UPDATED Jan. 13, 2021 at 5:11 PM

Tracking Congress In The Age Of Trump

An updating tally of how often every member of the House and the Senate votes with or against the president.

Jon Kyl

R
Former Republican senator for Arizona
Trump score
How often Kyl voted in line with Trump’s position
Trump margin
Trump’s share of the vote in the 2016 election in the member’s state or district minus Clinton’s
Predicted score
How often Kyl was expected to support Trump based on Trump’s 2016 margin
Trump plus-minus
Difference between Kyl’s actual and predicted Trump-support scores
Career
71.4%
+3.5 
63.8%
+7.6 
115th Congress
71.4%
+3.5 
63.8%
+7.6 
Trump score
How often Kyl votes in line with Trump’s position
71.4%
Trump margin
Trump’s share of the vote in the 2016 election in the member’s state or district minus Clinton’s
+3.5 
Predicted score
How often Kyl is expected to support Trump based on Trump’s 2016 margin
63.8%
Trump plus-minus
Difference between Kyl’s actual and predicted Trump-support scores
+7.6 

115th Congress (2017-18)

Republican senator for Arizona
DateMeasureTrump PositionKyl VoteAgree with Trump?Likelihood of agreementPlus-minus
Dec. 18, 2018 Making changes to federal sentencing and prison laws (87-12)
Trump Position
support
Kyl Vote
No
Agree with Trump?
Likelihood of agreement
93.5%
Plus-minus
-93.5
Dec. 13, 2018 Ending U.S. military assistance to Saudi-led forces in the war in Yemen (56-41)
Trump Position
oppose
Kyl Vote
No
Agree with Trump?
Likelihood of agreement
33.2%
Plus-minus
+66.8
Dec. 12, 2018 Repeal of a rule allowing disclosure of less information by politically active nonprofit groups (50-49)
Trump Position
oppose
Kyl Vote
No
Agree with Trump?
Likelihood of agreement
42.3%
Plus-minus
+57.7
Dec. 11, 2018 The 2018 farm bill (conference committee report) (87-13)
Trump Position
support
Kyl Vote
No
Agree with Trump?
Likelihood of agreement
89.5%
Plus-minus
-89.5
Oct. 10, 2018 Repeal of a rule expanding short-term health insurance plans (50-50)
Trump Position
oppose
Kyl Vote
No
Agree with Trump?
Likelihood of agreement
43.2%
Plus-minus
+56.8
Oct. 6, 2018 Nomination of Brett M. Kavanaugh to be associate justice of the Supreme Court (50-48)
Trump Position
support
Kyl Vote
Yes
Agree with Trump?
Likelihood of agreement
45.7%
Plus-minus
+54.3
Sept. 17, 2018 Broad legislation to address the opioid crisis (99-1)
Trump Position
support
Kyl Vote
Yes
Agree with Trump?
Likelihood of agreement
99.3%
Plus-minus
+0.7
Average
71.4%
63.8%
+7.6

Members’ “likelihood of agreement” scores on each vote are calculated using a regression for which the input is Trump’s 2016 vote margin in every member’s state or district and the output is the probability that a member will vote for the bill. The plus-minus on each vote is the difference between the member’s vote (100 percent for a “yes,” 0 percent for a “no”) and the likelihood of agreement. Averages do not include missed votes. How this works »

Comments