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Trump score How often Lummis votes in line with Trump’s position | Trump margin Trump’s share of the vote in the 2016 election in the member’s state or district minus Clinton’s | Predicted score How often Lummis is expected to support Trump based on Trump’s 2016 margin | Trump plus-minus Difference between Lummis’s actual and predicted Trump-support scores | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Career | 50.0% | +46.3 | 22.5% | +27.5 |
| 117th Congress | 50.0% | +46.3 | 22.5% | +27.5 |
Trump score How often Lummis votes in line with Trump’s position | 50.0% |
|---|---|
| Trump margin Trump’s share of the vote in the 2016 election in the member’s state or district minus Clinton’s | +46.3 |
Predicted score How often Lummis is expected to support Trump based on Trump’s 2016 margin | 22.5% |
Trump plus-minus Difference between Lummis’s actual and predicted Trump-support scores | +27.5 |
| Date | Measure | Trump Position | Lummis Vote | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement | Plus-minus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan. 7 | Objecting to Pennsylvania’s presidential electors (7-92) | Trump Position support | Lummis Vote Yes | Agree with Trump?  | Likelihood of agreement 24.5% | Plus-minus +75.5 |
| Jan. 6 | Objecting to Arizona’s presidential electors (6-93) | Trump Position support | Lummis Vote No | Agree with Trump?  | Likelihood of agreement 20.5% | Plus-minus -20.5 |
| Average | 50.0% | 22.5% | +27.5 | |||
See more about Cynthia M. Lummis at ProPublica
Members’ “likelihood of agreement” scores on each vote are calculated using a regression for which the input is Trump’s 2016 vote margin in every member’s state or district and the output is the probability that a member will vote for the bill. The plus-minus on each vote is the difference between the member’s vote (100 percent for a “yes,” 0 percent for a “no”) and the likelihood of agreement. Averages do not include missed votes. How this works »
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