UPDATED Jul. 8, 2019 at 10:30 AM

2019-20 CARMELO NBA Player Projections

FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO* identifies similar players throughout NBA history and uses them to develop a probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player’s future might look like.

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Dwight Howard

Weighted average of past three seasons
Bad
Avg.
Good
Percentile
Vitals 50th
Height 6'11"
Weight 265
Draft position 1
Scoring
True shooting % 60%
Free throw % 58%
Usage % 22%
Tendencies
3 pt. frequency <1%
FT frequency 66%
Passing/ball handling
Assist % 6%
Turnover % 16%
Defense/rebounding
Rebound % 22%
Block % 3.3%
Steal % 1.2%
Defensive +/- +1.3
Wins above replacement projection
Category: DEFENSIVE SPECIALIST
5-yr market value: $0.5m

Confidence interval

Projection

'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27051015201.40.5-0.2-0.30.00.0-0.4-0.2-0.1-0.21.40.5-0.2-0.30.00.0-0.4-0.2-0.1-0.2
Performance of the 10 most comparable players
1
Alonzo Mourning
Year: 2004
Similarity: 37
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
2
Rony Seikaly
Year: 1999
Similarity: 25
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
3
Tyson Chandler
Year: 2017
Similarity: 24
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
4
Will Perdue
Year: 2000
Similarity: 19
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
5
Erick Dampier
Year: 2010
Similarity: 16
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
6
Derrick Coleman
Year: 2002
Similarity: 15
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
7
Marcin Gortat
Year: 2018
Similarity: 15
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
8
Bill Walton
Year: 1987
Similarity: 13
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
9
Robert Parish
Year: 1988
Similarity: 12
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
10
Bob Lanier
Year: 1983
Similarity: 12
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27

Dwight Howard

  • Grizzlies
  • Memphis Grizzlies
  • Center
  • 34 years old
The fine print
Ratings 2017 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26
Offensive +/- Reg. season -1.2 -1.4 -2.5 -2.4 -2.4 -2.7 -3.9 -3.4 -2.6 -3.8
Playoffs -3.6 -2.3 -2.4 -2.7 -3.8 -3.4 -2.6 -3.7
Combined -1.8 -1.4 -2.5 -2.4 -2.4 -2.7 -3.8 -3.4 -2.6 -3.7
Defensive +/- Reg. season +2.4 +1.4 +0.7 +1.3 +1.9 +2.0 +1.0 +1.0 +1.0 +1.0
Playoffs +3.1 +1.4 +1.9 +2.1 +1.1 +1.0 +1.0 +1.0
Combined +2.6 +1.4 +0.7 +1.4 +1.9 +2.1 +1.0 +1.0 +1.0 +1.0
Total +/- Reg. season +1.2 0.0 -1.8 -1.0 -0.5 -0.7 -2.8 -2.5 -1.7 -2.8
Playoffs -0.4 -1.0 -0.5 -0.6 -2.7 -2.4 -1.6 -2.7
Combined +0.7 0.0 -1.8 -1.0 -0.5 -0.6 -2.8 -2.4 -1.6 -2.8
Per 82 games 2017 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26
WAR Reg. season 1.9 0.5 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2
Playoffs -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2
Combined 1.4 0.5 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2
Market value Reg. season $14.3m $5.2m $0.3m -$0.9m $1.4m $1.4m -$1.4m -$0m $0.8m $0.5m
Playoffs $0.6m -$0.8m $1.6m $1.5m -$2m -$0.2m $0.8m $0.6m
Combined $10.6m $5.2m $0.3m -$0.9m $1.5m $1.4m -$1.7m -$0.1m $0.8m $0.6m
Minutes played Reg. season 2,199 2,463 230 915 497 358 268 184 190 120
Playoffs 2,146 1,024 615 464 329 209 200 120
Combined 2,184 2,463 230 970 556 411 298 197 195 120
The fine print
Based on a combination of regular-season and playoff performances
Year Off. +/- Def. +/- Total +/- Mkt. value Min. played
2017 -1.8 +2.6 +0.7 $10.6m 2,184
2018 -1.4 +1.4 0.0 $5.2m 2,463
2019 -2.5 +0.7 -1.8 $0.3m 230
2020 -2.4 +1.4 -1.0 -$0.9m 970
2021 -2.4 +1.9 -0.5 $1.5m 556
2022 -2.7 +2.1 -0.6 $1.4m 411
2023 -3.8 +1.0 -2.8 -$1.7m 298
2024 -3.4 +1.0 -2.4 -$0.1m 197
2025 -2.6 +1.0 -1.6 $0.8m 195
2026 -3.7 +1.0 -2.8 $0.6m 120

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