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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

See our 2016 general election forecast for Tennessee »

p Tennessee Democratic primary

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton had a greater than 99% chance of winning the Tennessee primary.

Chance of winning, based on state polls only.

Chance of winning, based on state polls, national polls and endorsements.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Clinton
Sanders

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Tennessee Democratic primary, we’ve collected five polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

• = new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Clinton
Sanders
•Feb. 22-25 Marist College405 LV
0.45
Clinton +26
60%
34%
•Feb. 22-29 SurveyMonkey533 RV
0.37
Clinton +17
54%
37%
•Feb. 14-16 Public Policy Polling500 LV
0.07
Clinton +26
58%
32%
•Jan. 15-20 MTSU135 RV
0.00
Clinton +32
47%
15%
•Nov. 11-23 PSRA346 RV
0.00
Clinton +20
48%
28%
•Feb. 22-25
Marist College
405 LV
Clinton +26
Clinton 60%
Sanders 34%
•Feb. 22-29
SurveyMonkey
533 RV
Clinton +17
Clinton 54%
Sanders 37%
•Feb. 14-16
Public Policy Polling
500 LV
Clinton +26
Clinton 58%
Sanders 32%
•Jan. 15-20
MTSU
135 RV
Clinton +32
Clinton 47%
Sanders 15%
•Nov. 11-23
PSRA
346 RV
Clinton +20
Clinton 48%
Sanders 28%
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .
Design and development by Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe, Ritchie King and Andrei Scheinkman. Research by Harry Enten and Dhrumil Mehta. Statistical model by Nate Silver.

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