UPDATED May 28, 2021, at 10:08 AM

Where The Latest COVID-19 Models Think We're Headed — And Why They Disagree

As of May 28, 2021, we are no longer updating this project with new COVID-19 forecasts.

Models predicting the potential spread of the COVID-19 pandemic have become a fixture of American life. Yet each model tells a different story about the loss of life to come, making it hard to know which one is “right.” But COVID-19 models aren’t made to be unquestioned oracles. They’re not trying to tell us one precise future, but rather the range of possibilities given the facts on the ground.

One of their more sober tasks is predicting the number of Americans who will die due to COVID-19. FiveThirtyEight — with the help of data compiled by the COVID-19 Forecast Hub — has assembled 10 models published by scientists to illustrate possible trajectories of the pandemic’s death toll. In doing so, we hope to make them more accessible, as well as highlight how the assumptions underlying the models can lead to vastly different estimates. Here are the models’ U.S. fatality projections for the coming weeks.

Forecasts like these are useful because they help us understand the most likely outcomes as well as best- and worst-case possibilities — and they can help policymakers make decisions that can lead us closer to those best-case outcomes.

And looking at multiple models is better than looking at just one because it's difficult to know which model will match reality the closest. Even when models disagree, understanding why they are different can give us valuable insight.

Coronavirus is hard to understand. FiveThirtyEight can help.

How do the models differ?

Each model makes different assumptions about properties of the novel coronavirus, such as how infectious it is and the rate at which people die once infected. They also use different types of math behind the scenes to make their projections. And perhaps most importantly, they make different assumptions about the amount of contact we should expect between people in the near future.

Understanding the underlying assumptions that each model is currently using can help us understand why some forecasts are more optimistic or pessimistic than others.

    State-by-state breakdown

    Below are individual forecasts for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

    Alabama

    11,140 deaths as of May 27

    Alaska

    369 deaths

    Arizona

    17,594 deaths

    Arkansas

    5,829 deaths

    California

    63,168 deaths

    Colorado

    6,545 deaths

    Connecticut

    8,230 deaths

    Delaware

    1,660 deaths

    District of Columbia

    1,132 deaths

    Florida

    36,733 deaths

    Georgia

    20,774 deaths

    Hawaii

    498 deaths

    Idaho

    2,090 deaths

    Illinois

    25,101 deaths

    Indiana

    13,583 deaths

    Iowa

    6,047 deaths

    Kansas

    5,068 deaths

    Kentucky

    6,748 deaths

    Louisiana

    10,570 deaths

    Maine

    825 deaths

    Maryland

    9,581 deaths

    Massachusetts

    17,850 deaths

    Michigan

    20,301 deaths

    Minnesota

    7,496 deaths

    Mississippi

    7,304 deaths

    Missouri

    9,490 deaths

    Montana

    1,610 deaths

    Nebraska

    2,236 deaths

    Nevada

    5,578 deaths

    New Hampshire

    1,349 deaths

    New Jersey

    26,173 deaths

    New Mexico

    4,259 deaths

    New York

    53,229 deaths

    North Carolina

    13,055 deaths

    North Dakota

    1,541 deaths

    Ohio

    19,753 deaths

    Oklahoma

    7,291 deaths

    Oregon

    2,660 deaths

    Pennsylvania

    27,130 deaths

    Rhode Island

    2,708 deaths

    South Carolina

    9,711 deaths

    South Dakota

    2,004 deaths

    Tennessee

    12,428 deaths

    Texas

    51,401 deaths

    Utah

    2,294 deaths

    Vermont

    255 deaths

    Virginia

    11,152 deaths

    Washington

    5,754 deaths

    West Virginia

    2,792 deaths

    Wisconsin

    7,814 deaths

    Wyoming

    719 deaths

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