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Trump score How often Kyl voted in line with Trump’s position | Trump margin Trump’s share of the vote in the 2016 election in the member’s state or district minus Clinton’s | Predicted score How often Kyl was expected to support Trump based on Trump’s 2016 margin | Trump plus-minus Difference between Kyl’s actual and predicted Trump-support scores | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Career | 71.4% | +3.5 | 63.8% | +7.6 |
| 115th Congress | 71.4% | +3.5 | 63.8% | +7.6 |
Trump score How often Kyl votes in line with Trump’s position | 71.4% |
|---|---|
| Trump margin Trump’s share of the vote in the 2016 election in the member’s state or district minus Clinton’s | +3.5 |
Predicted score How often Kyl is expected to support Trump based on Trump’s 2016 margin | 63.8% |
Trump plus-minus Difference between Kyl’s actual and predicted Trump-support scores | +7.6 |
| Date | Measure | Trump Position | Kyl Vote | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement | Plus-minus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec. 18, 2018 | Making changes to federal sentencing and prison laws (87-12) | Trump Position support | Kyl Vote No | Agree with Trump?  | Likelihood of agreement 93.5% | Plus-minus -93.5 |
| Dec. 13, 2018 | Ending U.S. military assistance to Saudi-led forces in the war in Yemen (56-41) | Trump Position oppose | Kyl Vote No | Agree with Trump?  | Likelihood of agreement 33.2% | Plus-minus +66.8 |
| Dec. 12, 2018 | Repeal of a rule allowing disclosure of less information by politically active nonprofit groups (50-49) | Trump Position oppose | Kyl Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 42.3% | Plus-minus +57.7 |
| Dec. 11, 2018 | The 2018 farm bill (conference committee report) (87-13) | Trump Position support | Kyl Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 89.5% | Plus-minus -89.5 |
| Oct. 10, 2018 | Repeal of a rule expanding short-term health insurance plans (50-50) | Trump Position oppose | Kyl Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 43.2% | Plus-minus +56.8 |
| Oct. 6, 2018 | Nomination of Brett M. Kavanaugh to be associate justice of the Supreme Court (50-48) | Trump Position support | Kyl Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 45.7% | Plus-minus +54.3 |
| Sept. 17, 2018 | Broad legislation to address the opioid crisis (99-1) | Trump Position support | Kyl Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 99.3% | Plus-minus +0.7 |
| Average | 71.4% | 63.8% | +7.6 | |||
See more about Jon Kyl at ProPublica
Members’ “likelihood of agreement” scores on each vote are calculated using a regression for which the input is Trump’s 2016 vote margin in every member’s state or district and the output is the probability that a member will vote for the bill. The plus-minus on each vote is the difference between the member’s vote (100 percent for a “yes,” 0 percent for a “no”) and the likelihood of agreement. Averages do not include missed votes. How this works »
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