UPDATED Sep. 14, 2021, at 8:59 AM

Latest Polls Of The California Recall Election

Voters will decide whether to remove Gov. Gavin Newsom and — if removed — whom to replace him with

Opponents of Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom of California have gathered enough signatures to trigger a recall election for him on Sept. 14 — only the fourth gubernatorial recall election in U.S. history. If a majority of recall voters vote “yes,” Newsom will be removed from office.

Do Californians want to remove Gavin Newsom from office?

An updating average of 2021 California gubernatorial recall election polls, accounting for each poll's quality, recency and sample size

A chart showing the polling averages since July 14 for whether to keep California Gov. Gavin Newsom in office or remove him, with dots representing each poll. “Keep” is polling at an average of 57.3 percent, and “Remove” is polling at an average of 41.5 percent.

Dates	Pollster	Sample		Keep	Remove	Leader	Adjusted Leader
Aug. 30-Sep. 13	C SurveyMonkey/Momentive Aug. 30-Sep. 13	3,985	LV	55%	41%	Keep +14	Keep +14
Sep. 11-13	A- Trafalgar Group Sep. 11-13	1,082	LV	53%	45%	Keep +9	Keep +11
Sep. 10-11	A- Emerson College Sep. 10-11	1,000	LV	60%	40%	Keep +20	Keep +19
Sep. 2-10	B Data for Progress Sep. 2-10	2,464	LV	57%	43%	Keep +14	Keep +14
Sep. 7-8	A SurveyUSA Sep. 7-8	930	LV	54%	41%	Keep +13	Keep +15
Sep. 6-7	B+ Suffolk University Sep. 6-7	500	LV	58%	41%	Keep +17	Keep +16
Aug. 30-Sep. 6	B/C University of California, Berkeley Aug. 30-Sep. 6	6,550	LV	60%	39%	Keep +22	Keep +18
Sep. 2-4	A- Trafalgar Group Sep. 2-4	1,079	LV	53%	43%	Keep +10	Keep +12
Aug. 27-Sep. 1	B+ YouGov Aug. 27-Sep. 1	1,955	LV	56%	44%	Keep +12	Keep +13
Aug. 26-29	A- Trafalgar Group Aug. 26-29	1,088	LV	52%	44%	Keep +8	Keep +10
Aug. 20-29	A/B Public Policy Institute of California Aug. 20-29	1,080	LV	58%	39%	Keep +19	Keep +16
Aug. 26-28	A SurveyUSA Aug. 26-28	816	LV	51%	43%	Keep +8	Keep +10
Aug. 25-27	B Gravis Marketing Aug. 25-27	729	LV	49%	44%	Keep +5	Keep +7
Aug. 23-25	B/C Targoz Market Research Aug. 23-25	787	LV	52%	42%	Keep +10	Keep +10
Aug. 22-25	B- Change Research Aug. 22-25	782	LV	57%	42%	Keep +15	Keep +13
Aug. 20-22	B/C Redfield & Wilton Strategies Aug. 20-22	1,000	LV	51%	43%	Keep +8	Keep +9
Aug. 6-12	B+ YouGov Aug. 6-12	1,534	LV	52%	48%	Keep +4	Keep +5
Aug. 2-4	A SurveyUSA Aug. 2-4	613	LV	40%	51%	Remove +11	Remove +9
Jul. 30-Aug. 1	A- Emerson College Jul. 30-Aug. 1	1,000	LV	48%	46%	Keep +3	Keep +2
Jul. 27-29	Core Decision Analytics Jul. 27-29	731	LV	51%	44%	Keep +7	Keep +5
Jul. 18-24	B/C University of California, Berkeley Jul. 18-24	2,783	LV	50%	47%	Keep +3	Tie
Jul. 19-20	A- Emerson College Jul. 19-20	1,085	RV	48%	43%	Keep +5	Keep +4
Jun. 11-16	B- Change Research Jun. 11-16	1,085	RV	54%	40%	Keep +14	Keep +12
Jun. 1-3	B/C Moore Information Jun. 1-3	682	LV	46%	49%	Remove +3	Remove +1
May 21-30	B/C Tulchin Research May 21-30	1,168	LV	52%	38%	Keep +14	Keep +13
May 9-18	A/B Public Policy Institute of California May 9-18	1,074	LV	57%	40%	Keep +17	Keep +14
Apr. 29-May 5	B/C University of California, Berkeley Apr. 29-May 5	10,289	RV	49%	36%	Keep +13	Keep +10
Apr. 30-May 2	A SurveyUSA Apr. 30-May 2	642	RV	47%	36%	Keep +11	Keep +13
Apr. 15-19	C/D McLaughlin & Associates Apr. 15-19	1,000	LV	45%	45%	Tie	Keep +3
Mar. 14-23	A/B Public Policy Institute of California Mar. 14-23	1,174	LV	56%	40%	Keep +16	Keep +13
Mar. 16-19	B/C Probolsky Research Mar. 16-19	520	LV	53%	35%	Keep +18	Keep +16
Mar. 12-14	A- Emerson College Mar. 12-14	1,045	RV	42%	38%	Keep +4	Keep +3
Feb. 12-14	B/C WPA Intelligence Feb. 12-14	645	LV	43%	47%	Remove +4	Remove +1
Jan. 23-29	B/C University of California, Berkeley Jan. 23-29	7,172	LV	49%	36%	Keep +13	Keep +10

