UPDATED Jul. 8, 2019 at 10:30 AM

2019-20 CARMELO NBA Player Projections

FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO* identifies similar players throughout NBA history and uses them to develop a probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player’s future might look like.

More NBA:Every team’s Elo historyOur 2019-20 NBA predictions

These projections are outdated. See our latest NBA player projections
How good will
be?
Random player
Pick a player:
Random player

Pascal Siakam

Weighted average of past three seasons
Bad
Avg.
Good
Percentile
Vitals 50th
Height 6'9"
Weight 230
Draft position 27
Scoring
True shooting % 59%
Free throw % 73%
Usage % 19%
Tendencies
3 pt. frequency 22%
FT frequency 26%
Passing/ball handling
Assist % 13%
Turnover % 11%
Defense/rebounding
Rebound % 12%
Block % 2.0%
Steal % 1.5%
Defensive +/- +1.8
Wins above replacement projection
Category: GOOD STARTER
5-yr market value: $155.9m

Confidence interval

Projection

'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'2705101520-1.01.26.23.94.03.12.82.31.71.2-1.01.26.23.94.03.12.82.31.71.2
Performance of the 10 most comparable players
1
Alex English
Year: 1980
Similarity: 55
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
2
Gene Banks
Year: 1985
Similarity: 54
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
3
Larry Nance
Year: 1985
Similarity: 54
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
4
Tayshaun Prince
Year: 2006
Similarity: 53
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
5
George Gervin
Year: 1978
Similarity: 52
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
6
Josh Howard
Year: 2006
Similarity: 51
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
7
Markieff Morris
Year: 2016
Similarity: 49
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
8
Sam Perkins
Year: 1987
Similarity: 48
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
9
Tom Boswell
Year: 1980
Similarity: 47
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
10
Paul Millsap
Year: 2011
Similarity: 46
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27

Pascal Siakam

  • Raptors
  • Toronto Raptors
  • Power Forward
  • 25 years old
The fine print
Ratings 2017 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26
Offensive +/- Reg. season -3.6 +0.4 +1.9 +0.7 +0.8 +0.4 +0.3 +0.1 -0.2 -0.3
Playoffs -3.8 -1.4 +1.1 +0.5 +0.5 +0.2 +0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.6
Combined -3.6 -0.3 +1.4 +0.6 +0.6 +0.3 +0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.5
Defensive +/- Reg. season +0.1 +1.1 +2.8 +1.4 +1.5 +1.3 +1.3 +1.2 +1.2 +1.1
Playoffs -14.6 -0.5 +0.7 +1.2 +1.2 +1.0 +1.0 +1.0 +0.9 +0.8
Combined -0.7 +0.5 +1.5 +1.3 +1.3 +1.2 +1.2 +1.1 +1.1 +1.0
Total +/- Reg. season -3.5 +1.4 +4.7 +2.2 +2.2 +1.8 +1.6 +1.4 +1.1 +0.8
Playoffs -18.4 -1.8 +1.7 +1.6 +1.7 +1.2 +1.1 +0.8 +0.5 +0.2
Combined -4.4 +0.3 +2.8 +1.9 +1.9 +1.5 +1.4 +1.1 +0.8 +0.5
Per 82 games 2017 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26
WAR Reg. season -1.1 2.3 8.2 4.2 4.2 3.4 3.0 2.5 1.9 1.4
Playoffs -0.8 -0.6 4.8 3.7 3.8 2.9 2.6 2.1 1.6 1.1
Combined -1.0 1.2 6.2 3.9 4.0 3.1 2.8 2.3 1.7 1.2
Market value Reg. season -$6.9m $18.5m $62.8m $35.0m $37.8m $32.0m $30.5m $26.7m $22.0m $17.6m
Playoffs -$4.4m -$2.9m $37.3m $31.1m $33.7m $27.8m $26.2m $22.6m $18.2m $14.0m
Combined -$5.9m $10.3m $47.5m $33.0m $35.7m $29.9m $28.3m $24.6m $20.1m $15.8m
Minutes played Reg. season 859 1,679 2,548 2,311 2,314 2,141 2,010 1,835 1,614 1,360
Playoffs 82 1,468 3,044 2,446 2,450 2,275 2,141 1,972 1,764 1,511
Combined 560 1,598 2,846 2,379 2,382 2,208 2,076 1,903 1,689 1,436
The fine print
Based on a combination of regular-season and playoff performances
Year Off. +/- Def. +/- Total +/- Mkt. value Min. played
2017 -3.6 -0.7 -4.4 -$5.9m 560
2018 -0.3 +0.5 +0.3 $10.3m 1,598
2019 +1.4 +1.5 +2.8 $47.5m 2,846
2020 +0.6 +1.3 +1.9 $33.0m 2,379
2021 +0.6 +1.3 +1.9 $35.7m 2,382
2022 +0.3 +1.2 +1.5 $29.9m 2,208
2023 +0.2 +1.2 +1.4 $28.3m 2,076
2024 0.0 +1.1 +1.1 $24.6m 1,903
2025 -0.3 +1.1 +0.8 $20.1m 1,689
2026 -0.5 +1.0 +0.5 $15.8m 1,436

Comments