

00

Fundamentals-only forecast

What our fundamentals model alone would predict the popular vote margin to be.

00

Full forecast

Our final forecast of the popular vote, based on a weighted average of the polls and fundamentals using the weights above. This accounts for the chance that the polls systematically underestimate one candidate.

Forecast components may not exactly add up to full forecast because of rounding and random sampling. (When combining the components, we take a random sample of simulations from each, and they may not exactly match the full sample of simulations.)

How has [state] voted in the past?

The results of the last six presidential elections in [state] compared with the national popular vote.

20XXDem.Rep.
ST XX.X%XX.X%
U.S.XX.X%XX.X%

See a different contest

Alabama
Better for Cand than ST
Alaska
Better for Cand than ST
Arizona
Better for Cand than ST
Arkansas
Better for Cand than ST
California
Better for Cand than ST
Colorado
Better for Cand than ST
Connecticut
Better for Cand than ST
District of Columbia
Better for Cand than ST
Delaware
Better for Cand than ST
Florida
Better for Cand than ST
Georgia
Better for Cand than ST
Hawaii
Better for Cand than ST
Idaho
Better for Cand than ST
Illinois
Better for Cand than ST
Indiana
Better for Cand than ST
Iowa
Better for Cand than ST
Kansas
Better for Cand than ST
Kentucky
Better for Cand than ST
Louisiana
Better for Cand than ST
Maine
Better for Cand than ST
Maine 1st District
Better for Cand than ST
Maine 2nd District
Better for Cand than ST
Maryland
Better for Cand than ST
Massachusetts
Better for Cand than ST
Michigan
Better for Cand than ST
Minnesota
Better for Cand than ST
Mississippi
Better for Cand than ST
Missouri
Better for Cand than ST
Montana
Better for Cand than ST
Nebraska
Better for Cand than ST
Nebraska 1st District
Better for Cand than ST
Nebraska 2nd District
Better for Cand than ST
Nebraska 3rd District
Better for Cand than ST
Nevada
Better for Cand than ST
New Hampshire
Better for Cand than ST
New Jersey
Better for Cand than ST
New Mexico
Better for Cand than ST
New York
Better for Cand than ST
North Carolina
Better for Cand than ST
North Dakota
Better for Cand than ST
Ohio
Better for Cand than ST
Oklahoma
Better for Cand than ST
Oregon
Better for Cand than ST
Pennsylvania
Better for Cand than ST
Rhode Island
Better for Cand than ST
South Carolina
Better for Cand than ST
South Dakota
Better for Cand than ST
Tennessee
Better for Cand than ST
Texas
Better for Cand than ST
Utah
Better for Cand than ST
Vermont
Better for Cand than ST
Virginia
Better for Cand than ST
Washington
Better for Cand than ST
West Virginia
Better for Cand than ST
Wisconsin
Better for Cand than ST
Wyoming
Better for Cand than ST
← Back to national forecast

Credits

Sources: American National Election Studies, The American Presidency Project at the University of California Santa Barbara, Ballotpedia, Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, Federal Election Commission, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Our Campaigns, polls, The Roper Center, state election websites, U.S. Census Bureau, University of Michigan Survey Research Center, VoteSmart