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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

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Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Kasich
Trump

There’s no forecast for New Jersey yet because there isn’t enough recent polling.


Nonetheless, we’re tracking polling results as they come in, calculating a weighted polling average for each candidate.

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the New Jersey Republican primary, we’ve collected 10 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Trump
Kasich
Apr. 1-8 Rutgers-Eagleton244 RV
0.14
Trump +28
52%
24%
Feb. 6-15 Rutgers-Eagleton227 RV
0.00
Trump +27*
38%
8%
Nov. 30-Dec. 6 Rutgers-Eagleton203 RV
0.00
Trump +16*
30%
2%
Nov. 9-15 Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind)307 RV
0.00
Trump +13*
31%
2%
Nov. 4-8 Quinnipiac University481 RV
0.00
Trump +15*
31%
3%
Oct. 3-10 Rutgers-Eagleton266 RV
0.00
Trump +19*
32%
2%
Jul. 25-Aug. 1 Rutgers-Eagleton263 RV
0.00
Trump +9*
21%
2%
Jun. 15-21 Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind)267 RV
0.00
Tie*
11%
Apr. 9-14 Quinnipiac University444 RV
0.00
Christie +8*
1%
Jan. 15-19 Quinnipiac University337 RV
0.00
Christie +9*
0%
Apr. 1-8
244 RV
Trump +28
Trump 52%
Kasich 24%
Feb. 6-15
227 RV
Trump +27*
Trump 38%
Kasich 8%
Nov. 30-Dec. 6
203 RV
Trump +16*
Trump 30%
Kasich 2%
Trump 31%
Kasich 2%
Nov. 4-8
481 RV
Trump +15*
Trump 31%
Kasich 3%
Oct. 3-10
266 RV
Trump +19*
Trump 32%
Kasich 2%
Jul. 25-Aug. 1
263 RV
Trump +9*
Trump 21%
Kasich 2%
Trump 11%
Apr. 9-14
444 RV
Christie +8*
Kasich 1%
Jan. 15-19
337 RV
Christie +9*
Kasich 0%
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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