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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump had a greater than 99% chance of winning the New York primary.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Trump
Kasich
Cruz

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the New York Republican primary, we’ve collected 26 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Trump
Kasich
Cruz
Apr. 15-17 Emerson College361 LV
0.62
Trump +34
55%
21%
18%
Apr. 13-15 YouGov705 LV
0.57
Trump +33
54%
19%
21%
Apr. 11-14 Øptimus14,201 LV
0.43
Trump +25
51%
26%
15%
Apr. 13 Gravis Marketing481 LV
0.32
Trump +35
57%
22%
20%
Apr. 10-13 Marist College313 LV
0.26
Trump +29
54%
25%
16%
Apr. 6-11 Siena College469 LV
0.19
Trump +23
50%
27%
17%
Apr. 6-11 Quinnipiac University550 LV
0.18
Trump +35
55%
20%
19%
Apr. 7-10 Public Policy Polling483 LV
0.15
Trump +26
51%
25%
20%
Apr. 6-7 Liberty Opinion Research6,041 LV
0.10
Trump +29
52%
23%
19%
Apr. 4-7 Fox News602 LV
0.08
Trump +32
54%
22%
15%
Apr. 15-17
361 LV
Trump +34
Trump 55%
Kasich 21%
Cruz 18%
Apr. 13-15
705 LV
Trump +33
Trump 54%
Cruz 21%
Kasich 19%
Apr. 11-14
14,201 LV
Trump +25
Trump 51%
Kasich 26%
Cruz 15%
Apr. 13
481 LV
Trump +35
Trump 57%
Kasich 22%
Cruz 20%
Apr. 10-13
313 LV
Trump +29
Trump 54%
Kasich 25%
Cruz 16%
Apr. 6-11
469 LV
Trump +23
Trump 50%
Kasich 27%
Cruz 17%
Apr. 6-11
550 LV
Trump +35
Trump 55%
Kasich 20%
Cruz 19%
Apr. 7-10
483 LV
Trump +26
Trump 51%
Kasich 25%
Cruz 20%
Apr. 6-7
6,041 LV
Trump +29
Trump 52%
Kasich 23%
Cruz 19%
Apr. 4-7
602 LV
Trump +32
Trump 54%
Kasich 22%
Cruz 15%
Show more polls ▾
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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