UPDATED Jul. 8, 2019 at 10:30 AM

2019-20 CARMELO NBA Player Projections

FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO* identifies similar players throughout NBA history and uses them to develop a probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player’s future might look like.

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DeMar DeRozan

Weighted average of past three seasons
Bad
Avg.
Good
Percentile
Vitals 50th
Height 6'7"
Weight 220
Draft position 9
Scoring
True shooting % 55%
Free throw % 83%
Usage % 29%
Tendencies
3 pt. frequency 9%
FT frequency 36%
Passing/ball handling
Assist % 26%
Turnover % 11%
Defense/rebounding
Rebound % 8%
Block % 0.9%
Steal % 1.6%
Defensive +/- -1.2
Wins above replacement projection
Category: AVERAGE STARTER
5-yr market value: $51.8m

Confidence interval

Projection

'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27051015202.82.22.52.01.10.50.3-0.10.0-0.12.82.22.52.01.10.50.3-0.10.0-0.1
Performance of the 10 most comparable players
1
R. Hamilton
Year: 2009
Similarity: 61
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
2
Joe Johnson
Year: 2012
Similarity: 61
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
3
Mitch Richmond
Year: 1996
Similarity: 53
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
4
Rudy Gay
Year: 2017
Similarity: 52
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
5
Jalen Rose
Year: 2003
Similarity: 52
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
6
Caron Butler
Year: 2011
Similarity: 51
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
7
R. Blackman
Year: 1990
Similarity: 51
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
8
George Gervin
Year: 1983
Similarity: 50
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
9
Marques Johnson
Year: 1987
Similarity: 49
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
10
Reggie Theus
Year: 1988
Similarity: 49
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27

DeMar DeRozan

  • Spurs
  • San Antonio Spurs
  • Shooting Guard
  • 30 years old
The fine print
Ratings 2017 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26
Offensive +/- Reg. season +2.6 +3.6 +0.6 +1.0 +0.5 +0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -0.5 -0.9
Playoffs -1.0 -2.0 +1.5 +0.6 +0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -0.9 -0.9 -1.2
Combined +1.1 +1.4 +0.9 +0.8 +0.3 +0.1 -0.3 -0.7 -0.7 -1.0
Defensive +/- Reg. season -2.2 -1.8 -0.6 -1.0 -1.0 -1.2 -1.0 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0
Playoffs +0.6 -1.9 -2.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.5 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.3
Combined -1.0 -1.8 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.4 -1.2 -1.3 -1.2 -1.2
Total +/- Reg. season +0.3 +1.8 0.0 +0.0 -0.5 -0.9 -1.1 -1.6 -1.6 -1.8
Playoffs -0.5 -3.9 -0.8 -0.7 -1.2 -1.7 -1.8 -2.3 -2.3 -2.5
Combined +0.0 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.9 -1.3 -1.5 -2.0 -1.9 -2.2
Per 82 games 2017 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26
WAR Reg. season 3.1 5.5 2.8 2.4 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0
Playoffs 2.3 -3.1 1.7 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1
Combined 2.8 2.2 2.5 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.1
Market value Reg. season $22.4m $41.7m $22.4m $20.8m $14.4m $9.5m $6.7m $3.2m $2.9m $2.4m
Playoffs $16.7m -$21.3m $14.4m $14.6m $8.6m $4.0m $2.4m -$0.4m $0.7m $0.8m
Combined $20.2m $17.5m $19.9m $17.7m $11.5m $6.7m $4.5m $1.4m $1.8m $1.6m
Minutes played Reg. season 2,620 2,711 2,688 2,264 1,941 1,609 1,184 775 437 251
Playoffs 3,059 2,903 2,940 2,410 2,123 1,813 1,410 1,003 634 385
Combined 2,789 2,785 2,765 2,337 2,032 1,711 1,297 889 536 318
The fine print
Based on a combination of regular-season and playoff performances
Year Off. +/- Def. +/- Total +/- Mkt. value Min. played
2017 +1.1 -1.0 +0.0 $20.2m 2,789
2018 +1.4 -1.8 -0.5 $17.5m 2,785
2019 +0.9 -1.1 -0.3 $19.9m 2,765
2020 +0.8 -1.1 -0.3 $17.7m 2,337
2021 +0.3 -1.1 -0.9 $11.5m 2,032
2022 +0.1 -1.4 -1.3 $6.7m 1,711
2023 -0.3 -1.2 -1.5 $4.5m 1,297
2024 -0.7 -1.3 -2.0 $1.4m 889
2025 -0.7 -1.2 -1.9 $1.8m 536
2026 -1.0 -1.2 -2.2 $1.6m 318

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