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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

See our 2016 general election forecast for Georgia »

J Georgia Democratic primary

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton had a greater than 99% chance of winning the Georgia primary.

Chance of winning, based on state polls only.

Chance of winning, based on state polls, national polls and endorsements.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Clinton
Sanders

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Georgia Democratic primary, we’ve collected 13 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

• = new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Clinton
Sanders
•Feb. 28 Landmark Communications800 LV
1.06
Clinton +47
70%
23%
•Feb. 22-29 SurveyMonkey961 RV
0.41
Clinton +23
59%
36%
•Feb. 22-23 SurveyUSA501 LV
0.41
Clinton +39
66%
27%
•Feb. 22-26 YouGov492 LV
0.35
Clinton +28
63%
35%
•Feb. 22-24 ResearchNow400 LV
0.20
Clinton +33
62%
29%
•Feb. 18-23 Marist College461 LV
0.19
Clinton +34
64%
30%
•Feb. 22-23 Opinion Savvy491 LV
0.15
Clinton +28
57%
29%
•Feb. 14-16 Public Policy Polling500 LV
0.04
Clinton +34
60%
26%
•Feb. 21 Landmark Communications700 LV
0.03
Clinton +52
72%
20%
•Feb. 4 Landmark Communications600 LV
0.00
Clinton +41
63%
22%
•Oct. 15-26 SurveyUSA481 LV
0.00
Clinton +57
73%
16%
•Sep. 1 Opinion Savvy413 LV
0.00
Clinton +27
51%
24%
•Aug. 5 Landmark Communications600 LV
0.00
Clinton +38*
56%
11%
•Feb. 28
Landmark Communications
800 LV
Clinton +47
Clinton 70%
Sanders 23%
•Feb. 22-29
SurveyMonkey
961 RV
Clinton +23
Clinton 59%
Sanders 36%
•Feb. 22-23
SurveyUSA
501 LV
Clinton +39
Clinton 66%
Sanders 27%
•Feb. 22-26
YouGov
492 LV
Clinton +28
Clinton 63%
Sanders 35%
•Feb. 22-24
ResearchNow
400 LV
Clinton +33
Clinton 62%
Sanders 29%
•Feb. 18-23
Marist College
461 LV
Clinton +34
Clinton 64%
Sanders 30%
•Feb. 22-23
Opinion Savvy
491 LV
Clinton +28
Clinton 57%
Sanders 29%
•Feb. 14-16
Public Policy Polling
500 LV
Clinton +34
Clinton 60%
Sanders 26%
•Feb. 21
Landmark Communications
700 LV
Clinton +52
Clinton 72%
Sanders 20%
•Feb. 4
Landmark Communications
600 LV
Clinton +41
Clinton 63%
Sanders 22%
•Oct. 15-26
SurveyUSA
481 LV
Clinton +57
Clinton 73%
Sanders 16%
•Sep. 1
Opinion Savvy
413 LV
Clinton +27
Clinton 51%
Sanders 24%
•Aug. 5
Landmark Communications
600 LV
Clinton +38*
Clinton 56%
Sanders 11%
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .
Design and development by Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe, Ritchie King and Andrei Scheinkman. Research by Harry Enten and Dhrumil Mehta. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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