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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump had a greater than 99% chance of winning the Rhode Island primary.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Trump
Kasich
Cruz

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Rhode Island Republican primary, we’ve collected five polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Trump
Kasich
Cruz
Apr. 22-24 Public Policy Polling511 LV
0.87
Trump +38
61%
23%
13%
Apr. 23-24 Gravis Marketing566 LV
0.78
Trump +37
58%
21%
10%
Apr. 19-21 Brown University164 LV
0.15
Trump +13
38%
25%
14%
Feb. 22-23 Brown University206 LV
0.00
Trump +18*
43%
14%
10%
Feb. 17-20 Brown University204 LV
0.00
Trump +27*
41%
12%
8%
Apr. 22-24
511 LV
Trump +38
Trump 61%
Kasich 23%
Cruz 13%
Apr. 23-24
566 LV
Trump +37
Trump 58%
Kasich 21%
Cruz 10%
Apr. 19-21
164 LV
Trump +13
Trump 38%
Kasich 25%
Cruz 14%
Feb. 22-23
206 LV
Trump +18*
Trump 43%
Kasich 14%
Cruz 10%
Feb. 17-20
204 LV
Trump +27*
Trump 41%
Kasich 12%
Cruz 8%
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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