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Trump score How often Casey votes in line with Trump's position | Trump margin Trump's share of the vote in the 2016 election in Pennsylvania minus Clinton's | Predicted score How often Casey is expected to support Trump based on Trump's 2016 margin | Trump plus-minus Difference between Casey’s actual and predicted Trump-support scores |
|---|---|---|---|
27.1% | +0.7 | 54.6% | -27.5 |
Trump score How often Casey votes in line with Trump's position | 27.1% |
|---|---|
| Trump margin Trump's share of the vote in the 2016 election in Pennsylvania minus Clinton's | +0.7 |
Predicted score How often Casey is expected to support Trump based on Trump's 2016 margin | 54.6% |
Trump plus-minus Difference between Casey’s actual and predicted Trump-support scores | -27.5 |
| Date | Measure | Trump Position | Casey Vote | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement | Plus-minus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 1 | Nomination of Christopher A. Wray to be director of the FBI (92-5) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump?  | Likelihood of agreement 98.1% | Plus-minus +1.9 |
| July 28 | Senate "skinny repeal" health care bill (49-51) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump?  | Likelihood of agreement 34.6% | Plus-minus -34.6 |
| July 27 | Imposing sanctions on Russia, Iran and North Korea (98-2) | Trump Position oppose | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 2.1% | Plus-minus -2.1 |
| July 26 | Repealing major parts of the Affordable Care Act, with a transition period for replacement (45-55) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 30.7% | Plus-minus -30.7 |
| July 25 | The American Health Care Act of 2017 (Senate motion to proceed) (51-50) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 36.3% | Plus-minus -36.3 |
| June 14 | Imposing sanctions on Russia (97-2) | Trump Position oppose | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 0.8% | Plus-minus -0.8 |
| June 13 | Opposing the sale of some arms to Saudi Arabia (47-53) | Trump Position oppose | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 40.8% | Plus-minus -40.8 |
| May 11 | Nomination of Robert Lighthizer to be United States trade representative (82-14) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 89.0% | Plus-minus +11.0 |
| May 10 | Repeal of a rule requiring energy companies to reduce waste and emissions (49-51) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 34.6% | Plus-minus -34.6 |
| May 4 | The 2017 fiscal year appropriations bill (79-18) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 87.0% | Plus-minus +13.0 |
| May 3 | Repeal of a rule that allowed a new type of state-based retirement plan (50-49) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 37.8% | Plus-minus -37.8 |
| April 27 | Nomination of R. Alexander Acosta to be secretary of labor (60-38) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 58.3% | Plus-minus -58.3 |
| April 24 | Nomination of Sonny Perdue to be secretary of agriculture (87-11) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 96.2% | Plus-minus +3.8 |
| April 7 | Nomination of Neil Gorsuch to be associate justice of the Supreme Court (54-45) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 41.0% | Plus-minus -41.0 |
| April 6 | Whether to keep the Senate cloture requirement for Supreme Court nominees at 60 votes (48-52) | Trump Position oppose | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 39.5% | Plus-minus -39.5 |
| March 30 | Repeal of a rule requiring state and local governments to distribute federal funds to qualified health centers even if they perform abortions (51-50) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 36.3% | Plus-minus -36.3 |
| March 30 | Repeal of a rule that allowed a new type of retirement plan established by local governments (50-49) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 37.8% | Plus-minus -37.8 |
| March 23 | Repeal of an FCC rule barring internet providers from sharing data on customers' activities (50-48) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 38.7% | Plus-minus -38.7 |
| March 22 | Repeal of a Department of Labor rule regarding records of work-related injuries and illnesses (50-48) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 38.7% | Plus-minus -38.7 |
| March 15 | Nomination of Daniel Coats to be director of national intelligence (85-12) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 89.6% | Plus-minus +10.4 |
| March 14 | Repeal of a Department of Labor rule on drug testing of applicants for unemployment compensation (51-48) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 38.7% | Plus-minus -38.7 |
| March 9 | Repeal of a Department of Education rule on school accountability (50-49) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 37.2% | Plus-minus -37.2 |
