PUBLISHED Apr. 4, 2024, at 10:20 AM | UPDATED Oct. 3, 2024, at 5:00 PM

What Would It Take To Turn RedBlue States BlueRed?

How swings in party preference and turnout for key demographic groups could affect the 2024 presidential election.

By G. Elliott Morris, Amina Brown, and Aaron Bycoffe

538’s Swing-O-Matic shows what could happen in the 2024 election if Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump gains ground with different demographic groups — and if turnout shifts among others. To build it, we used data from the U.S. Census Bureau and several pollsters to estimate turnout and vote choice in the 2020 election sorted by five key demographic traits: age, education, sex, income and race. The starting map reflects vote preference and turnout levels from 2020’s matchup between Trump and President Joe Biden, adjusted for demographic shifts since then.

Use the buttons below, or scroll down the page, to explore how hypothetical changes in vote choice and turnout among different groups could alter the outcome of the 2024 election. Or, click the button to create your own election scenario! (Important note: The four hypotheticals below use swings among groups for demonstration purposes and are not forecasts. These swings are iterative and additive across groups: For example, moving young voters and Black voters each 5 points to the right would move young Black voters 10 points to the right.)

Based on 2020 turnout

Flipped:

Margin of victory:

← Harris

Independent

Trump →

Scroll to learn more about possible scenarios or use the buttons to jump to a specific one

Low turnout and high third-party vote

Non-college voters, nonwhite voters shift right

Low turnout non-college voters, white voters

Older voters, white voters shift left

Scroll to learn more about possible scenarios or use the buttons to jump to a specific one

Explore on your own

Low turnout and high third-party vote among young voters

Vote margin	Vote share	Turnout
D+29	I9%	36%

While Harris has improved on Biden's numbers among young voters, one of Democrats' key voting blocs, turnout among this group remains a potential pitfall for Democrats due to their concerns about the party’s alleged policy inaction on climate change, student debt, the economy and war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. These voters have three options: stay home, vote for Trump or vote for a third party.

This scenario explores how the election could go if young voters decide not to show up this year and those who do vote at a higher rate for third-party candidates. In 2020, 61 percent of voters between the ages of 18 and 29 voted for Biden, according to our analysis of Census Bureau data, polling and the statewide results of the election. Thirty-four percent voted for Trump, and 5 percent voted for independents. But if turnout among the group drops by 10 percentage points and third-party voting increases by 4 points, Trump would flip Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin, giving him an Electoral College victory with 272 electoral votes.

Vote margin	D+29
Vote share	I9%

Turnout	36%

Explore scenario

Non-college-educated voters and nonwhite voters shift right

Vote margin	Vote share	Turnout
R+9	I2%	62%

Polarization by educational attainment is one of the more consequential trends in American politics over the last two decades. Democrats now owe their electoral success largely to support from Americans with college degrees, while Republicans rely on support from non-college white voters to win national majorities. Trump’s victory in 2016 was in both parts a symptom and cause of this trend. And in 2020, when he won non-college-educated voters of all races 53 percent to 45 percent, he showed there may yet be more ground for Republicans to take. If that trend continues and Trump increases his margin among non-college-educated voters by another 2 points in 2024, Trump could add four states to his 2020 haul and come away with a win.

Vote margin	R+9
Vote share	I2%

Turnout	62%

Vote margin	Vote share	Turnout
D+45	I2%	57%

This trend isn’t limited to white voters. Trump made gains among non-college-educated voters of color in 2020 as well, and preelection polls for 2024 have shown him making further gains among the group. Nonwhite voters have traditionally been a huge source of votes for Democrats, voting 73 percent to 25 percent for Biden in the 2020 election, so Democratic losses in this group would also have a big impact. If we hypothesize that Trump’s vote margin among nonwhite voters* increases by 3 points, added to his gains among non-college-educated voters, he’d pick up a fifth state, bringing him to a 297-241 victory in the Electoral College.

Vote margin	D+45
Vote share	I2%

Turnout	57%

Explore scenario

Low turnout among non-college-educated voters and white voters

Vote margin	Vote share	Turnout
R+7	I2%	57%

Our next scenario looks at what might happen if Trump’s edge among non-college-educated and white voters remains the same, but those voters turn out at lower rates. Trump won among non-college-educated voters of all races by a 7-point margin in 2020. Our Swing-O-Matic shows that decreasing turnout among all voters without four-year college degrees by 5 points points alone does not tip the outcome of the election in any state.

