UPDATED Jul. 8, 2019 at 10:30 AM

2019-20 CARMELO NBA Player Projections

FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO* identifies similar players throughout NBA history and uses them to develop a probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player’s future might look like.

More NBA:Every team’s Elo historyOur 2019-20 NBA predictions

These projections are outdated. See our latest NBA player projections
How good will
be?
Random player
Pick a player:
Random player

Keita Bates‑Diop

Weighted average of past three seasons
Bad
Avg.
Good
Percentile
Vitals 50th
Height 6'9"
Weight 229
Draft position 48
Scoring
True shooting % 49%
Free throw % 64%
Usage % 14%
Tendencies
3 pt. frequency 37%
FT frequency 20%
Passing/ball handling
Assist % 5%
Turnover % 8%
Defense/rebounding
Rebound % 9%
Block % 2.4%
Steal % 1.7%
Defensive +/- -0.1
Wins above replacement projection
Category: DEFENSIVE SPECIALIST
5-yr market value: $11.6m

Confidence interval

Projection

'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'2705101520-0.4-0.30.10.10.20.10.10.1-0.4-0.30.10.10.20.10.10.1
Performance of the 10 most comparable players
1
Q. Pondexter
Year: 2012
Similarity: 69
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
2
Jud Buechler
Year: 1992
Similarity: 65
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
3
Terry Mills
Year: 1992
Similarity: 63
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
4
James Wilkes
Year: 1982
Similarity: 62
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
5
Wes Iwundu
Year: 2019
Similarity: 61
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
6
Desmond Mason
Year: 2002
Similarity: 60
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
7
Pascal Siakam
Year: 2018
Similarity: 59
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
8
Sterling Brown
Year: 2019
Similarity: 59
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
9
DeMarre Carroll
Year: 2011
Similarity: 59
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
10
Johnny Rogers
Year: 1988
Similarity: 58
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27

Keita Bates‑Diop

  • Timberwolves
  • Minnesota Timberwolves
  • Power Forward
  • 24 years old
The fine print
Ratings 2017 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26
Offensive +/- Reg. season -2.8 -2.0 -1.5 -1.4 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3
Playoffs -2.0 -1.5 -1.4 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3
Combined -2.8 -2.0 -1.5 -1.4 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3
Defensive +/- Reg. season -0.1 +0.1 +0.3 +0.3 +0.4 +0.3 +0.3 +0.3
Playoffs +0.1 +0.3 +0.3 +0.4 +0.3 +0.3 +0.3
Combined -0.1 +0.1 +0.3 +0.3 +0.4 +0.3 +0.3 +0.3
Total +/- Reg. season -2.9 -1.9 -1.2 -1.0 -0.9 -1.0 -1.1 -1.0
Playoffs -1.9 -1.2 -1.0 -0.9 -1.0 -1.1 -1.0
Combined -2.9 -1.9 -1.2 -1.0 -0.9 -1.0 -1.1 -1.0
Per 82 games 2017 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26
WAR Reg. season -0.4 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Playoffs -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Combined -0.4 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Market value Reg. season -$1.6m -$0.4m $2.3m $2.9m $3.7m $3.1m $3.0m $3.2m
Playoffs -$0.3m $2.3m $2.9m $3.7m $3.1m $3.0m $3.2m
Combined -$1.6m -$0.3m $2.3m $2.9m $3.7m $3.1m $3.0m $3.2m
Minutes played Reg. season 503 853 780 704 675 559 493 395
Playoffs 792 755 692 674 566 506 410
Combined 503 822 767 698 674 563 500 403
The fine print
Based on a combination of regular-season and playoff performances
Year Off. +/- Def. +/- Total +/- Mkt. value Min. played
2017 0
2018 0
2019 -2.8 -0.1 -2.9 -$1.6m 503
2020 -2.0 +0.1 -1.9 -$0.3m 822
2021 -1.5 +0.3 -1.2 $2.3m 767
2022 -1.4 +0.3 -1.0 $2.9m 698
2023 -1.3 +0.4 -0.9 $3.7m 674
2024 -1.3 +0.3 -1.0 $3.1m 563
2025 -1.3 +0.3 -1.1 $3.0m 500
2026 -1.3 +0.3 -1.0 $3.2m 403

Comments