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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump had a 92% chance of winning the Tennessee primary.

Ben Carson and John Kasich had less than a 1% chance of winning.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Trump
Rubio
Cruz
Carson
Kasich

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Tennessee Republican primary, we’ve collected five polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Trump
Rubio
Cruz
Carson
Kasich
Feb. 22-25 Marist College665 LV
0.61
Trump +18
40%
19%
22%
9%
6%
Feb. 22-29 SurveyMonkey772 RV
0.44
Trump +30
48%
18%
15%
10%
5%
Jan. 15-20 MTSU232 RV
0.00
Trump +16
33%
5%
17%
7%
0%
Nov. 11-23 PSRA495 RV
0.00
Trump +4
29%
12%
14%
25%
Aug. 3 Opinion Savvy440 LV
0.00
Trump +20
35%
3%
6%
15%
3%
Feb. 22-25
665 LV
Trump +18
Trump 40%
Cruz 22%
Rubio 19%
Carson 9%
Kasich 6%
Feb. 22-29
772 RV
Trump +30
Trump 48%
Rubio 18%
Cruz 15%
Carson 10%
Kasich 5%
Jan. 15-20
232 RV
Trump +16
Trump 33%
Cruz 17%
Carson 7%
Rubio 5%
Kasich 0%
Nov. 11-23
495 RV
Trump +4
Trump 29%
Carson 25%
Cruz 14%
Rubio 12%
Aug. 3
440 LV
Trump +20
Trump 35%
Carson 15%
Cruz 6%
Kasich 3%
Rubio 3%
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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