UPDATED Jan. 13, 2021 at 5:11 PM

Tracking Congress In The Age Of Trump

An updating tally of how often every member of the House and the Senate votes with or against the president.

Jay Obernolte

R
Republican representative for California’s 8th District
Trump score
How often Obernolte votes in line with Trump’s position
Trump margin
Trump’s share of the vote in the 2016 election in the member’s state or district minus Clinton’s
Predicted score
How often Obernolte is expected to support Trump based on Trump’s 2016 margin
Trump plus-minus
Difference between Obernolte’s actual and predicted Trump-support scores
Career
100.0%
+15.1 
54.9%
+45.1 
117th Congress
100.0%
+15.1 
54.9%
+45.1 
Trump score
How often Obernolte votes in line with Trump’s position
100.0%
Trump margin
Trump’s share of the vote in the 2016 election in the member’s state or district minus Clinton’s
+15.1 
Predicted score
How often Obernolte is expected to support Trump based on Trump’s 2016 margin
54.9%
Trump plus-minus
Difference between Obernolte’s actual and predicted Trump-support scores
+45.1 

117th Congress (2021-22)

Republican representative for California’s 8th District
DateMeasureTrump PositionObernolte VoteAgree with Trump?Likelihood of agreementPlus-minus
Jan. 13 Impeaching President Trump on a charge of incitement of insurrection (232-197)
Trump Position
oppose
Obernolte Vote
No
Agree with Trump?
Likelihood of agreement
82.6%
Plus-minus
+17.4
Jan. 7 Objecting to Pennsylvania’s presidential electors (138-282)
Trump Position
support
Obernolte Vote
Yes
Agree with Trump?
Likelihood of agreement
45.3%
Plus-minus
+54.7
Jan. 6 Objecting to Arizona’s presidential electors (121-303)
Trump Position
support
Obernolte Vote
Yes
Agree with Trump?
Likelihood of agreement
36.7%
Plus-minus
+63.3
Average
100.0%
54.9%
+45.1

Members’ “likelihood of agreement” scores on each vote are calculated using a regression for which the input is Trump’s 2016 vote margin in every member’s state or district and the output is the probability that a member will vote for the bill. The plus-minus on each vote is the difference between the member’s vote (100 percent for a “yes,” 0 percent for a “no”) and the likelihood of agreement. Averages do not include missed votes. How this works »

Comments