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If Newsom is removed from office, the second question on the recall ballot will determine his replacement. Forty-six candidates are in the running, and it just takes a simple plurality to win, meaning a candidate could win with only minority support (there is no runoff). Californians can vote on the second question even if they vote against recalling Newsom on the first question.

Whom would Californians want to replace Gavin Newsom as governor?

An updating average of 2021 California gubernatorial replacement election polls, accounting for each poll's quality, recency and sample size

A chart showing the polling averages since July 14 for whom to replace California Gov. Gavin Newsom with (if his recall is successful), with dots representing each poll. Candidates with a polling average of at least 5 percent are listed by name. Republican Larry Elder is leading with an average of 29.7 percent.

Dates

Pollster

Sample

Leader

Adjusted Leader

Sep. 11-13

A-

Trafalgar Group

Sep. 11-13

1,082

Elder +32

Elder +29

Show all candidates+

Hide candidates-

Candidates+

Candidates-

Elder (R)	41%
Paffrath (D)	10%
Faulconer (R)	4%
McGowan (D)	4%
Kiley (R)	4%
Cox (R)	3%
Ross (D)	1%
Drake (D)	1%
Jenner (R)	1%

Sep. 10-11

A-

Emerson College

Sep. 10-11

1,000

Elder +24

Elder +23

Show all candidates+

Hide candidates-

Candidates+

Candidates-

Elder (R)	30%
Drake (D)	6%
Paffrath (D)	6%
Faulconer (R)	4%
Kiley (R)	4%
McGowan (D)	3%
Cox (R)	3%
Jenner (R)	2%
Ose (R)	1%

Sep. 2-10

Data for Progress

Sep. 2-10

2,557

Elder +15

Elder +18

Show all candidates+

Hide candidates-

Candidates+

Candidates-

Elder (R)	22%
Cox (R)	7%
Paffrath (D)	6%
Ross (D)	5%
McGowan (D)	4%
Faulconer (R)	4%
Kiley (R)	3%
Watts (D)	3%
Baade (D)	2%
Jenner (R)	1%

Sep. 7-8

SurveyUSA

Sep. 7-8

597

Elder +20

Elder +21

Show all candidates+

Hide candidates-

Candidates+

Candidates-

Elder (R)	29%
Paffrath (D)	9%
Cox (R)	8%
Faulconer (R)	6%
Baade (D)	4%
Drake (D)	4%
McGowan (D)	4%
Ross (D)	3%
Kiley (R)	3%
Kilpatrick (D)	2%
Ventresca (D)	2%
Watts (D)	2%
Jenner (R)	2%
Perez-Serrato (D)	1%