Vote margin	R+7
Vote share	I2%

Turnout	57%

Vote margin	Vote share	Turnout
R+13	I2%	68%

The same is true if we decrease turnout among white voters, who Trump won by a 13-point margin in 2020, by 5 points. However, when we add both these swings together in our Swing-O-Matic — meaning non-college white voters get a cumulative 10-point decrease in turnout — Harris would pick up an additional state relative to Biden’s 2020 result: North Carolina and its 16 electoral votes.

Vote margin	R+13
Vote share	I2%

Turnout	68%

Explore scenario

Older voters and white voters shift left

Vote margin	Vote share	Turnout
R+8	I0%	82%

Polls also suggest Harris could gain ground among seniors, a group that voted for Trump 56 to 44 percent in 2020. Increasing Democratic margin by 3 points among voters aged 65 and older is a boon for Harris, expanding her margin in the popular vote from 4.5 points to 5.3 points, though she doesn’t win any additional electoral votes based on this isolated swing.

Vote margin	R+8
Vote share	I0%

Turnout	82%

Vote margin	Vote share	Turnout
R+9	I2%	73%

Increasing support among white voters would also be a plus for Harris. Our estimates show this group breaking 56 to 43 percent for Trump in 2020, with 72 percent of its voting-eligible population turning out to vote. If we increase Harris’s margin among white voters by 4 points, keeping turnout constant at 2020 levels, Harris would shore up Biden’s 2020 result by picking up North Carolina. And if we combine it with that 3-point swing among older voters, she’d also add senior-heavy Florida, winning 349 electoral votes and the popular vote by 8 points.

Vote margin	R+9
Vote share	I2%

Turnout	73%

Explore scenario

Create your own scenario

Change the settings below to see how shifts in party preference and turnout among different demographic groups would affect the 2024 presidential election. To set turnout for young voters at 70 percent, for example, use the slider or enter 70 in the box under the column “turnout.” Or, to swing Black voters 5 points to the right, enter a value or click the down arrow 5 times (since Black voters vote more Democratic as a group, this will decrease their margin of support for Democrats — the opposite would be true of a group that favors Republicans in the default scenario).

When you adjust the vote and turnout variables, our model recalculates the results of the election in each state and allocates Electoral College votes to the winner.

Create your own scenario

Reset to 2020

Reset

Age

Education

Sex

Income

Race**

Demographic	Group		Vote Margin	Ind. (%)
Age	18-29	DR+	I
	30-44	DR+	I
	45-64	DR+	I
	65+	DR+	I
Education	College	DR+	I
	Non-college	DR+	I
Sex	Female	DR+	I
	Male	DR+	I
Income	Under $30K	DR+	I
	$30-60K	DR+	I
	$60-100K	DR+	I
	$100K or more	DR+	I
Race**	AAPI, Non-Hispanic	DR+	I
	Black, Non-Hispanic	DR+	I
	Hispanic	DR+	I
	Other, Non-Hispanic	DR+	I
	White, Non-Hispanic	DR+	I
Shift all voters		DR+	I	Turnout

Based on 2020 turnout

Flipped:

Margin of victory:

← Harris

Independent

Trump →

		Age				Education		Income				Race**					Sex		Vote
State	Electoral votes	E.V.	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	Non-college	College	Under $30K	$30-60K	$60-100K	$100K or more	AAPI, Non-Hispanic	Black, Non-Hispanic	Hispanic	Other, Non-Hispanic	White, Non-Hispanic	Female	Male	Harris	Trump
U.S.	538
AK	3
AL	9
AR	6
AZ	11
CA	54
CO	10
CT	7
DC	3
DE	3
FL	30
GA	16
HI	4
IA	6
ID	4
IL	19
IN	11
KS	6
KY	8
LA	8
MA	11
MD	10
ME	2
ME 1st	1
ME 2nd	1
MI	15
MN	10
MO	10
MS	6
MT	4
NC	16
ND	3
NE	2
NE 1st	1
NE 2nd	1
NE 3rd	1
NH	4
NJ	14
NM	5
NV	6
NY	28
OH	17
OK	7
OR	8
PA	19
RI	4
SC	9
SD	3
TN	11
TX	40
UT	6
VA	13
VT	3
WA	12
WI	10
WV	4
WY	3

UPDATE (Oct. 3, 2024):
The text of this interactive has been updated to reflect that Vice President Kamala Harris is the Democratic nominee for president.

