UPDATED Jul. 8, 2019 at 10:30 AM

2019-20 CARMELO NBA Player Projections

FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO* identifies similar players throughout NBA history and uses them to develop a probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player’s future might look like.

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Malcolm Brogdon

Weighted average of past three seasons
Bad
Avg.
Good
Percentile
Vitals 50th
Height 6'5"
Weight 215
Draft position 36
Scoring
True shooting % 59%
Free throw % 88%
Usage % 20%
Tendencies
3 pt. frequency 33%
FT frequency 19%
Passing/ball handling
Assist % 17%
Turnover % 11%
Defense/rebounding
Rebound % 7%
Block % 0.6%
Steal % 1.3%
Defensive +/- -0.4
Wins above replacement projection
Category: ROTATION PLAYER
5-yr market value: $82.9m

Confidence interval

Projection

'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27051015201.3-0.33.32.32.01.61.51.10.70.61.3-0.33.32.32.01.61.51.10.70.6
Performance of the 10 most comparable players
1
Ricky Pierce
Year: 1987
Similarity: 59
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
2
George Hill
Year: 2013
Similarity: 54
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
3
Jeremy Lamb
Year: 2019
Similarity: 51
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
4
Hubert Davis
Year: 1997
Similarity: 50
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
5
Wesley Person
Year: 1998
Similarity: 50
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
6
Lewis Lloyd
Year: 1986
Similarity: 49
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
7
Blue Edwards
Year: 1993
Similarity: 49
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
8
Kevin Gamble
Year: 1993
Similarity: 49
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
9
Allen Crabbe
Year: 2019
Similarity: 49
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
10
Will Barton
Year: 2018
Similarity: 48
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27

Malcolm Brogdon

  • Pacers
  • Indiana Pacers
  • Point Guard
  • 27 years old
The fine print
Ratings 2017 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26
Offensive +/- Reg. season +1.6 +0.5 +2.0 +1.1 +1.1 +1.0 +1.0 +0.8 +0.8 +0.7
Playoffs -1.2 -3.7 +2.2 +1.1 +1.0 +0.9 +0.9 +0.7 +0.6 +0.6
Combined +0.7 -1.1 +2.0 +1.1 +1.0 +1.0 +0.9 +0.7 +0.7 +0.6
Defensive +/- Reg. season -0.7 -1.3 0.0 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -0.8 -0.9 -1.2 -1.0
Playoffs -2.9 -0.7 +0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 -0.9 -1.0 -1.2 -1.1
Combined -1.4 -1.0 +0.2 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -1.2 -1.1
Total +/- Reg. season +0.9 -0.7 +1.9 +0.4 +0.3 +0.1 +0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3
Playoffs -4.1 -4.2 +2.9 +0.2 +0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.6
Combined -0.7 -2.1 +2.3 +0.3 +0.2 +0.1 +0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4
Per 82 games 2017 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26
WAR Reg. season 3.0 0.8 3.8 2.3 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.6
Playoffs -3.1 -3.0 2.8 2.3 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.6
Combined 1.3 -0.3 3.3 2.3 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.6
Market value Reg. season $21.7m $7.4m $29.7m $20.1m $18.4m $16.4m $16.0m $12.7m $9.7m $8.3m
Playoffs -$20.2m -$20.1m $22.7m $20.0m $18.5m $16.6m $16.3m $13.0m $10.0m $8.7m
Combined $10.3m -$0.9m $26.3m $20.1m $18.5m $16.5m $16.1m $12.9m $9.9m $8.5m
Minutes played Reg. season 1,982 1,436 1,832 1,899 1,718 1,517 1,391 1,143 946 667
Playoffs 2,501 2,179 1,082 2,042 1,888 1,693 1,589 1,344 1,157 860
Combined 2,124 1,662 1,469 1,970 1,803 1,605 1,490 1,243 1,051 763
The fine print
Based on a combination of regular-season and playoff performances
Year Off. +/- Def. +/- Total +/- Mkt. value Min. played
2017 +0.7 -1.4 -0.7 $10.3m 2,124
2018 -1.1 -1.0 -2.1 -$0.9m 1,662
2019 +2.0 +0.2 +2.3 $26.3m 1,469
2020 +1.1 -0.8 +0.3 $20.1m 1,970
2021 +1.0 -0.9 +0.2 $18.5m 1,803
2022 +1.0 -0.9 +0.1 $16.5m 1,605
2023 +0.9 -0.9 +0.0 $16.1m 1,490
2024 +0.7 -0.9 -0.2 $12.9m 1,243
2025 +0.7 -1.2 -0.5 $9.9m 1,051
2026 +0.6 -1.1 -0.4 $8.5m 763

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