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Trump score How often Nelson voted in line with Trump’s position | Trump margin Trump’s share of the vote in the 2016 election in the member’s state or district minus Clinton’s | Predicted score How often Nelson was expected to support Trump based on Trump’s 2016 margin | Trump plus-minus Difference between Nelson’s actual and predicted Trump-support scores | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Career | 43.4% | +1.2 | 56.8% | -13.4 |
| 115th Congress | 43.4% | +1.2 | 56.8% | -13.4 |
Trump score How often Nelson votes in line with Trump’s position | 43.4% |
|---|---|
| Trump margin Trump’s share of the vote in the 2016 election in the member’s state or district minus Clinton’s | +1.2 |
Predicted score How often Nelson is expected to support Trump based on Trump’s 2016 margin | 56.8% |
Trump plus-minus Difference between Nelson’s actual and predicted Trump-support scores | -13.4 |
| Date | Measure | Trump Position | Nelson Vote | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement | Plus-minus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec. 18, 2018 | Making changes to federal sentencing and prison laws (87-12) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump?  | Likelihood of agreement 94.5% | Plus-minus +5.5 |
| Dec. 13, 2018 | Ending U.S. military assistance to Saudi-led forces in the war in Yemen (56-41) | Trump Position oppose | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump?  | Likelihood of agreement 28.9% | Plus-minus -28.9 |
| Dec. 12, 2018 | Repeal of a rule allowing disclosure of less information by politically active nonprofit groups (50-49) | Trump Position oppose | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 36.9% | Plus-minus -36.9 |
| Dec. 11, 2018 | The 2018 farm bill (conference committee report) (87-13) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 90.4% | Plus-minus +9.6 |
| Oct. 10, 2018 | Repeal of a rule expanding short-term health insurance plans (50-50) | Trump Position oppose | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 37.8% | Plus-minus -37.8 |
| Oct. 6, 2018 | Nomination of Brett M. Kavanaugh to be associate justice of the Supreme Court (50-48) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 39.5% | Plus-minus -39.5 |
| Sept. 17, 2018 | Broad legislation to address the opioid crisis (99-1) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 99.3% | Plus-minus +0.7 |
| July 23, 2018 | Nomination of Robert L. Wilkie to be secretary of veterans affairs (86-9) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 98.4% | Plus-minus +1.6 |
| July 11, 2018 | Nonbinding motion calling for congressional approval of national security tariffs (88-11) | Trump Position oppose | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 4.4% | Plus-minus -4.4 |
| June 28, 2018 | The 2018 farm bill (86-11) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 91.4% | Plus-minus +8.6 |
| June 20, 2018 | Rescinding previously approved but unspent funding (48-50) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 35.8% | Plus-minus -35.8 |
| May 23, 2018 | Expanding private care options for veterans (92-5) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 94.7% | Plus-minus +5.3 |
| May 17, 2018 | Nomination of Gina Haspel to be director of the CIA (54-45) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 44.5% | Plus-minus +55.5 |
| May 16, 2018 | Reinstating net neutrality rules (52-47) | Trump Position oppose | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 34.6% | Plus-minus -34.6 |
| April 26, 2018 | Nomination of Mike Pompeo to be secretary of state (57-42) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 50.9% | Plus-minus +49.1 |
| April 18, 2018 | Repeal of guidance meant to protect borrowers from discriminatory markups on auto loans (51-47) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 39.3% | Plus-minus -39.3 |
| March 23, 2018 | The 2018 fiscal year appropriations bill (65-32) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 68.3% | Plus-minus +31.7 |
| March 14, 2018 | Rolling back some bank regulations put in place by the Dodd-Frank Act (67-31) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 80.2% | Plus-minus +19.8 |
| Feb. 15, 2018 | White House immigration proposal (39-60) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 28.8% | Plus-minus -28.8 |
| Feb. 15, 2018 | Bipartisan immigration proposal (54-45) | Trump Position oppose | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 36.1% | Plus-minus -36.1 |
| Feb. 9, 2018 | Two-year budget bill (71-28) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 71.0% | Plus-minus +29.0 |
| Feb. 8, 2018 | Department of Defense Appropriations Act (55-44) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 45.7% | Plus-minus +54.3 |
| Jan. 29, 2018 | Banning abortions after 20 weeks of pregnancy (51-46) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote Not voting | Agree with Trump? —— | Likelihood of agreement 40.2% | Plus-minus —— |
| Jan. 24, 2018 | Nomination of Alex Azar to be secretary of health and human services (55-43) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 48.9% | Plus-minus -48.9 |
| Jan. 22, 2018 | Extension of government funding for three weeks, ending the shutdown (81-18) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 83.6% | Plus-minus +16.4 |
