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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump had a greater than 99% chance of winning the Pennsylvania primary.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Trump
Cruz
Kasich

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Pennsylvania Republican primary, we’ve collected 30 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Trump
Cruz
Kasich
Apr. 22-24 Public Policy Polling826 LV
1.06
Trump +26
51%
25%
22%
Apr. 24 Opinion Savvy1,050 LV
0.70
Trump +20
48%
28%
19%
Apr. 20-22 YouGov934 LV
0.59
Trump +23
49%
26%
22%
Apr. 21-24 American Research Group400 LV
0.48
Trump +27
50%
23%
21%
Apr. 18-20 Marist College571 LV
0.40
Trump +18
45%
27%
24%
Apr. 11-18 Franklin & Marshall College364 LV
0.10
Trump +14
40%
26%
24%
Apr. 10-12 Monmouth University303 LV
0.04
Trump +16
44%
28%
23%
Apr. 13-15 YouGov833 LV
0.02
Trump +20
46%
26%
23%
Apr. 7-12 Muhlenberg422 LV
0.02
Trump +15
41%
23%
26%
Apr. 4-7 Fox News802 LV
0.01
Trump +26
48%
20%
22%
Apr. 22-24
826 LV
Trump +26
Trump 51%
Cruz 25%
Kasich 22%
Apr. 24
1,050 LV
Trump +20
Trump 48%
Cruz 28%
Kasich 19%
Apr. 20-22
934 LV
Trump +23
Trump 49%
Cruz 26%
Kasich 22%
Apr. 21-24
400 LV
Trump +27
Trump 50%
Cruz 23%
Kasich 21%
Apr. 18-20
571 LV
Trump +18
Trump 45%
Cruz 27%
Kasich 24%
Apr. 11-18
364 LV
Trump +14
Trump 40%
Cruz 26%
Kasich 24%
Apr. 10-12
303 LV
Trump +16
Trump 44%
Cruz 28%
Kasich 23%
Apr. 13-15
833 LV
Trump +20
Trump 46%
Cruz 26%
Kasich 23%
Apr. 7-12
422 LV
Trump +15
Trump 41%
Kasich 26%
Cruz 23%
Apr. 4-7
802 LV
Trump +26
Trump 48%
Kasich 22%
Cruz 20%
Show more polls ▾
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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