Get more FiveThirtyEight
- Terms of Use
- Privacy Policy
- Your California Privacy Rights
- Children's Online Privacy Policy
- Interest-Based Ads
© 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. All rights reserved.
Trump score How often Casey votes in line with Trump's position | Trump margin Trump's share of the vote in the 2016 election in Pennsylvania minus Clinton's | Predicted score How often Casey is expected to support Trump based on Trump's 2016 margin | Trump plus-minus Difference between Casey’s actual and predicted Trump-support scores |
|---|---|---|---|
31.3% | +0.7 | 55.2% | -23.9 |
Trump score How often Casey votes in line with Trump's position | 31.3% |
|---|---|
| Trump margin Trump's share of the vote in the 2016 election in Pennsylvania minus Clinton's | +0.7 |
Predicted score How often Casey is expected to support Trump based on Trump's 2016 margin | 55.2% |
Trump plus-minus Difference between Casey’s actual and predicted Trump-support scores | -23.9 |
| Date | Measure | Trump Position | Casey Vote | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement | Plus-minus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec. 13 | Ending U.S. military assistance to Saudi-led forces in the war in Yemen (56-41) | Trump Position oppose | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump?  | Likelihood of agreement 28.1% | Plus-minus -28.1 |
| Dec. 12 | Repeal of a rule allowing disclosure of less information by politically active nonprofit groups (50-49) | Trump Position oppose | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 35.8% | Plus-minus -35.8 |
| Dec. 11 | The 2018 farm bill (conference committee report) (87-13) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump?  | Likelihood of agreement 90.5% | Plus-minus +9.5 |
| Oct. 10 | Repeal of a rule expanding short-term health insurance plans (50-50) | Trump Position oppose | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 36.7% | Plus-minus -36.7 |
| Oct. 6 | Nomination of Brett M. Kavanaugh to be associate justice of the Supreme Court (50-48) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 38.3% | Plus-minus -38.3 |
| Sept. 17 | Broad legislation to address the opioid crisis (99-1) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 99.4% | Plus-minus +0.6 |
| July 23 | Nomination of Robert L. Wilkie to be secretary of veterans affairs (86-9) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 98.3% | Plus-minus +1.7 |
| July 11 | Nonbinding motion calling for congressional approval of national security tariffs (88-11) | Trump Position oppose | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 4.2% | Plus-minus -4.2 |
| June 28 | The 2018 farm bill (86-11) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 91.5% | Plus-minus +8.5 |
| June 20 | Rescinding previously approved but unspent funding (48-50) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 34.7% | Plus-minus -34.7 |
| May 23 | Expanding private care options for veterans (92-5) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 94.7% | Plus-minus +5.3 |
| May 17 | Nomination of Gina Haspel to be director of the CIA (54-45) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 43.2% | Plus-minus -43.2 |
| May 16 | Reinstating net neutrality rules (52-47) | Trump Position oppose | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 33.6% | Plus-minus -33.6 |
| April 26 | Nomination of Mike Pompeo to be secretary of state (57-42) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 48.7% | Plus-minus -48.7 |
| April 18 | Repeal of guidance meant to protect borrowers from discriminatory markups on auto loans (51-47) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 38.1% | Plus-minus -38.1 |
| March 23 | The 2018 fiscal year appropriations bill (65-32) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 68.4% | Plus-minus +31.6 |
| March 14 | Rolling back some bank regulations put in place by the Dodd-Frank Act (67-31) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 78.5% | Plus-minus -78.5 |
| Feb. 15 | White House immigration proposal (39-60) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 28.2% | Plus-minus -28.2 |
| Feb. 15 | Bipartisan immigration proposal (54-45) | Trump Position oppose | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 35.3% | Plus-minus -35.3 |
| Feb. 9 | Two-year budget bill (71-28) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 70.9% | Plus-minus +29.1 |
| Feb. 8 | Department of Defense Appropriations Act (55-44) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 44.3% | Plus-minus -44.3 |
| Jan. 29 | Banning abortions after 20 weeks of pregnancy (51-46) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 39.0% | Plus-minus +61.0 |
| Jan. 24 | Nomination of Alex Azar to be secretary of health and human services (55-43) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 47.5% | Plus-minus -47.5 |
| Jan. 22 | Extension of government funding for three weeks, ending the shutdown (81-18) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 83.2% | Plus-minus +16.8 |
| Jan. 19 | Extension of government funding for four weeks (50-49) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 35.6% | Plus-minus -35.6 |
