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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump had a greater than 99% chance of winning the Connecticut primary.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Trump
Kasich
Cruz

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Connecticut Republican primary, we’ve collected seven polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Trump
Kasich
Cruz
Apr. 23-24 Gravis Marketing964 LV
0.91
Trump +27
54%
27%
9%
Apr. 22-24 Public Policy Polling512 LV
0.88
Trump +34
59%
25%
13%
Apr. 12-18 Quinnipiac University823 LV
0.19
Trump +20
48%
28%
19%
Apr. 10-11 Emerson College354 LV
0.03
Trump +24
50%
26%
17%
Nov. 13-16 Emerson College445 LV
0.00
Trump +11*
25%
10%
6%
Oct. 7-11 Quinnipiac University464 RV
0.00
Trump +20*
34%
4%
6%
Mar. 6-9 Quinnipiac University323 RV
0.00
Tie*
0%
5%
Apr. 23-24
964 LV
Trump +27
Trump 54%
Kasich 27%
Cruz 9%
Apr. 22-24
512 LV
Trump +34
Trump 59%
Kasich 25%
Cruz 13%
Apr. 12-18
823 LV
Trump +20
Trump 48%
Kasich 28%
Cruz 19%
Apr. 10-11
354 LV
Trump +24
Trump 50%
Kasich 26%
Cruz 17%
Nov. 13-16
445 LV
Trump +11*
Trump 25%
Kasich 10%
Cruz 6%
Oct. 7-11
464 RV
Trump +20*
Trump 34%
Cruz 6%
Kasich 4%
Mar. 6-9
323 RV
Tie*
Cruz 5%
Kasich 0%
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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