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2016 Primary Forecasts

The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

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UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton had a greater than 99% chance of winning the Virginia primary.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Clinton
Sanders

Not all pollsare created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Virginia Democratic primary, we’ve collected 11 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Clinton
Sanders
Feb. 22-29 SurveyMonkey908 RV
0.47
Clinton +21
57%
36%
Feb. 22-26 YouGov481 LV
0.43
Clinton +20
59%
39%
Feb. 22-24 Monmouth University302 LV
0.35
Clinton +27
60%
33%
Feb. 16-24 Roanoke College415 LV
0.13
Clinton +17
50%
33%
Feb. 14-16 Public Policy Polling500 LV
0.07
Clinton +22
56%
34%
Feb. 3-14 Christopher Newport University286 LV
0.00
Clinton +12
52%
40%
Nov. 4-9 PSRAI276 LV
0.00
Clinton +36
63%
27%
Sep. 29-Oct. 8 Christopher Newport University407 RV
0.00
Clinton +17
40%
23%
Jul. 13-15 Public Policy Polling409 LV
0.00
Clinton +50
64%
14%
Apr. 13-24 Christopher Newport University259 RV
0.00
Clinton +74*
80%
2%
Jan. 30-Feb. 10 Christopher Newport University317 RV
0.00
Clinton +55*
65%
2%
Feb. 22-29
908 RV
Clinton +21
Clinton 57%
Sanders 36%
Feb. 22-26
481 LV
Clinton +20
Clinton 59%
Sanders 39%
Feb. 22-24
302 LV
Clinton +27
Clinton 60%
Sanders 33%
Feb. 16-24
415 LV
Clinton +17
Clinton 50%
Sanders 33%
Feb. 14-16
500 LV
Clinton +22
Clinton 56%
Sanders 34%
Feb. 3-14
286 LV
Clinton +12
Clinton 52%
Sanders 40%
Nov. 4-9
276 LV
Clinton +36
Clinton 63%
Sanders 27%
Sep. 29-Oct. 8
407 RV
Clinton +17
Clinton 40%
Sanders 23%
Jul. 13-15
409 LV
Clinton +50
Clinton 64%
Sanders 14%
Apr. 13-24
259 RV
Clinton +74*
Clinton 80%
Sanders 2%
Jan. 30-Feb. 10
317 RV
Clinton +55*
Clinton 65%
Sanders 2%
*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
If you can’t find a contest in the dropdown menu above, it’s because there hasn’t been enough polling in that state yet. We’ll add new polling averages and forecasts as soon as the data is available. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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