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UPDATED Jul. 18, 2019 at 12:42 PM

Tracking Congress In The Age Of Trump

An updating tally of how often every member of the House and the Senate votes with or against the president.

Fred Keller

R
Republican representative for Pennsylvania’s 12th District
Trump score
How often Keller votes in line with Trump’s position
Trump margin
Trump’s share of the vote in the 2016 election in the member’s state or district minus Clinton’s
Predicted score
How often Keller is expected to support Trump based on Trump’s 2016 margin
Trump plus-minus
Difference between Keller’s actual and predicted Trump-support scores
Career
100.0%
+36.4 
99.0%
+1.0 
116th Congress
100.0%
+36.4 
99.0%
+1.0 
Trump score
How often Keller votes in line with Trump’s position
100.0%
Trump margin
Trump’s share of the vote in the 2016 election in the member’s state or district minus Clinton’s
+36.4 
Predicted score
How often Keller is expected to support Trump based on Trump’s 2016 margin
99.0%
Trump plus-minus
Difference between Keller’s actual and predicted Trump-support scores
+1.0 

116th Congress (2019-20)

Republican representative for Pennsylvania’s 12th District
DateMeasureTrump PositionKeller VoteAgree with Trump?Likelihood of agreementPlus-minus
July 18 Raising the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour (231-199)
Trump Position
oppose
Keller Vote
No
Agree with Trump?
Likelihood of agreement
100.0%
Plus-minus
0.0
July 17 Holding the attorney general and secretary of commerce in contempt of Congress (230-198)
Trump Position
oppose
Keller Vote
No
Agree with Trump?
Likelihood of agreement
100.0%
Plus-minus
0.0
July 17 Blocking the sale of arms to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (237-190)
Trump Position
oppose
Keller Vote
No
Agree with Trump?
Likelihood of agreement
99.8%
Plus-minus
+0.2
July 17 Blocking the sale of arms to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (238-190)
Trump Position
oppose
Keller Vote
No
Agree with Trump?
Likelihood of agreement
99.8%
Plus-minus
+0.2
July 17 Motion to table articles of impeachment against President Trump (332-95)
Trump Position
support
Keller Vote
Yes
Agree with Trump?
Likelihood of agreement
99.8%
Plus-minus
+0.2
July 16 Condeming President Trump’s comments about four congresswomen as racist (240-187)
Trump Position
oppose
Keller Vote
No
Agree with Trump?
Likelihood of agreement
100.0%
Plus-minus
0.0
July 12 National Defense Authorization Act (220-197)
Trump Position
oppose
Keller Vote
No
Agree with Trump?
Likelihood of agreement
93.8%
Plus-minus
+6.2
June 26 Funding the Treasury Department, the IRS, the Executive Office of the President and other agencies (224-196)
Trump Position
oppose
Keller Vote
No
Agree with Trump?
Likelihood of agreement
100.0%
Plus-minus
0.0
June 25 Providing humanitarian aid for the U.S.-Mexico border (230-195)
Trump Position
oppose
Keller Vote
No
Agree with Trump?
Likelihood of agreement
97.1%
Plus-minus
+2.9
June 25 Funding the Department of Commerce, the Department of Justice and several other parts of the government (227-194)
Trump Position
oppose
Keller Vote
No
Agree with Trump?
Likelihood of agreement
100.0%
Plus-minus
0.0
June 19 Funding much of the federal government, including the departments of Defense, Labor, Education, State, and Health and Human Services (226-203)
Trump Position
oppose
Keller Vote
No
Agree with Trump?
Likelihood of agreement
97.8%
Plus-minus
+2.2
June 4 Creating a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants who came to the U.S. as children (237-187)
Trump Position
oppose
Keller Vote
No
Agree with Trump?
Likelihood of agreement
100.0%
Plus-minus
0.0
Average
100.0%
99.0%
+1.0

Members’ “likelihood of agreement” scores on each vote are calculated using a regression for which the input is Trump’s 2016 vote margin in every member’s state or district and the output is the probability that a member will vote for the bill. The plus-minus on each vote is the difference between the member’s vote (100 percent for a “yes,” 0 percent for a “no”) and the likelihood of agreement. Averages do not include missed votes. How this works »

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