Sep. 6-7

B+

Suffolk University

Sep. 6-7

500

Elder +34

Elder +31

Show all candidates+

Hide candidates-

Candidates+

Candidates-

Elder (R)	39%
Paffrath (D)	5%
Faulconer (R)	5%
Cox (R)	4%
McGowan (D)	2%
Ross (D)	2%
Kiley (R)	2%
Gaines (R)	1%
Drake (D)	1%
Ventresca (D)	1%
Hewitt (L)	1%
Jenner (R)	1%
Baade (D)	0%
Perez-Serrato (D)	0%

Aug. 30-Sep. 6

B/C

University of California, Berkeley

Aug. 30-Sep. 6

4,441

Elder +28

Elder +26

Show all candidates+

Hide candidates-

Candidates+

Candidates-

Elder (R)	38%
Paffrath (D)	10%
Faulconer (R)	8%
Kiley (R)	4%
Cox (R)	4%
Ross (D)	4%
McGowan (D)	2%
Ventresca (D)	2%
Perez-Serrato (D)	1%
Drake (D)	1%
Hewitt (L)	1%
Baade (D)	1%
Watts (D)	1%
Kapelovitz (G)	1%
Jenner (R)	1%
Kilpatrick (D)	1%

Sep. 2-4

A-

Trafalgar Group

Sep. 2-4

1,079

Elder +19

Elder +17

Show all candidates+

Hide candidates-

Candidates+

Candidates-

Elder (R)	32%
Paffrath (D)	13%
Faulconer (R)	4%
Kiley (R)	4%
McGowan (D)	3%
Cox (R)	3%
Jenner (R)	1%

Aug. 27-Sep. 1

B+

YouGov

Aug. 27-Sep. 1

1,955

Elder +14

Elder +16

Show all candidates+

Hide candidates-

Candidates+

Candidates-

Elder (R)	20%
Paffrath (D)	6%
Faulconer (R)	4%
Cox (R)	4%
Kiley (R)	2%
Watts (D)	2%
McGowan (D)	2%
Trimino (R)	1%
Lodge (R)	1%
II (R)	1%
Kilpatrick (D)	1%
Loebs (N)	1%
Kaul (N)	1%
Drake (D)	1%
Ventresca (D)	1%
Hewitt (L)	1%
Baade (D)	1%
Collins (G)	1%
Ose (R)	1%
Martinez (R)	1%
Stoner (R)	1%
Moore (N)	1%
Lozano (R)	1%
Kapelovitz (G)	1%
Jenner (R)	1%
Ross (D)	1%
Gaines (R)	1%
Angelyne (N)	1%
Perez-Serrato (D)	1%
Killens (R)	0%
Singh (N)	0%
Wildstar (R)	0%
Richter (N)	0%
Lucey (N)	0%
Furin (R)	0%
Marciniak (N)	0%
Symmon (R)	0%
Roux (R)	0%
Papagan (N)	0%
Hanink (N)	0%
Gallucci (R)	0%
Hillberg (R)	0%
Bramante (R)	0%
Stephens (R)	0%
Mercuri (R)	0%
Zacky (R)	0%

Elder (R)	26%
Faulconer (R)	5%
Kiley (R)	3%
Cox (R)	3%
Jenner (R)	1%

Elder (R)	29%
Paffrath (D)	22%
Faulconer (R)	4%
Cox (R)	4%
Jenner (R)	1%
Ose (R)	0%

Elder (R)	27%
Cox (R)	6%
Paffrath (D)	6%
Ross (D)	5%
Baade (D)	5%
McGowan (D)	5%
Faulconer (R)	5%
Kiley (R)	5%
Perez-Serrato (D)	3%
Jenner (R)	2%
Ventresca (D)	2%
Drake (D)	2%

