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Trump score How often Smith votes in line with Trump's position | Trump margin Trump's share of the vote in the 2016 election in Minnesota minus Clinton's | Predicted score How often Smith is expected to support Trump based on Trump's 2016 margin | Trump plus-minus Difference between Smith’s actual and predicted Trump-support scores |
|---|---|---|---|
27.3% | -1.5 | 48.8% | -21.5 |
Trump score How often Smith votes in line with Trump's position | 27.3% |
|---|---|
| Trump margin Trump's share of the vote in the 2016 election in Minnesota minus Clinton's | -1.5 |
Predicted score How often Smith is expected to support Trump based on Trump's 2016 margin | 48.8% |
Trump plus-minus Difference between Smith’s actual and predicted Trump-support scores | -21.5 |
| Date | Measure | Trump Position | Smith Vote | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement | Plus-minus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 10 | Repeal of a rule expanding short-term health insurance plans (50-50) | Trump Position oppose | Smith Vote Yes | Agree with Trump?  | Likelihood of agreement 31.8% | Plus-minus -31.8 |
| Oct. 6 | Nomination of Brett M. Kavanaugh to be associate justice of the Supreme Court (50-48) | Trump Position support | Smith Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 32.6% | Plus-minus -32.6 |
| Sept. 17 | Broad legislation to address the opioid crisis (99-1) | Trump Position support | Smith Vote Yes | Agree with Trump?  | Likelihood of agreement 99.4% | Plus-minus +0.6 |
| July 23 | Nomination of Robert L. Wilkie to be secretary of veterans affairs (86-9) | Trump Position support | Smith Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 97.5% | Plus-minus +2.5 |
| July 11 | Nonbinding motion calling for congressional approval of national security tariffs (88-11) | Trump Position oppose | Smith Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 3.5% | Plus-minus -3.5 |
| June 20 | Rescinding previously approved but unspent funding (48-50) | Trump Position support | Smith Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 29.9% | Plus-minus -29.9 |
| May 23 | Expanding private care options for veterans (92-5) | Trump Position support | Smith Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 94.4% | Plus-minus +5.6 |
| May 17 | Nomination of Gina Haspel to be director of the CIA (54-45) | Trump Position support | Smith Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 37.0% | Plus-minus -37.0 |
| May 16 | Reinstating net neutrality rules (52-47) | Trump Position oppose | Smith Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 29.1% | Plus-minus -29.1 |
| April 26 | Nomination of Mike Pompeo to be secretary of state (57-42) | Trump Position support | Smith Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 38.4% | Plus-minus -38.4 |
| April 18 | Repeal of guidance meant to protect borrowers from discriminatory markups on auto loans (51-47) | Trump Position support | Smith Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 32.4% | Plus-minus -32.4 |
| March 23 | The 2018 fiscal year appropriations bill (65-32) | Trump Position support | Smith Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 69.0% | Plus-minus +31.0 |
| March 14 | Rolling back some bank regulations put in place by the Dodd-Frank Act (67-31) | Trump Position support | Smith Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 69.5% | Plus-minus -69.5 |
| Feb. 15 | White House immigration proposal (39-60) | Trump Position support | Smith Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 25.2% | Plus-minus -25.2 |
| Feb. 15 | Bipartisan immigration proposal (54-45) | Trump Position oppose | Smith Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 31.8% | Plus-minus -31.8 |
| Feb. 9 | Two-year budget bill (71-28) | Trump Position support | Smith Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 70.4% | Plus-minus +29.6 |
| Feb. 8 | Department of Defense Appropriations Act (55-44) | Trump Position support | Smith Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 37.6% | Plus-minus -37.6 |
| Jan. 29 | Banning abortions after 20 weeks of pregnancy (51-46) | Trump Position support | Smith Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 33.1% | Plus-minus -33.1 |
| Jan. 24 | Nomination of Alex Azar to be secretary of health and human services (55-43) | Trump Position support | Smith Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 41.1% | Plus-minus -41.1 |
| Jan. 22 | Extension of government funding for three weeks, ending the shutdown (81-18) | Trump Position support | Smith Vote Yes | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 81.0% | Plus-minus +19.0 |
| Jan. 19 | Extension of government funding for four weeks (50-49) | Trump Position support | Smith Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 29.6% | Plus-minus -29.6 |
| Jan. 18 | Reauthorizing warrantless spying program as part of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (65-34) | Trump Position support | Smith Vote No | Agree with Trump? | Likelihood of agreement 59.3% | Plus-minus -59.3 |
| Average | 27.3% | 48.8% | -21.5 | |||
See more about Tina Smith at ProPublica
Members’ “likelihood of agreement” scores on each vote are calculated using a regression for which the input is Trump's 2016 vote margin in every member's state or district and the output is the probability that a member will vote for the bill. The plus-minus on each vote is the difference between the member's vote (100 percent for a “yes,” 0 percent for a “no”) and the likelihood of agreement. Averages do not include missed votes. How this works »
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