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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump had a 51% chance of winning the Kansas caucuses.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Trump
Cruz
Rubio
Kasich

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Kansas Republican caucuses, we’ve collected two polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Trump
Cruz
Rubio
Kasich
Mar. 2-3 Trafalgar Group1,060 LV
0.87
Trump +6
35%
29%
17%
13%
Feb. 19-26 Fort Hays State University212 LV
0.05
Trump +12
26%
14%
13%
3%
Mar. 2-3
1,060 LV
Trump +6
Trump 35%
Cruz 29%
Rubio 17%
Kasich 13%
Feb. 19-26
212 LV
Trump +12
Trump 26%
Cruz 14%
Rubio 13%
Kasich 3%
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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