Elder (R)	21%
Paffrath (D)	12%
Faulconer (R)	5%
Kiley (R)	4%
Jenner (R)	3%
Cox (R)	3%
Hewitt (L)	2%
Kapelovitz (G)	2%
Gaines (R)	1%

Elder (R)	27%
Paffrath (D)	6%
McGowan (D)	5%
Kiley (R)	4%
Faulconer (R)	3%
Ross (D)	3%
Watts (D)	3%
Cox (R)	2%
Baade (D)	2%
Ose (R)	1%
Jenner (R)	1%

Paffrath (D)	13%
Cox (R)	13%
Elder (R)	12%
Faulconer (R)	7%
Kiley (R)	3%
Jenner (R)	3%
Ose (R)	2%

Elder (R)	23%
Paffrath (D)	13%
Cox (R)	3%
Faulconer (R)	3%
Kiley (R)	3%
Jenner (R)	2%
Gaines (R)	2%
Ose (R)	2%
Hewitt (L)	1%

Paffrath (D)	27%
Elder (R)	23%
Cox (R)	10%
Faulconer (R)	5%
Ose (R)	4%
Jenner (R)	4%
Kiley (R)	3%

Elder (R)	23%
Cox (R)	7%
Jenner (R)	7%
Kiley (R)	5%
Faulconer (R)	4%
Paffrath (D)	1%

Elder (R)	10%
Cox (R)	4%
McGowan (D)	3%
Faulconer (R)	3%
Paffrath (D)	3%
Kiley (R)	2%
Ross (D)	2%
Watts (D)	1%
Lodge (R)	1%
Kilpatrick (D)	1%
Wildstar (R)	1%
Hewitt (L)	1%
Baade (D)	1%
Ose (R)	1%
Stoner (R)	1%
Lucey (N)	1%
Lozano (R)	1%
Bramante (R)	1%
Gaines (R)	1%
Kapelovitz (G)	1%
Jenner (R)	1%
Trimino (R)	1%
Angelyne (N)	1%
Perez-Serrato (D)	1%
Marciniak (N)	1%
Hillberg (R)	0%
Killens (R)	0%
Martinez (R)	0%
Stephens (R)	0%
Richter (N)	0%
Mercuri (R)	0%
Moore (N)	0%
Zacky (R)	0%
Singh (N)	0%
Loebs (N)	0%
Furin (R)	0%
Kaul (N)	0%
Drake (D)	0%
II (R)	0%
Ventresca (D)	0%
Symmon (R)	0%
Roux (R)	0%
Papagan (N)	0%
Hanink (N)	0%
Gallucci (R)	0%
Collins (G)	0%

Elder (R)	12%
Faulconer (R)	8%
Cox (R)	7%
Paffrath (D)	5%
Kiley (R)	3%
Baade (D)	2%
Watts (D)	2%
Jenner (R)	2%
Ross (D)	2%
McGowan (D)	2%
Drake (D)	1%
Kapelovitz (G)	1%
Ose (R)	1%
Ventresca (D)	1%
Singh (N)	1%
Hewitt (L)	1%
Angelyne (N)	1%
Lozano (R)	0%
Bramante (R)	0%
Mercuri (R)	0%
Trimino (R)	0%
Gaines (R)	0%
Killens (R)	0%
Lodge (R)	0%
Stephens (R)	0%
Gallucci (R)	0%
II (R)	0%
Kilpatrick (D)	0%
Wildstar (R)	0%
Loebs (N)	0%
Zacky (R)	0%
Roux (R)	0%
Hanink (N)	0%
Collins (G)	0%
Martinez (R)	0%
Stoner (R)	0%
Richter (N)	0%
Lucey (N)	0%
Moore (N)	0%

Elder (R)	16%
Faulconer (R)	6%
Cox (R)	6%
Kiley (R)	4%
Jenner (R)	4%
Paffrath (D)	2%

Cox (R)	24%
Faulconer (R)	12%
Jenner (R)	6%
Ose (R)	4%

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