| Jan. 19, 2018 | Extension of government funding for four weeks (50-49) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 36.9% | Plus-minus -36.9 |
| Jan. 18, 2018 | Reauthorizing warrantless spying program as part of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (65-34) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 63.7% | Plus-minus +36.3 |
| Dec. 21, 2017 | Extension of government funding for four weeks (66-32) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 68.3% | Plus-minus +31.7 |
| Dec. 20, 2017 | Overhauling the tax code (final version) (51-48) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 39.7% | Plus-minus -39.7 |
| Dec. 7, 2017 | Extension of government funding for two weeks (81-14) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 85.3% | Plus-minus +14.7 |
| Dec. 5, 2017 | Nomination of Kirstjen Nielsen to be secretary of homeland security (62-37) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 66.7% | Plus-minus +33.3 |
| Dec. 2, 2017 | Overhauling the tax code (Senate version) (51-49) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 39.7% | Plus-minus -39.7 |
| Oct. 25, 2017 | Repeal of a rule banning some financial companies from using mandatory arbitration clauses (51-50) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 38.2% | Plus-minus -38.2 |
| Oct. 24, 2017 | Disaster relief for Puerto Rico and other areas (82-17) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 92.8% | Plus-minus +7.2 |
| Oct. 19, 2017 | Fiscal year 2018 budget resolution (51-49) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 39.8% | Plus-minus -39.8 |
| Sept. 7, 2017 | Raising debt limit/extending government funding/Hurricane Harvey relief (80-17) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 88.2% | Plus-minus +11.8 |
| Aug. 1, 2017 | Nomination of Christopher A. Wray to be director of the FBI (92-5) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 98.2% | Plus-minus +1.8 |
| July 28, 2017 | Senate “skinny repeal” health care bill (49-51) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 35.7% | Plus-minus -35.7 |
| July 27, 2017 | Imposing sanctions on Russia, Iran and North Korea (98-2) | Trump Position oppose | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 2.0% | Plus-minus -2.0 |
| July 26, 2017 | Repealing major parts of the Affordable Care Act, with a transition period for replacement (45-55) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 31.7% | Plus-minus -31.7 |
| July 25, 2017 | The American Health Care Act of 2017 (Senate motion to proceed) (51-50) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 37.4% | Plus-minus -37.4 |
| June 14, 2017 | Imposing sanctions on Russia (97-2) | Trump Position oppose | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 0.8% | Plus-minus -0.8 |
| June 13, 2017 | Opposing the sale of some arms to Saudi Arabia (47-53) | Trump Position oppose | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 42.1% | Plus-minus +57.9 |
| May 11, 2017 | Nomination of Robert Lighthizer to be United States trade representative (82-14) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 89.3% | Plus-minus +10.7 |
| May 10, 2017 | Repeal of a rule requiring energy companies to reduce waste and emissions (49-51) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 35.7% | Plus-minus -35.7 |
| May 4, 2017 | The 2017 fiscal year appropriations bill (79-18) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 86.8% | Plus-minus +13.2 |
| May 3, 2017 | Repeal of a rule that allowed a new type of state-based retirement plan (50-49) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 38.8% | Plus-minus -38.8 |
| April 27, 2017 | Nomination of R. Alexander Acosta to be secretary of labor (60-38) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 60.1% | Plus-minus +39.9 |
| April 24, 2017 | Nomination of Sonny Perdue to be secretary of agriculture (87-11) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 96.4% | Plus-minus +3.6 |
| April 7, 2017 | Nomination of Neil Gorsuch to be associate justice of the Supreme Court (54-45) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 42.9% | Plus-minus -42.9 |
| April 6, 2017 | Whether to keep the Senate cloture requirement for Supreme Court nominees at 60 votes (48-52) | Trump Position oppose | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 40.6% | Plus-minus -40.6 |
| March 30, 2017 | Repeal of a rule requiring state and local governments to distribute federal funds to qualified health centers even if they perform abortions (51-50) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 37.4% | Plus-minus -37.4 |
| March 30, 2017 | Repeal of a rule that allowed a new type of retirement plan established by local governments (50-49) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 38.9% | Plus-minus -38.9 |
| March 23, 2017 | Repeal of an FCC rule barring internet providers from sharing data on customers’ activities (50-48) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 39.8% | Plus-minus -39.8 |
| March 22, 2017 | Repeal of a Department of Labor rule regarding records of work-related injuries and illnesses (50-48) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 39.8% | Plus-minus -39.8 |
| March 15, 2017 | Nomination of Daniel Coats to be director of national intelligence (85-12) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 89.9% | Plus-minus +10.1 |
