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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton had a greater than 99% chance of winning the Pennsylvania primary.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Clinton
Sanders

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, we’ve collected 32 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Clinton
Sanders
Apr. 22-24 Public Policy Polling728 LV
1.01
Clinton +10
51%
41%
Apr. 24 Opinion Savvy942 LV
0.69
Clinton +11
52%
41%
Apr. 22-24 CPEC LLC665 LV
0.67
Clinton +26
63%
37%
Apr. 21-23 Harper Polling641 LV
0.57
Clinton +28
61%
33%
Apr. 20-22 YouGov831 LV
0.56
Clinton +8
51%
43%
Apr. 21-24 American Research Group400 LV
0.48
Clinton +20
58%
38%
Apr. 18-20 Marist College734 LV
0.46
Clinton +15
55%
40%
Apr. 17-19 Monmouth University302 LV
0.21
Clinton +13
52%
39%
Apr. 21-23 CPEC LLC665 LV
0.09
Clinton +29
62%
33%
Apr. 11-18 Franklin & Marshall College321 LV
0.09
Clinton +27
58%
31%
Apr. 22-24
728 LV
Clinton +10
Clinton 51%
Sanders 41%
Apr. 24
942 LV
Clinton +11
Clinton 52%
Sanders 41%
Apr. 22-24
665 LV
Clinton +26
Clinton 63%
Sanders 37%
Apr. 21-23
641 LV
Clinton +28
Clinton 61%
Sanders 33%
Apr. 20-22
831 LV
Clinton +8
Clinton 51%
Sanders 43%
Apr. 21-24
400 LV
Clinton +20
Clinton 58%
Sanders 38%
Apr. 18-20
734 LV
Clinton +15
Clinton 55%
Sanders 40%
Apr. 17-19
302 LV
Clinton +13
Clinton 52%
Sanders 39%
Apr. 21-23
665 LV
Clinton +29
Clinton 62%
Sanders 33%
Apr. 11-18
321 LV
Clinton +27
Clinton 58%
Sanders 31%
Show more polls ▾
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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