Footnotes:
*Shifts in vote margin among nonwhite voters in this scenario include the following swings in each racial group: Asian American and Pacific Islander, R+2; Black, R+4; Hispanic, R+5; and Other (non-Hispanic), R+2. These numbers add up to an overall swing of R+3 among all nonwhite voters, and reflect trends in recent polls that show Harris (and Democrats more broadly) losing more ground with Hispanic and Black voters than other racial groups.
**All racial groups other than Hispanic include only non-Hispanic voters.

Methodology: The Swing-O-Matic combines state-by-state demographic characteristics and population sizes with estimated voter turnout to predict the outcomes of the 2024 Electoral College and national popular vote, using three values to predict voting behavior of various demographic groups: (1) the number of people who share each set of demographic and geographic traits, (2) the probability that a person voted in the 2020 election and (3) the probability that they voted for Joe Biden, Donald Trump or an independent candidate for the 2020 presidency, if they were a voter.

To get state demographic characteristics and population sizes for adult U.S. citizens, we used the 2018-22 American Community Survey, downloaded from IPUMS at the University of Minnesota. For each state where respondents reside, IPUMS reports the population counts for each group of demographic variables, including citizenship status, age (which we combined into age categories), educational attainment, race, ethnicity, sex and total household income. (We imputed any missing data on total household income using a procedure called multiple imputation with chained equations, which predicts missing values based on age category, race and education attainment.)

To estimate the share of adult citizens in each demographic group that voted in 2020, we used voter-validated, post-election polling data from the 2020 Cooperative Election Study. The CES includes polling and voting data from 51,550 respondents, including their demographic traits, whether they voted in the general election and who they voted for. We used the CES data to train two statistical models: The first is a Bayesian multilevel logistic regression model that predicts the probability that someone voted in 2020 as a function of their demographic and geographic profile. This model accounts for the demographics mentioned above (age, race/ethnicity, education, sex, income and state of residence) as well as other auxiliary information, such as the median income in each state and the share of voting-eligible population that turned out in 2016. We repeat this process with a second model (Bayesian multilevel categorical regression model) to predict 2024 vote choice, using only the CES data from 35,549 validated (registered) voters who cast votes in 2020.

We then multiply these three values (population size, estimated 2020 turnout probability and predicted 2020 voting behavior) together to estimate the number of voters for Harris, Trump or another candidate in each demographic and geographic group. Then, we calculated the sum of that estimated number of voters to get an estimated total number of popular votes for each candidate at the state and national level. To make sure the estimates from our model match reality, we force the aggregated vote estimates to match the actual election results in each state using a method called the logit shift. We produced estimates for each congressional district in Maine and Nebraska, which split their electoral votes between the winner of the statewide and district-level popular vote, based on how much more favorable each district was to Biden or Trump than the nation as a whole in 2020.

The initial estimates in the Swing-O-Matic’s starting scenario reflect our best guess at the Electoral College and popular vote outcomes we would see in 2024 if every voter matches their predicted behavior from the 2020 election, accounting for changes in each state’s demographics and population, and the number of electoral votes awarded to each state, after the 2020 U.S. decennial census. Of course, that’s not likely to happen, which is where you, dear reader, come in. When you swing a certain group up 5 points for Democrats or down 5 points in turnout, for example, we adjust the Swing-O-Matic’s predicted group-level probabilities so they match the settings from your simulation to reflect the resulting outcomes in each state. Adjustments to multiple groups are run iteratively and additively, such that if any variable is adjusted, then further adjustments would be applied on top of that newly adjusted value.

Additional credits: Quantitative editing by Holly Fuong. Interactive and story editing by Tia Yang. Copy editing by Alex Kimball and Cooper Burton. Project management by Geoffrey Skelley. Original 538 Swing-O-Matic by David Wasserman and Aaron Bycoffe.

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Cooperative Election Study, IPUMS USA: Version 15.0, IPUMS NHGIS NHGIS.org, Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, PRRI’s American Values Atlas