| March 14, 2017 | Repeal of a Department of Labor rule on drug testing of applicants for unemployment compensation (51-48) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 39.8% | Plus-minus -39.8 |
| March 9, 2017 | Repeal of a Department of Education rule on school accountability (50-49) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 38.3% | Plus-minus -38.3 |
| March 8, 2017 | Repeal of a Department of Education rule on teacher preparation programs (59-40) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 61.7% | Plus-minus +38.3 |
| March 7, 2017 | Repeal of changes to Bureau of Land Management planning rules (51-48) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 39.8% | Plus-minus -39.8 |
| March 6, 2017 | Repeal of a rule requiring some federal contractors to report labor violations (49-48) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 38.5% | Plus-minus -38.5 |
| March 2, 2017 | Nomination of Rick Perry to be secretary of energy (62-37) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 67.3% | Plus-minus -67.3 |
| March 2, 2017 | Nomination of Ben Carson to be secretary of housing and urban development (58-41) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 54.6% | Plus-minus -54.6 |
| March 1, 2017 | Nomination of Ryan Zinke to be secretary of the interior (68-31) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 79.5% | Plus-minus +20.5 |
| Feb. 28, 2017 | Nomination of Wilbur L. Ross Jr. to be secretary of commerce (72-27) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 75.7% | Plus-minus +24.3 |
| Feb. 17, 2017 | Nomination of Scott Pruitt to be administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (52-46) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 39.6% | Plus-minus -39.6 |
| Feb. 16, 2017 | Nomination of Mick Mulvaney to be director of the Office of Management and Budget (51-49) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 39.0% | Plus-minus -39.0 |
| Feb. 15, 2017 | Repeal of a rule requiring the Social Security Administration to submit information to the national background-check system (57-43) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 49.5% | Plus-minus -49.5 |
| Feb. 14, 2017 | Nomination of Linda E. McMahon to be administrator of the Small Business Administration (81-19) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 88.8% | Plus-minus +11.2 |
| Feb. 13, 2017 | Nomination of David J. Shulkin to be secretary of veterans affairs (100-0) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 100.0% | Plus-minus 0.0 |
| Feb. 13, 2017 | Nomination of Steven T. Mnuchin to be secretary of the treasury (53-47) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 41.1% | Plus-minus -41.1 |
| Feb. 10, 2017 | Nomination of Tom Price to be secretary of health and human services (52-47) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 41.7% | Plus-minus -41.7 |
| Feb. 8, 2017 | Nomination of Jeff Sessions to be attorney general (52-47) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 41.0% | Plus-minus -41.0 |
| Feb. 7, 2017 | Nomination of Betsy DeVos to be secretary of education (51-50) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 37.4% | Plus-minus -37.4 |
| Feb. 3, 2017 | Repeal of a rule requiring energy companies to disclose payments to foreign governments (52-47) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 40.7% | Plus-minus -40.7 |
| Feb. 2, 2017 | Repeal of the stream protection rule (54-45) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 43.2% | Plus-minus -43.2 |
| Feb. 1, 2017 | Nomination of Rex W. Tillerson to be secretary of state (56-43) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 47.3% | Plus-minus -47.3 |
| Jan. 31, 2017 | Nomination of Elaine L. Chao to be secretary of transportation (93-6) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 98.4% | Plus-minus +1.6 |
| Jan. 24, 2017 | Nomination of Nikki R. Haley to be ambassador to the United Nations (96-4) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 97.2% | Plus-minus +2.8 |
| Jan. 23, 2017 | Nomination of Mike Pompeo to be director of the CIA (66-32) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 66.6% | Plus-minus -66.6 |
| Jan. 20, 2017 | Nomination of John F. Kelly to be secretary of homeland security (88-11) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 93.3% | Plus-minus +6.7 |
| Jan. 20, 2017 | Nomination of James Mattis to be secretary of defense (98-1) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 99.8% | Plus-minus +0.2 |
| Jan. 12, 2017 | Waiver allowing James Mattis to become secretary of defense (81-17) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 87.4% | Plus-minus +12.6 |
| Jan. 12, 2017 | Budget resolution to repeal the Affordable Care Act (51-48) | Trump Position support | Nelson Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 39.8% | Plus-minus -39.8 |
| Average | 43.4% | 56.8% | -13.4 | |||
See more about Bill Nelson at ProPublica
Members’ “likelihood of agreement” scores on each vote are calculated using a regression for which the input is Trump’s 2016 vote margin in every member’s state or district and the output is the probability that a member will vote for the bill. The plus-minus on each vote is the difference between the member’s vote (100 percent for a “yes,” 0 percent for a “no”) and the likelihood of agreement. Averages do not include missed votes. How this works »
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