Archived predictions from Mar 17, 2014
Hover over each spot to see the team most likely to get there
Design and development by Matthew Conlen, Ritchie King, Allison McCann and Andrei Scheinkman. Statistical model by Nate Silver. Download this data. Report any bugs.
Chance of Reaching Round
RegionSeedTeam2nd3rdSweet 16Elite 8Final 4Champ.Win
Midwest4Louisville√
93%
78%
54%
38%
24%
15%
South1Florida√
99%
84%
62%
41%
26%
14%
West1Arizona√
98%
73%
58%
42%
23%
13%
South2Kansas√
92%
67%
42%
21%
12%
6%
East1Virginia√
96%
71%
39%
23%
12%
6%
East4Michigan State√
91%
67%
39%
24%
12%
6%
Midwest3Duke√
93%
70%
43%
18%
9%
5%
Midwest1Wichita State√
98%
59%
24%
14%
8%
5%
East2Villanova√
95%
64%
41%
21%
9%
4%
West2Wisconsin√
93%
72%
40%
16%
7%
3%
Midwest2Michigan√
95%
74%
37%
14%
6%
3%
West3Creighton√
88%
54%
30%
12%
5%
3%
Midwest8Kentucky√
74%
34%
14%
8%
4%
2%
South6Ohio State√
75%
40%
20%
9%
4%
2%
South4UCLA√
87%
63%
19%
8%
4%
1%
South3Syracuse√
89%
50%
23%
9%
4%
1%
East3Iowa State√
81%
46%
20%
8%
3%
1%
West9Oklahoma State√
52%
14%
9%
5%
2%
1%
East6North Carolina√
68%
36%
16%
6%
2%
<1%
West6Baylor√
70%
34%
14%
4%
2%
<1%
South5Virginia Commonwealth√
76%
29%
10%
4%
2%
<1%
West4San Diego State√
73%
43%
14%
7%
2%
<1%
East7Connecticut√
67%
26%
14%
6%
2%
<1%
West8Gonzaga√
48%
13%
8%
4%
1%
<1%
South7New Mexico√
64%
22%
10%
3%
1%
<1%
West5Oklahoma√
64%
33%
8%
3%
1%
<1%
South9Pittsburgh√
72%
14%
7%
3%
1%
<1%
East5Cincinnati√
58%
19%
8%
3%
1%
<1%
West7Oregon√
65%
19%
10%
4%
1%
<1%
Midwest11bTennessee
52%
36%
12%
6%
2%
<1%
<1%
Midwest11aIowa
48%
32%
9%
5%
2%
<1%
<1%
East8Memphis√
55%
17%
6%
2%
<1%
<1%
Midwest5Saint Louis√
58%
12%
4%
2%
<1%
<1%
East12Harvard√
42%
12%
4%
2%
<1%
<1%
East9George Washington√
45%
12%
4%
1%
<1%
<1%
Midwest7Texas√
50%
13%
3%
<1%
<1%
<1%
East11Providence√
32%
12%
4%
1%
<1%
<1%
South10Stanford√
36%
9%
3%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Midwest10Arizona State√
50%
13%
3%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Midwest9Kansas State√
26%
7%
1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Midwest12bXavier
64%
28%
5%
2%
<1%
<1%
<1%
West11Nebraska√
30%
9%
3%
<1%
<1%
<1%
East10Saint Joseph's√
33%
8%
3%
<1%
<1%
<1%
South11Dayton√
25%
8%
2%
<1%
<1%
<1%
West10Brigham Young√
35%
7%
3%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Midwest6Massachusetts√
32%
6%
2%
<1%
<1%
<1%
West12North Dakota State√
36%
15%
2%
<1%
<1%
<1%
South8Colorado√
28%
2%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
West13New Mexico State√
27%
10%
1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
South13Tulsa√
13%
4%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
South12Stephen F. Austin√
24%
4%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Midwest12aNorth Carolina State
36%
15%
2%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
East14North Carolina Central√
19%
5%
1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Midwest13Manhattan√
7%
3%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
East13Delaware√
9%
2%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Midwest14Mercer√
7%
2%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
South14Western Michigan√
11%
2%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
West14Louisiana-Lafayette√
12%
3%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
South15Eastern Kentucky√
8%
2%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
West15American University√
7%
2%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
East15Milwaukee√
5%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
West16Weber State√
2%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Midwest15Wofford√
5%
1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
