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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

See our 2016 general election forecast for Iowa »

L Iowa Democratic caucuses

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton had a 67% chance of winning the Iowa caucuses.

Chance of winning, based on state polls only.

Chance of winning, based on state polls, national polls and endorsements.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Clinton
Sanders
O'Malley

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Iowa Democratic caucuses, we’ve collected 72 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

• = new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Clinton
Sanders
O'Malley
•Jan. 25-31 Quinnipiac University919 LV
1.05
Sanders +3
46%
49%
3%
•Jan. 26-29 Selzer & Co.602 LV
1.05
Clinton +3
45%
42%
3%
•Jan. 29-31 Emerson College300 LV
0.69
Clinton +8
51%
43%
4%
•Jan. 26-27 Public Policy Polling851 LV
0.57
Clinton +8
48%
40%
7%
•Jan. 26-27 Gravis Marketing810 LV
0.40
Clinton +11
53%
42%
5%
•Jan. 23-26 Monmouth University504 LV
0.35
Clinton +5
47%
42%
6%
•Jan. 24-26 Marist College426 LV
0.33
Clinton +3
48%
45%
3%
•Jan. 21-24 American Research Group400 LV
0.11
Sanders +3
45%
48%
3%
•Jan. 18-21 YouGov490 LV
0.07
Sanders +1
46%
47%
5%
•Jan. 18-21 Fox News423 LV
0.07
Clinton +6
48%
42%
3%
•Jan. 25-31
Quinnipiac University
919 LV
Sanders +3
Sanders 49%
Clinton 46%
O'Malley 3%
•Jan. 26-29
Selzer & Co.
602 LV
Clinton +3
Clinton 45%
Sanders 42%
O'Malley 3%
•Jan. 29-31
Emerson College
300 LV
Clinton +8
Clinton 51%
Sanders 43%
O'Malley 4%
•Jan. 26-27
Public Policy Polling
851 LV
Clinton +8
Clinton 48%
Sanders 40%
O'Malley 7%
•Jan. 26-27
Gravis Marketing
810 LV
Clinton +11
Clinton 53%
Sanders 42%
O'Malley 5%
•Jan. 23-26
Monmouth University
504 LV
Clinton +5
Clinton 47%
Sanders 42%
O'Malley 6%
•Jan. 24-26
Marist College
426 LV
Clinton +3
Clinton 48%
Sanders 45%
O'Malley 3%
•Jan. 21-24
American Research Group
400 LV
Sanders +3
Sanders 48%
Clinton 45%
O'Malley 3%
•Jan. 18-21
YouGov
490 LV
Sanders +1
Sanders 47%
Clinton 46%
O'Malley 5%
•Jan. 18-21
Fox News
423 LV
Clinton +6
Clinton 48%
Sanders 42%
O'Malley 3%
Show more polls ▾
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .
Design and development by Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe, Ritchie King and Andrei Scheinkman. Research by Harry Enten and Dhrumil Mehta. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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