CARMELO NBA Player Projections

*FiveThirtyEight's Career-Arc Regression Model Estimator with Local Optimization (CARMELO) is a system that forecasts a player's future performance. The similarity score is an index measuring how comparable one player is to another, scaled such that a score of zero is average similarity and 100 is the highest possible degree of similarity. Plus-minus is derived from Box Plus/Minus, a measure of the number of points per 100 possessions that a player contributed to his team, relative to an average NBA player. All player ages are as of Feb. 1, 2017. Minutes played is prorated to 82 games.