East16Coastal Carolina√
4%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
South16aAlbany
52%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
South16bMount St. Mary's
48%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Midwest16aCal Poly
56%
1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Midwest16bTexas Southern
44%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Chance of Reaching
2nd3rdSweet 16Elite 8Final 4ChampWin
Louisville√
93%
78%
54%
38%
24%
15%
Florida√
99%
84%
62%
41%
26%
14%
Arizona√
98%
73%
58%
42%
23%
13%
Kansas√
92%
67%
42%
21%
12%
6%
Virginia√
96%
71%
39%
23%
12%
6%
MSU√
91%
67%
39%
24%
12%
6%
Duke√
93%
70%
43%
18%
9%
5%
Wichita St.√
98%
59%
24%
14%
8%
5%
Villanova√
95%
64%
41%
21%
9%
4%
Wisconsin√
93%
72%
40%
16%
7%
3%
Michigan√
95%
74%
37%
14%
6%
3%
Creighton√
88%
54%
30%
12%
5%
3%
Kentucky√
74%
34%
14%
8%
4%
2%
Ohio State√
75%
40%
20%
9%
4%
2%
UCLA√
87%
63%
19%
8%
4%
1%
Syracuse√
89%
50%
23%
9%
4%
1%
Iowa State√
81%
46%
20%
8%
3%
1%
Okla. State√
52%
14%
9%
5%
2%
1%
UNC√
68%
36%
16%
6%
2%
<1%
Baylor√
70%
34%
14%
4%
2%
<1%
VCU√
76%
29%
10%
4%
2%
<1%
S.D. State√
73%
43%
14%
7%
2%
<1%
Connecticut√
67%
26%
14%
6%
2%
<1%
Gonzaga√
48%
13%
8%
4%
1%
<1%
New Mexico√
64%
22%
10%
3%
1%
<1%
Oklahoma√
64%
33%
8%
3%
1%
<1%
Pittsburgh√
72%
14%
7%
3%
1%
<1%
Cincinnati√
58%
19%
8%
3%
1%
<1%
Oregon√
65%
19%
10%
4%
1%
<1%
Tennessee
52%
36%
12%
6%
2%
<1%
<1%
Iowa
48%
32%
9%
5%
2%
<1%
<1%
Memphis√
55%
17%
6%
2%
<1%
<1%
St. Louis√
58%
12%
4%
2%
<1%
<1%
Harvard√
42%
12%
4%
2%
<1%
<1%
GW√
45%
12%
4%
1%
<1%
<1%
Texas√
50%
13%
3%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Providence√
32%
12%
4%
1%
<1%
<1%
Stanford√
36%
9%
3%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Arizona St.√
50%
13%
3%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Kansas St.√
26%
7%
1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Xavier
64%
28%
5%
2%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Nebraska√
30%
9%
3%
<1%
<1%
<1%
St. Joseph's√
33%
8%
3%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Dayton√
25%
8%
2%
<1%
<1%
<1%
BYU√
35%
7%
3%
<1%
<1%
<1%
UMass√
32%
6%
2%
<1%
<1%
<1%
N.D. State√
36%
15%
2%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Colorado√
28%
2%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
N.M. State√
27%
10%
1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Tulsa√
13%
4%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
SF Austin√
24%
4%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
N.C. State
36%
15%
2%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
NCCU√
19%
5%
1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Manhattan√
7%
3%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Delaware√
9%
2%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Mercer√
7%
2%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
W. Mich.√
11%
2%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
La.-Lafayette√
12%
3%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
E. Kentucky√
8%
2%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
American√
7%
2%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Milwaukee√
5%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Weber St.√
2%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Wofford√
5%
1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
CCAR√
4%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Albany
52%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Mt. St. Mary's
48%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Cal Poly
56%
1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
TXSO
44%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%