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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

See our 2016 general election forecast for Alabama »

B Alabama Republican primary

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump had a 94% chance of winning the Alabama primary.

Chance of winning, based on state polls only.

Chance of winning, based on state polls, national polls and endorsements.

Ted Cruz, Ben Carson and John Kasich had less than a 1% chance of winning.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Trump
Rubio
Cruz
Carson
Kasich

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Alabama Republican primary, we’ve collected 10 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

• = new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Trump
Rubio
Cruz
Carson
Kasich
•Feb. 25-28 Monmouth University450 LV
0.95
Trump +23
42%
19%
16%
11%
5%
•Feb. 24 Master Image1,556 LV
0.43
Trump +17
36%
19%
12%
8%
7%
•Feb. 22-29 SurveyMonkey741 RV
0.41
Trump +29
47%
14%
18%
9%
3%
•Feb. 25-26 Opinion Savvy460 LV
0.34
Trump +13
36%
23%
16%
11%
8%
•Feb. 10 Master Image1,840 LV
0.00
Trump +23
36%
11%
13%
6%
9%
•Jan. 24-25 Master Image2,229 LV
0.00
Trump +18
34%
13%
16%
•Aug. 29-Sep. 1 Gravis Marketing1,616 RV
0.00
Trump +21
38%
2%
4%
17%
1%
•Aug. 11 Strategy Research
0.00
Trump +15*
30%
11%
7%
11%
•Aug. 3 Opinion Savvy481 LV
0.00
Trump +23
38%
3%
5%
15%
1%
•Jan. 4 Strategy Research
0.00
Trump +19
40%
9%
21%
8%
•Feb. 25-28
Monmouth University
450 LV
Trump +23
Trump 42%
Rubio 19%
Cruz 16%
Carson 11%
Kasich 5%
•Feb. 24
Master Image
1,556 LV
Trump +17
Trump 36%
Rubio 19%
Cruz 12%
Carson 8%
Kasich 7%
•Feb. 22-29
SurveyMonkey
741 RV
Trump +29
Trump 47%
Cruz 18%
Rubio 14%
Carson 9%
Kasich 3%
•Feb. 25-26
Opinion Savvy
460 LV
Trump +13
Trump 36%
Rubio 23%
Cruz 16%
Carson 11%
Kasich 8%
•Feb. 10
Master Image
1,840 LV
Trump +23
Trump 36%
Cruz 13%
Rubio 11%
Kasich 9%
Carson 6%
•Jan. 24-25
Master Image
2,229 LV
Trump +18
Trump 34%
Cruz 16%
Rubio 13%
•Aug. 29-Sep. 1
Gravis Marketing
1,616 RV
Trump +21
Trump 38%
Carson 17%
Cruz 4%
Rubio 2%
Kasich 1%
•Aug. 11
Strategy Research
Trump +15*
Trump 30%
Carson 11%
Rubio 11%
Cruz 7%
•Aug. 3
Opinion Savvy
481 LV
Trump +23
Trump 38%
Carson 15%
Cruz 5%
Rubio 3%
Kasich 1%
•Jan. 4
Strategy Research
Trump +19
Trump 40%
Cruz 21%
Rubio 9%
Carson 8%
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .
Design and development by Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe, Ritchie King and Andrei Scheinkman. Research by Harry Enten and Dhrumil Mehta. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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