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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

See our 2016 general election forecast for Massachusetts »

S Mass. Republican primary

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump had a greater than 99% chance of winning the Massachusetts primary.

Chance of winning, based on state polls only.

Chance of winning, based on state polls, national polls and endorsements.

John Kasich, Ben Carson and Ted Cruz had less than a 1% chance of winning.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Trump
Rubio
Kasich
Cruz
Carson

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Massachusetts Republican primary, we’ve collected 10 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

• = new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Trump
Rubio
Kasich
Cruz
Carson
•Feb. 26-28 Emerson College408 LV
0.70
Trump +31
51%
20%
14%
10%
1%
•Feb. 24-26 Suffolk University500 LV
0.57
Trump +23
43%
20%
17%
9%
4%
•Feb. 21-23 MassINC Polling Group386 LV
0.22
Trump +21
40%
19%
19%
10%
5%
•Feb. 19-25 YouGov292 LV
0.16
Trump +32
47%
15%
11%
15%
2%
•Feb. 19-21 Emerson College289 LV
0.03
Trump +34
50%
16%
13%
10%
2%
•Nov. 19-22 Suffolk University134 LV
0.00
Trump +14
32%
18%
2%
10%
5%
•Nov. 19-22 Suffolk University134 LV
0.00
Trump +14
32%
18%
2%
10%
5%
•Oct. 16-18 Emerson College271 LV
0.00
Trump +34
48%
12%
3%
5%
14%
•Mar. 14-19 Emerson College
0.00
Tie*
6%
12%
•Mar. 14-19 Emerson College216 A
0.00
Tie*
6%
13%
•Feb. 26-28
Emerson College
408 LV
Trump +31
Trump 51%
Rubio 20%
Kasich 14%
Cruz 10%
Carson 1%
•Feb. 24-26
Suffolk University
500 LV
Trump +23
Trump 43%
Rubio 20%
Kasich 17%
Cruz 9%
Carson 4%
•Feb. 21-23
MassINC Polling Group
386 LV
Trump +21
Trump 40%
Rubio 19%
Kasich 19%
Cruz 10%
Carson 5%
•Feb. 19-25
YouGov
292 LV
Trump +32
Trump 47%
Cruz 15%
Rubio 15%
Kasich 11%
Carson 2%
•Feb. 19-21
Emerson College
289 LV
Trump +34
Trump 50%
Rubio 16%
Kasich 13%
Cruz 10%
Carson 2%
•Nov. 19-22
Suffolk University
134 LV
Trump +14
Trump 32%
Rubio 18%
Cruz 10%
Carson 5%
Kasich 2%
•Nov. 19-22
Suffolk University
134 LV
Trump +14
Trump 32%
Rubio 18%
Cruz 10%
Carson 5%
Kasich 2%
•Oct. 16-18
Emerson College
271 LV
Trump +34
Trump 48%
Carson 14%
Rubio 12%
Cruz 5%
Kasich 3%
•Mar. 14-19
Emerson College
Tie*
Carson 12%
Cruz 6%
•Mar. 14-19
Emerson College
216 A
Tie*
Carson 13%
Cruz 6%
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .
Design and development by Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe, Ritchie King and Andrei Scheinkman. Research by Harry Enten and Dhrumil Mehta. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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