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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton had a 90% chance of winning the Indiana primary.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Clinton
Sanders

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Indiana Democratic primary, we’ve collected seven polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Clinton
Sanders
Apr. 26-28 Marist College449 LV
0.58
Clinton +4
50%
46%
Apr. 27-28 American Research Group400 LV
0.37
Clinton +8
51%
43%
Apr. 20-22 YouGov831 LV
0.17
Clinton +5
49%
44%
Apr. 18-21 Fox News603 LV
0.12
Clinton +4
46%
42%
Apr. 18-23 IPFW400 LV
0.09
Clinton +13
54%
41%
Apr. 18-21 Public Opinion Strategies479 LV
0.09
Clinton +3
48%
45%
Apr. 13-27 IPFW400 LV
0.02
Clinton +15
55%
40%
Apr. 26-28
449 LV
Clinton +4
Clinton 50%
Sanders 46%
Apr. 27-28
400 LV
Clinton +8
Clinton 51%
Sanders 43%
Apr. 20-22
831 LV
Clinton +5
Clinton 49%
Sanders 44%
Apr. 18-21
603 LV
Clinton +4
Clinton 46%
Sanders 42%
Apr. 18-23
400 LV
Clinton +13
Clinton 54%
Sanders 41%
Apr. 18-21
479 LV
Clinton +3
Clinton 48%
Sanders 45%
Apr. 13-27
400 LV
Clinton +15
Clinton 55%
Sanders 40%
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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