| Jan. 18 | Reauthorizing warrantless spying program as part of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (65-34) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 63.0% | Plus-minus +37.0 |
| Dec. 21, 2017 | Extension of government funding for four weeks (66-32) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 67.2% | Plus-minus -67.2 |
| Dec. 20, 2017 | Overhauling the tax code (final version) (51-48) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 38.6% | Plus-minus -38.6 |
| Dec. 7, 2017 | Extension of government funding for two weeks (81-14) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 85.1% | Plus-minus +14.9 |
| Dec. 5, 2017 | Nomination of Kirstjen Nielsen to be secretary of homeland security (62-37) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 64.9% | Plus-minus -64.9 |
| Dec. 2, 2017 | Overhauling the tax code (Senate version) (51-49) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 38.6% | Plus-minus -38.6 |
| Oct. 25, 2017 | Repeal of a rule banning some financial companies from using mandatory arbitration clauses (51-50) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 37.2% | Plus-minus -37.2 |
| Oct. 24, 2017 | Disaster relief for Puerto Rico and other areas (82-17) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 93.1% | Plus-minus +6.9 |
| Oct. 19, 2017 | Fiscal year 2018 budget resolution (51-49) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 38.7% | Plus-minus -38.7 |
| Sept. 7, 2017 | Raising debt limit/extending government funding/Hurricane Harvey relief (80-17) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 88.5% | Plus-minus +11.5 |
| Aug. 1, 2017 | Nomination of Christopher A. Wray to be director of the FBI (92-5) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 98.1% | Plus-minus +1.9 |
| July 28, 2017 | Senate "skinny repeal" health care bill (49-51) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 34.6% | Plus-minus -34.6 |
| July 27, 2017 | Imposing sanctions on Russia, Iran and North Korea (98-2) | Trump Position oppose | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 2.1% | Plus-minus -2.1 |
| July 26, 2017 | Repealing major parts of the Affordable Care Act, with a transition period for replacement (45-55) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 30.7% | Plus-minus -30.7 |
| July 25, 2017 | The American Health Care Act of 2017 (Senate motion to proceed) (51-50) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 36.3% | Plus-minus -36.3 |
| June 14, 2017 | Imposing sanctions on Russia (97-2) | Trump Position oppose | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 0.8% | Plus-minus -0.8 |
| June 13, 2017 | Opposing the sale of some arms to Saudi Arabia (47-53) | Trump Position oppose | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 40.8% | Plus-minus -40.8 |
| May 11, 2017 | Nomination of Robert Lighthizer to be United States trade representative (82-14) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 89.0% | Plus-minus +11.0 |
| May 10, 2017 | Repeal of a rule requiring energy companies to reduce waste and emissions (49-51) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 34.6% | Plus-minus -34.6 |
| May 4, 2017 | The 2017 fiscal year appropriations bill (79-18) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 87.0% | Plus-minus +13.0 |
| May 3, 2017 | Repeal of a rule that allowed a new type of state-based retirement plan (50-49) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 37.8% | Plus-minus -37.8 |
| April 27, 2017 | Nomination of R. Alexander Acosta to be secretary of labor (60-38) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 58.3% | Plus-minus -58.3 |
| April 24, 2017 | Nomination of Sonny Perdue to be secretary of agriculture (87-11) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 96.2% | Plus-minus +3.8 |
| April 7, 2017 | Nomination of Neil Gorsuch to be associate justice of the Supreme Court (54-45) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 41.0% | Plus-minus -41.0 |
| April 6, 2017 | Whether to keep the Senate cloture requirement for Supreme Court nominees at 60 votes (48-52) | Trump Position oppose | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 39.5% | Plus-minus -39.5 |
| March 30, 2017 | Repeal of a rule requiring state and local governments to distribute federal funds to qualified health centers even if they perform abortions (51-50) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 36.3% | Plus-minus -36.3 |
| March 30, 2017 | Repeal of a rule that allowed a new type of retirement plan established by local governments (50-49) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 37.8% | Plus-minus -37.8 |
| March 23, 2017 | Repeal of an FCC rule barring internet providers from sharing data on customers' activities (50-48) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 38.7% | Plus-minus -38.7 |
| March 22, 2017 | Repeal of a Department of Labor rule regarding records of work-related injuries and illnesses (50-48) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 38.7% | Plus-minus -38.7 |
| March 15, 2017 | Nomination of Daniel Coats to be director of national intelligence (85-12) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 89.6% | Plus-minus +10.4 |
| March 14, 2017 | Repeal of a Department of Labor rule on drug testing of applicants for unemployment compensation (51-48) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 38.7% | Plus-minus -38.7 |
