UPDATED Jul. 8, 2019 at 10:30 AM

2019-20 CARMELO NBA Player Projections

FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO* identifies similar players throughout NBA history and uses them to develop a probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player’s future might look like.

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Rajon Rondo

Weighted average of past three seasons
Bad
Avg.
Good
Percentile
Vitals 50th
Height 6'1"
Weight 186
Draft position 21
Scoring
True shooting % 49%
Free throw % 61%
Usage % 17%
Tendencies
3 pt. frequency 31%
FT frequency 9%
Passing/ball handling
Assist % 38%
Turnover % 22%
Defense/rebounding
Rebound % 9%
Block % 0.4%
Steal % 2.0%
Defensive +/- -1.8
Wins above replacement projection
Category: SCRUB
5-yr market value: -$5m

Confidence interval

Projection

'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27051015200.10.3-1.9-0.9-0.3-0.1-0.1-0.10.00.00.10.3-1.9-0.9-0.3-0.1-0.1-0.10.00.0
Performance of the 10 most comparable players
1
Jameer Nelson
Year: 2016
Similarity: 43
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
2
Bimbo Coles
Year: 2002
Similarity: 38
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
3
Luke Ridnour
Year: 2015
Similarity: 34
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
4
Mark Jackson
Year: 1999
Similarity: 33
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
5
D. Stoudamire
Year: 2008
Similarity: 31
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
6
Anthony Johnson
Year: 2009
Similarity: 31
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
7
Kenny Anderson
Year: 2005
Similarity: 31
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
8
Vinny Del Negro
Year: 2000
Similarity: 30
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
9
Jo Jo White
Year: 1981
Similarity: 29
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27
10
Terry Porter
Year: 1997
Similarity: 28
05101520'162017'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26'27

Rajon Rondo

  • Lakers
  • Los Angeles Lakers
  • Point Guard
  • 33 years old
The fine print
Ratings 2017 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26
Offensive +/- Reg. season -1.4 -0.5 -2.2 -1.9 -1.9 -2.2 -1.4 -2.1 -2.3 -2.2
Playoffs +3.3 -1.3 -1.7 -1.7 -2.0 -1.1 -1.9 -2.1 -2.0
Combined -0.7 -0.8 -2.2 -1.8 -1.8 -2.1 -1.3 -2.0 -2.2 -2.1
Defensive +/- Reg. season -0.9 -1.9 -2.1 -1.5 -1.4 -1.2 -1.9 -0.8 -0.5 -1.6
Playoffs -1.0 +0.7 -1.3 -1.1 -1.0 -1.6 -0.6 -0.3 -1.3
Combined -0.9 -0.6 -2.1 -1.4 -1.3 -1.1 -1.8 -0.7 -0.4 -1.4
Total +/- Reg. season -2.3 -2.3 -4.3 -3.4 -3.2 -3.4 -3.2 -2.9 -2.8 -3.8
Playoffs +2.2 -0.5 -3.0 -2.8 -2.9 -2.8 -2.5 -2.4 -3.3
Combined -1.6 -1.5 -4.3 -3.2 -3.0 -3.2 -3.0 -2.7 -2.6 -3.6
Per 82 games 2017 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26
WAR Reg. season -0.6 -0.6 -1.9 -1.1 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0
Playoffs 2.0 1.8 -0.8 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Combined 0.1 0.3 -1.9 -0.9 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0
Market value Reg. season -$3.3m -$2.6m -$12.9m -$6.7m -$1.5m $0.8m $0.8m $1.4m $1.8m $2.1m
Playoffs $14.7m $14.4m -$4.5m -$0.8m $1.0m $1.1m $1.6m $1.9m $2.1m
Combined $1.6m $3.5m -$12.9m -$5.6m -$1.1m $0.9m $0.9m $1.5m $1.8m $2.1m
Minutes played Reg. season 1,843 1,705 1,369 1,096 447 130 150 101 65 16
Playoffs 916 2,752 1,092 490 148 161 102 65 16
Combined 1,590 2,082 1,369 1,094 469 139 156 102 65 16
The fine print
Based on a combination of regular-season and playoff performances
Year Off. +/- Def. +/- Total +/- Mkt. value Min. played
2017 -0.7 -0.9 -1.6 $1.6m 1,590
2018 -0.8 -0.6 -1.5 $3.5m 2,082
2019 -2.2 -2.1 -4.3 -$12.9m 1,369
2020 -1.8 -1.4 -3.2 -$5.6m 1,094
2021 -1.8 -1.3 -3.0 -$1.1m 469
2022 -2.1 -1.1 -3.2 $0.9m 139
2023 -1.3 -1.8 -3.0 $0.9m 156
2024 -2.0 -0.7 -2.7 $1.5m 102
2025 -2.2 -0.4 -2.6 $1.8m 65
2026 -2.1 -1.4 -3.6 $2.1m 16

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