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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump had a 97% chance of winning the California primary.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Trump
Kasich

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the California Republican primary, we’ve collected 15 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Trump
Kasich
Apr. 27-30 SurveyUSA529 LV
1.88
Trump +34*
54%
16%
Apr. 18-21 Fox News583 LV
0.67
Trump +27*
49%
20%
Apr. 13-15 YouGov1,012 LV
0.46
Trump +18*
49%
16%
Apr. 11-14 Sextant Strategies1,165 LV
0.32
Trump +18*
41%
21%
Mar. 24-Apr. 4 Field Poll558 LV
0.23
Trump +7*
39%
18%
Mar. 30-Apr. 3 SurveyUSA356 LV
0.11
Trump +8*
40%
17%
Mar. 16-23 USC Dornsife219 LV
0.03
Trump +1*
36%
14%
Mar. 6-15 PPIC319 LV
0.02
Trump +11*
38%
14%
Mar. 9-10 NSON Opinion Strategy407 LV
0.02
Trump +16*
38%
20%
Mar. 2-9 SmithJohnson Research454 LV
0.01
Trump +5*
25%
15%
Dec. 16-Jan. 3 Field Poll325 LV
0.00
Cruz +2*
23%
1%
Oct. 29-Nov. 3 SurveyMonkey674 RV
0.00
Trump +1*
20%
1%
Sep. 17-Oct. 4 Field Poll214 LV
0.00
Trump +2*
17%
2%
Aug. 29-Sep. 8 Los Angeles Times/USC422 RV
0.00
Trump +6*
24%
2%
Apr. 23-May 16 Field Poll227 LV
0.00
Tie*
1%
Apr. 27-30
529 LV
Trump +34*
Trump 54%
Kasich 16%
Apr. 18-21
583 LV
Trump +27*
Trump 49%
Kasich 20%
Apr. 13-15
1,012 LV
Trump +18*
Trump 49%
Kasich 16%
Apr. 11-14
1,165 LV
Trump +18*
Trump 41%
Kasich 21%
Mar. 24-Apr. 4
558 LV
Trump +7*
Trump 39%
Kasich 18%
Mar. 30-Apr. 3
356 LV
Trump +8*
Trump 40%
Kasich 17%
Mar. 16-23
219 LV
Trump +1*
Trump 36%
Kasich 14%
Mar. 6-15
319 LV
Trump +11*
Trump 38%
Kasich 14%
Mar. 9-10
407 LV
Trump +16*
Trump 38%
Kasich 20%
Mar. 2-9
454 LV
Trump +5*
Trump 25%
Kasich 15%
Dec. 16-Jan. 3
325 LV
Cruz +2*
Trump 23%
Kasich 1%
Oct. 29-Nov. 3
674 RV
Trump +1*
Trump 20%
Kasich 1%
Sep. 17-Oct. 4
214 LV
Trump +2*
Trump 17%
Kasich 2%
Aug. 29-Sep. 8
422 RV
Trump +6*
Trump 24%
Kasich 2%
Apr. 23-May 16
227 LV
Tie*
Kasich 1%
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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