| March 9, 2017 | Repeal of a Department of Education rule on school accountability (50-49) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 37.2% | Plus-minus -37.2 |
| March 8, 2017 | Repeal of a Department of Education rule on teacher preparation programs (59-40) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 58.6% | Plus-minus -58.6 |
| March 7, 2017 | Repeal of changes to Bureau of Land Management planning rules (51-48) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 38.7% | Plus-minus -38.7 |
| March 6, 2017 | Repeal of a rule requiring some federal contractors to report labor violations (49-48) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 37.4% | Plus-minus -37.4 |
| March 2, 2017 | Nomination of Rick Perry to be secretary of energy (62-37) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 65.2% | Plus-minus -65.2 |
| March 2, 2017 | Nomination of Ben Carson to be secretary of housing and urban development (58-41) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 52.3% | Plus-minus -52.3 |
| March 1, 2017 | Nomination of Ryan Zinke to be secretary of the interior (68-31) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 78.0% | Plus-minus -78.0 |
| Feb. 28, 2017 | Nomination of Wilbur L. Ross Jr. to be secretary of commerce (72-27) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 74.9% | Plus-minus +25.1 |
| Feb. 17, 2017 | Nomination of Scott Pruitt to be administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (52-46) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 37.7% | Plus-minus -37.7 |
| Feb. 16, 2017 | Nomination of Mick Mulvaney to be director of the Office of Management and Budget (51-49) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 37.9% | Plus-minus -37.9 |
| Feb. 15, 2017 | Repeal of a rule requiring the Social Security Administration to submit information to the national background-check system (57-43) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 47.2% | Plus-minus -47.2 |
| Feb. 14, 2017 | Nomination of Linda E. McMahon to be administrator of the Small Business Administration (81-19) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 88.2% | Plus-minus +11.8 |
| Feb. 13, 2017 | Nomination of David J. Shulkin to be secretary of veterans affairs (100-0) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 100.0% | Plus-minus 0.0 |
| Feb. 13, 2017 | Nomination of Steven T. Mnuchin to be secretary of the treasury (53-47) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 39.7% | Plus-minus -39.7 |
| Feb. 10, 2017 | Nomination of Tom Price to be secretary of health and human services (52-47) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 40.5% | Plus-minus -40.5 |
| Feb. 8, 2017 | Nomination of Jeff Sessions to be attorney general (52-47) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 39.7% | Plus-minus -39.7 |
| Feb. 7, 2017 | Nomination of Betsy DeVos to be secretary of education (51-50) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 36.3% | Plus-minus -36.3 |
| Feb. 3, 2017 | Repeal of a rule requiring energy companies to disclose payments to foreign governments (52-47) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 39.6% | Plus-minus -39.6 |
| Feb. 2, 2017 | Repeal of the stream protection rule (54-45) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 40.9% | Plus-minus -40.9 |
| Feb. 1, 2017 | Nomination of Rex W. Tillerson to be secretary of state (56-43) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 45.7% | Plus-minus -45.7 |
| Jan. 31, 2017 | Nomination of Elaine L. Chao to be secretary of transportation (93-6) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 98.3% | Plus-minus +1.7 |
| Jan. 24, 2017 | Nomination of Nikki R. Haley to be ambassador to the United Nations (96-4) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 97.1% | Plus-minus +2.9 |
| Jan. 23, 2017 | Nomination of Mike Pompeo to be director of the CIA (66-32) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 65.7% | Plus-minus -65.7 |
| Jan. 20, 2017 | Nomination of John F. Kelly to be secretary of homeland security (88-11) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 93.0% | Plus-minus +7.0 |
| Jan. 20, 2017 | Nomination of James Mattis to be secretary of defense (98-1) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 99.8% | Plus-minus +0.2 |
| Jan. 12, 2017 | Waiver allowing James Mattis to become secretary of defense (81-17) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 86.9% | Plus-minus +13.1 |
| Jan. 12, 2017 | Budget resolution to repeal the Affordable Care Act (51-48) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 38.8% | Plus-minus -38.8 |
| Average | 31.3% | 55.2% | -23.9 | |||
See more about Robert P. Casey Jr. at ProPublica
Members’ “likelihood of agreement” scores on each vote are calculated using a regression for which the input is Trump's 2016 vote margin in every member's state or district and the output is the probability that a member will vote for the bill. The plus-minus on each vote is the difference between the member's vote (100 percent for a “yes,” 0 percent for a “no”) and the likelihood of agreement. Averages do not include missed votes. How this works »
Comments