| March 8 | Repeal of a Department of Education rule on teacher preparation programs (59-40) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 58.6% | Plus-minus -58.6 |
| March 7 | Repeal of changes to Bureau of Land Management planning rules (51-48) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 38.7% | Plus-minus -38.7 |
| March 6 | Repeal of a rule requiring some federal contractors to report labor violations (49-48) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 37.4% | Plus-minus -37.4 |
| March 2 | Nomination of Rick Perry to be secretary of energy (62-37) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 65.2% | Plus-minus -65.2 |
| March 2 | Nomination of Ben Carson to be secretary of housing and urban development (58-41) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 52.3% | Plus-minus -52.3 |
| March 1 | Nomination of Ryan Zinke to be secretary of the interior (68-31) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 78.0% | Plus-minus -78.0 |
| Feb. 28 | Nomination of Wilbur L. Ross Jr. to be secretary of commerce (72-27) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 74.9% | Plus-minus +25.1 |
| Feb. 17 | Nomination of Scott Pruitt to be administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (52-46) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 37.7% | Plus-minus -37.7 |
| Feb. 16 | Nomination of Mick Mulvaney to be director of the Office of Management and Budget (51-49) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 37.9% | Plus-minus -37.9 |
| Feb. 15 | Repeal of a rule requiring the Social Security Administration to submit information to the national background-check system (57-43) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 47.2% | Plus-minus -47.2 |
| Feb. 14 | Nomination of Linda E. McMahon to be administrator of the Small Business Administration (81-19) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 88.2% | Plus-minus +11.8 |
| Feb. 13 | Nomination of David J. Shulkin to be secretary of veterans affairs (100-0) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 100.0% | Plus-minus 0.0 |
| Feb. 13 | Nomination of Steven T. Mnuchin to be secretary of the treasury (53-47) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 39.7% | Plus-minus -39.7 |
| Feb. 10 | Nomination of Tom Price to be secretary of health and human services (52-47) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 40.5% | Plus-minus -40.5 |
| Feb. 8 | Nomination of Jeff Sessions to be attorney general (52-47) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 39.7% | Plus-minus -39.7 |
| Feb. 7 | Nomination of Betsy DeVos to be secretary of education (51-50) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 36.3% | Plus-minus -36.3 |
| Feb. 3 | Repeal of a rule requiring energy companies to disclose payments to foreign governments (52-47) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 39.6% | Plus-minus -39.6 |
| Feb. 2 | Repeal of the stream protection rule (54-45) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 40.9% | Plus-minus -40.9 |
| Feb. 1 | Nomination of Rex W. Tillerson to be secretary of state (56-43) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 45.7% | Plus-minus -45.7 |
| Jan. 31 | Nomination of Elaine L. Chao to be secretary of transportation (93-6) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 98.3% | Plus-minus +1.7 |
| Jan. 24 | Nomination of Nikki R. Haley to be ambassador to the United Nations (96-4) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 97.1% | Plus-minus +2.9 |
| Jan. 23 | Nomination of Mike Pompeo to be director of the CIA (66-32) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 65.7% | Plus-minus -65.7 |
| Jan. 20 | Nomination of John F. Kelly to be secretary of homeland security (88-11) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 93.0% | Plus-minus +7.0 |
| Jan. 20 | Nomination of James Mattis to be secretary of defense (98-1) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 99.8% | Plus-minus +0.2 |
| Jan. 12 | Waiver allowing James Mattis to become secretary of defense (81-17) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 86.9% | Plus-minus +13.1 |
| Jan. 12 | Budget resolution to repeal the Affordable Care Act (51-48) | Trump Position support | Casey Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 38.8% | Plus-minus -38.8 |
| Average | 27.1% | 54.6% | -27.5 | |||
See more about Robert P. Casey Jr. at ProPublica
Members’ “likelihood of agreement” scores on each vote are calculated using a regression for which the input is Trump's 2016 vote margin in every member's state or district and the output is the probability that a member will vote for the bill. The plus-minus on each vote is the difference between the member's vote (100 percent for a “yes,” 0 percent for a “no”) and the likelihood of agreement. Averages do not include missed votes. How this works »
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