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Trump score How often Kelly votes in line with Trump’s position | Trump margin Trump’s share of the vote in the 2016 election in the member’s state or district minus Clinton’s | Predicted score How often Kelly is expected to support Trump based on Trump’s 2016 margin | Trump plus-minus Difference between Kelly’s actual and predicted Trump-support scores | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Career | 20.0% | +3.5 | 26.2% | -6.2 |
| 117th Congress | 0.0% | +3.5 | 4.5% | -4.5 |
| 116th Congress | 33.3% | +3.5 | 40.7% | -7.4 |
Trump score How often Kelly votes in line with Trump’s position | 20.0% |
|---|---|
| Trump margin Trump’s share of the vote in the 2016 election in the member’s state or district minus Clinton’s | +3.5 |
Predicted score How often Kelly is expected to support Trump based on Trump’s 2016 margin | 26.2% |
Trump plus-minus Difference between Kelly’s actual and predicted Trump-support scores | -6.2 |
| Date | Measure | Trump Position | Kelly Vote | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement | Plus-minus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan. 7 | Objecting to Pennsylvania’s presidential electors (7-92) | Trump Position support | Kelly Vote No | Agree with Trump?  | Likelihood of agreement 4.8% | Plus-minus -4.8 |
| Jan. 6 | Objecting to Arizona’s presidential electors (6-93) | Trump Position support | Kelly Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 4.2% | Plus-minus -4.2 |
| Average | 0.0% | 4.5% | -4.5 | |||
| Date | Measure | Trump Position | Kelly Vote | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement | Plus-minus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec. 28, 2020 | Overriding President Trump’s veto of the National Defense Authorization Act (81-13) | Trump Position oppose | Kelly Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 13.9% | Plus-minus -13.9 |
| Dec. 21, 2020 | Pandemic aid bill (92-6) | Trump Position support | Kelly Vote Yes | Agree with Trump?  | Likelihood of agreement 94.7% | Plus-minus +5.3 |
| Dec. 11, 2020 | The National Defense Authorization Act (84-13) | Trump Position oppose | Kelly Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 13.5% | Plus-minus -13.5 |
| Average | 33.3% | 40.7% | -7.4 | |||
See more about Mark Kelly at ProPublica
Members’ “likelihood of agreement” scores on each vote are calculated using a regression for which the input is Trump’s 2016 vote margin in every member’s state or district and the output is the probability that a member will vote for the bill. The plus-minus on each vote is the difference between the member’s vote (100 percent for a “yes,” 0 percent for a “no”) and the likelihood of agreement. Averages do not include missed votes. How this works »
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