UPDATED Jul. 8, 2019 at 10:30 AM

2019-20 CARMELO NBA Player Projections

FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO* identifies similar players throughout NBA history and uses them to develop a probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player’s future might look like.

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JJ Redick

Weighted average of past three seasons
Bad
Avg.
Good
Percentile
Vitals 50th
Height 6'4"
Weight 200
Draft position 11
Scoring
True shooting % 61%
Free throw % 89%
Usage % 21%
Tendencies
3 pt. frequency 57%
FT frequency 24%
Passing/ball handling
Assist % 13%
Turnover % 9%
Defense/rebounding
Rebound % 4%
Block % 0.5%
Steal % 0.7%
Defensive +/- -1.6
Wins above replacement projection
Category: SCRAPPY VETERAN
5-yr market value: $30.8m

Confidence interval

Projection

'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27051015201.03.14.21.50.70.30.10.20.00.01.03.14.21.50.70.30.10.20.00.0
Performance of the 10 most comparable players
1
Ray Allen
Year: 2011
Similarity: 55
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
2
Joe Dumars
Year: 1999
Similarity: 54
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
3
Reggie Miller
Year: 2001
Similarity: 52
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
4
Jason Terry
Year: 2013
Similarity: 47
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
5
Dell Curry
Year: 2000
Similarity: 47
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
6
Derek Fisher
Year: 2010
Similarity: 46
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
7
C. Billups
Year: 2012
Similarity: 45
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
8
Jamal Crawford
Year: 2016
Similarity: 43
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
9
Dale Ellis
Year: 1996
Similarity: 42
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
10
Michael Finley
Year: 2009
Similarity: 41
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27

JJ Redick

  • Pelicans
  • New Orleans Pelicans
  • Shooting Guard
  • 35 years old
The fine print
Ratings 2017 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26
Offensive +/- Reg. season +2.1 +2.4 +2.2 +1.5 +1.0 +0.8 +0.9 +0.7 -0.6 +1.0
Playoffs -3.3 +3.3 +0.4 +1.6 +1.0 +0.8 +0.9 +0.7 -0.6 +1.0
Combined +0.4 +2.8 +1.4 +1.5 +1.0 +0.8 +0.9 +0.7 -0.6 +1.0
Defensive +/- Reg. season -2.6 -2.1 -1.7 -2.0 -1.9 -2.1 -2.4 -1.4 -1.8 -3.1
Playoffs +1.0 -2.7 +1.6 -2.0 -1.9 -2.1 -2.4 -1.4 -1.8 -3.1
Combined -1.4 -2.4 -0.2 -2.0 -1.9 -2.1 -2.4 -1.4 -1.8 -3.1
Total +/- Reg. season -0.5 +0.3 +0.5 -0.4 -0.9 -1.3 -1.5 -0.7 -2.4 -2.1
Playoffs -2.2 +0.6 +1.9 -0.4 -0.9 -1.3 -1.5 -0.7 -2.4 -2.1
Combined -1.1 +0.5 +1.2 -0.4 -0.9 -1.3 -1.5 -0.7 -2.4 -2.1
Per 82 games 2017 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26
WAR Reg. season 1.7 2.6 3.2 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Playoffs -0.5 3.9 5.5 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Combined 1.0 3.1 4.2 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Market value Reg. season $12.7m $20.4m $25.4m $13.4m $7.2m $4.0m $2.6m $3.5m $2.0m $2.2m
Playoffs -$2.1m $29.7m $42.2m $13.9m $7.7m $4.5m $2.8m $3.8m $2.0m $2.2m
Combined $8.2m $24.0m $32.6m $13.6m $7.5m $4.2m $2.7m $3.7m $2.0m $2.2m
Minutes played Reg. season 2,198 2,116 2,379 1,832 1,132 749 299 227 63 24
Playoffs 2,413 2,804 2,569 1,890 1,222 858 375 267 70 25
Combined 2,263 2,381 2,461 1,861 1,177 803 337 247 67 24
The fine print
Based on a combination of regular-season and playoff performances
Year Off. +/- Def. +/- Total +/- Mkt. value Min. played
2017 +0.4 -1.4 -1.1 $8.2m 2,263
2018 +2.8 -2.4 +0.5 $24.0m 2,381
2019 +1.4 -0.2 +1.2 $32.6m 2,461
2020 +1.5 -2.0 -0.4 $13.6m 1,861
2021 +1.0 -1.9 -0.9 $7.5m 1,177
2022 +0.8 -2.1 -1.3 $4.2m 803
2023 +0.9 -2.4 -1.5 $2.7m 337
2024 +0.7 -1.4 -0.7 $3.7m 247
2025 -0.6 -1.8 -2.4 $2.0m 67
2026 +1.0 -3.1 -2.1 $2.2m 24

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