We’re collecting national polls for the Republican primary and generating an average that is adjusted for pollster quality, sample size and recency.
We’re collecting national polls for the Republican primary and generating an average that is adjusted for pollster quality, sample size and recency.
If you’re trying to figure out who will win the nomination, national primary polls can lead you astray. You’re better off looking at the next few states to vote, such as those covered by our primary forecasts. But national polls play a big role in media coverage, and taking a weighted average of them is more informative than looking at just one or two.
For the Republican primary, we’ve collected 670 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling average.
• = new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters
pollster | sample | weight | leader | Trump | Kasich | Cruz | Rubio | Carson | Bush | Christie | Fiorina | Santorum | Paul | Huckabee | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
• | Apr. 25-May 1 | SurveyMonkey | 3,479 | RV | 1.30 | Trump +34 | 56% | 14% | 22% | ||||||||
• | Apr. 22-26 | YouGov | 499 | LV | 0.99 | Trump +21 | 49% | 19% | 28% | ||||||||
• | Apr. 28-May 1 | Opinion Research Corporation | 406 | RV | 0.98 | Trump +24 | 49% | 19% | 25% | ||||||||
• | Apr. 29-May 2 | Morning Consult | 723 | RV | 0.96 | Trump +36 | 56% | 13% | 20% | ||||||||
• | Apr. 29-May 3 | Ipsos, online | 244 | LV | 0.94 | Trump +30 | 56% | 17% | 26% | ||||||||
• | Apr. 20-24 | Suffolk University | 292 | LV | 0.78 | Trump +16 | 45% | 17% | 29% | ||||||||
• | Apr. 22-28 | IBD/ | 397 | RV | 0.69 | Trump +19 | 48% | 16% | 29% | ||||||||
• | Apr. 11-13 | Fox News | 419 | LV | 0.57 | Trump +18 | 45% | 25% | 27% | ||||||||
• | Apr. 10-14 | NBC/ | 310 | LV | 0.55 | Trump +5 | 40% | 24% | 35% | ||||||||
• | Apr. 8-12 | CBS News | 399 | LV | 0.54 | Trump +13 | 42% | 18% | 29% |
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