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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton had a 98% chance of winning the New York primary.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Clinton
Sanders

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the New York Democratic primary, we’ve collected 21 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Clinton
Sanders
Apr. 15-17 Emerson College438 LV
0.68
Clinton +15
55%
40%
Apr. 13-15 YouGov1,030 LV
0.65
Clinton +10
53%
43%
Apr. 10-13 Marist College591 LV
0.40
Clinton +17
57%
40%
Apr. 13 Gravis Marketing635 LV
0.36
Clinton +6
53%
47%
Apr. 6-11 Quinnipiac University860 LV
0.23
Clinton +13
53%
40%
Apr. 6-11 Siena College538 LV
0.21
Clinton +10
52%
42%
Apr. 7-10 Public Policy Polling663 LV
0.17
Clinton +11
51%
40%
Apr. 8-10 Monmouth University302 LV
0.15
Clinton +12
51%
39%
Apr. 5-10 Baruch College632 LV
0.09
Clinton +13
50%
37%
Apr. 6-10 Marist College557 LV
0.07
Clinton +14
55%
41%
Apr. 15-17
438 LV
Clinton +15
Clinton 55%
Sanders 40%
Apr. 13-15
1,030 LV
Clinton +10
Clinton 53%
Sanders 43%
Apr. 10-13
591 LV
Clinton +17
Clinton 57%
Sanders 40%
Apr. 13
635 LV
Clinton +6
Clinton 53%
Sanders 47%
Apr. 6-11
860 LV
Clinton +13
Clinton 53%
Sanders 40%
Apr. 6-11
538 LV
Clinton +10
Clinton 52%
Sanders 42%
Apr. 7-10
663 LV
Clinton +11
Clinton 51%
Sanders 40%
Apr. 8-10
302 LV
Clinton +12
Clinton 51%
Sanders 39%
Apr. 5-10
632 LV
Clinton +13
Clinton 50%
Sanders 37%
Apr. 6-10
557 LV
Clinton +14
Clinton 55%
Sanders 41%
Show more polls ▾
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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