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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump had an 81% chance of winning the Indiana primary.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Trump
Cruz
Kasich

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Indiana Republican primary, we’ve collected nine polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Trump
Cruz
Kasich
Apr. 26-28 Marist College645 LV
0.67
Trump +15
49%
34%
13%
Apr. 28-29 Gravis Marketing379 LV
0.45
Trump +17
44%
27%
9%
Apr. 27-28 American Research Group400 LV
0.35
Trump +9
41%
32%
21%
Apr. 27 Clout Research423 LV
0.24
Trump +2
37%
35%
16%
Apr. 20-22 YouGov439 LV
0.11
Trump +5
40%
35%
20%
Apr. 18-21 Fox News602 LV
0.11
Trump +8
41%
33%
16%
Apr. 18-21 Public Opinion Strategies507 LV
0.08
Trump +6
37%
31%
22%
Apr. 13-27 IPFW400 LV
0.07
Cruz +16
29%
45%
13%
Dec. 2-9 Bellwether Research & Consulting670 RV
0.00
Trump +9
26%
17%
Apr. 26-28
645 LV
Trump +15
Trump 49%
Cruz 34%
Kasich 13%
Apr. 28-29
379 LV
Trump +17
Trump 44%
Cruz 27%
Kasich 9%
Apr. 27-28
400 LV
Trump +9
Trump 41%
Cruz 32%
Kasich 21%
Apr. 27
423 LV
Trump +2
Trump 37%
Cruz 35%
Kasich 16%
Apr. 20-22
439 LV
Trump +5
Trump 40%
Cruz 35%
Kasich 20%
Apr. 18-21
602 LV
Trump +8
Trump 41%
Cruz 33%
Kasich 16%
Apr. 18-21
507 LV
Trump +6
Trump 37%
Cruz 31%
Kasich 22%
Apr. 13-27
400 LV
Cruz +16
Cruz 45%
Trump 29%
Kasich 13%
Dec. 2-9
670 RV
Trump +9
Trump 26%
Cruz 17%
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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