UPDATED Jul. 8, 2019 at 10:30 AM

2019-20 CARMELO NBA Player Projections

FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO* identifies similar players throughout NBA history and uses them to develop a probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player’s future might look like.

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Jameer Nelson

  • Point Guard
  • 37 years old
Weighted average of past three seasons
Bad
Avg.
Good
Percentile
Vitals 50th
Height 6'1"
Weight 190
Draft position 20
Scoring
True shooting % 51%
Free throw % 77%
Usage % 14%
Tendencies
3 pt. frequency 50%
FT frequency 9%
Passing/ball handling
Assist % 24%
Turnover % 20%
Defense/rebounding
Rebound % 5%
Block % 0.3%
Steal % 1.3%
Defensive +/- -1.8
Wins above replacement projection
Category: WAY PAST HIS PRIME
5-yr market value: -$2.4m

Confidence interval

Projection

'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27051015201.2-1.80.0-0.5-0.2-0.20.00.00.00.01.2-1.80.0-0.5-0.2-0.20.00.00.00.0
Performance of the 10 most comparable players
1
Jason Terry
Year: 2016
Similarity: 38
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
2
Lindsey Hunter
Year: 2009
Similarity: 36
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
3
Avery Johnson
Year: 2003
Similarity: 28
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
4
Mark Jackson
Year: 2003
Similarity: 27
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
5
Derek Fisher
Year: 2012
Similarity: 26
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
6
Dell Curry
Year: 2002
Similarity: 21
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
7
D. Armstrong
Year: 2006
Similarity: 21
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
8
Sam Mitchell
Year: 2002
Similarity: 18
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
9
Rod Strickland
Year: 2004
Similarity: 17
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
10
Stacey Augmon
Year: 2006
Similarity: 15
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27

Jameer Nelson

  • Point Guard
  • 37 years old
The fine print
Ratings 2017 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26
Offensive +/- Reg. season +0.4 -2.6 -1.6 -1.4 -1.8
Playoffs -1.6 -1.4 -1.8
Combined +0.4 -2.6 -1.6 -1.4 -1.8
Defensive +/- Reg. season -1.1 -2.2 -2.4 -1.6 -1.8
Playoffs -2.4 -1.6 -1.8
Combined -1.1 -2.2 -2.4 -1.6 -1.8
Total +/- Reg. season -0.7 -4.8 -4.0 -3.0 -3.6
Playoffs -4.0 -3.0 -3.6
Combined -0.7 -4.8 -4.0 -3.0 -3.6
Per 82 games 2017 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26
WAR Reg. season 1.2 -1.8 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2
Playoffs -0.4 -0.2 -0.2
Combined 1.2 -1.8 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2
Market value Reg. season $9.2m -$11.3m -$2.3m -$0.2m $0.1m $2.0m $2.1m $2.2m $2.3m
Playoffs -$1.7m -$0.2m $0.1m $2.0m $2.1m $2.2m $2.3m
Combined $9.2m -$11.3m -$2m -$0.2m $0.1m $2.0m $2.1m $2.2m $2.3m
Minutes played Reg. season 2,045 1,013 389 324 190
Playoffs 336 324 190
Combined 2,045 1,013 362 324 190
The fine print
Based on a combination of regular-season and playoff performances
Year Off. +/- Def. +/- Total +/- Mkt. value Min. played
2017 +0.4 -1.1 -0.7 $9.2m 2,045
2018 -2.6 -2.2 -4.8 -$11.3m 1,013
2019 0
2020 -1.6 -2.4 -4.0 -$2m 362
2021 -1.4 -1.6 -3.0 -$0.2m 324
2022 -1.8 -1.8 -3.6 $0.1m 190
2023 $2.0m 0
2024 $2.1m 0
2025 $2.2m 0
2026 $2.3m 0

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