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We love the Academy Awards: the glitz! the glam! the shameless campaigning! This year, we’re keeping up with the race to the Oscars — will the night belong to “Moonlight” or “La La Land”? can Denzel win No. 3? who’s Mel Gibson? — with the scorecards below. Nominees get points by earning nods and wins from other film awards, such as the Golden Globes, with more points available for awards that have tracked closely with the Oscars over the past 25 years. We’ll be updating the scores until Oscar night, Feb. 26. Follow along with us! How this works ...
In this category, we trust the guilds. The Directors Guild, Producers Guild and Screen Actors Guild awards offer the best insight into how the academy may vote on best picture. Last year, each of those awards broke in favor of a different movie, leading to a tight three-way race and general chaos. Will it go that way again? “La La Land,” “Manchester by the Sea” and “Moonlight” have beguiled the critics, but it’s still anyone’s race.
La La Land
319
Won New York Critics, Critics’ Choice, Satellite, Golden Globes (comedy), American Cinema Editors (comedy), Producers Guild, Directors Guild, BAFTA
Moonlight
124
Won Los Angeles Critics, Chicago Critics, Golden Globes (drama), Writers Guild (Original)
Arrival
106
Won American Cinema Editors (drama), Writers Guild (Adapted)
Manchester by the Sea
104
Won Satellite, National Board of Review
Hidden Figures
79
Won Screen Actors Guild
Lion
55
Fences
43
Hell or High Water
40
Hacksaw Ridge
38
| Nominee | Jan. 28Producers Guild87 pts for win17 for nom | Jan. 29Screen Actors Guild55 pts for win11 for nom | Feb. 4Directors Guild116 pts for win23 for nom | Other nominations and awards | Total points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 116 | 116 | 319 | |
| 17 | 11 | 23 | 73 | 124 |
| 17 | 23 | 66 | 106 | |
| 17 | 11 | 23 | 53 | 104 |
| 17 | 55 | 7 | 79 | |
| 17 | 23 | 15 | 55 | |
| 17 | 11 | 15 | 43 | |
| 17 | 23 | 40 | ||
| 17 | 21 | 38 |
Over the past 25 years, the winner of the “feature film” category at the Directors Guild awards went on to win the Academy Award for best director 21 times (a ridiculous 84 percent of the time). The DGA winner gets more than three times the points as the second-most-valuable win in this category, the Critics’ Choice Award for best director. Of this year’s Oscar nominees, directors Damien Chazelle, Barry Jenkins, Kenneth Lonergan and Denis Villeneuve were up for the DGA prize, and Chazelle won it.
Damien Chazelle
La La Land
244
Won Critics’ Choice, Golden Globes, Directors Guild, BAFTA
Barry Jenkins
Moonlight
86
Won New York Critics, Los Angeles Critics, Chicago Critics, National Board of Review
Kenneth Lonergan
Manchester by the Sea
59
Won Satellite
Denis Villeneuve
Arrival
41
Mel Gibson
Hacksaw Ridge
16
| Nominee | Dec. 11Critics’ Choice41 pts for win8 for nom | Jan. 8Golden Globes31 pts for win6 for nom | Feb. 4Directors Guild141 pts for win28 for nom | Other nominations and awards | Total points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 31 | 141 | 31 | 244 |
| 8 | 6 | 28 | 44 | 86 |
| 8 | 6 | 28 | 17 | 59 |
| 8 | 28 | 5 | 41 | |
| 8 | 6 | 2 | 16 |
A perennial favorite to watch, this category once again looks like it’ll be competitive. A surprise win at the Golden Globes put Isabelle Huppert back in the conversation just as it looked like Natalie Portman would be dueling Emma Stone for the prize. Stone’s wins at the Screen Actors Guild Awards and the British Academy of Film and Television Arts have made her the clear leader.
Emma Stone
La La Land
187
Won Golden Globes (comedy), Screen Actors Guild, BAFTA
Isabelle Huppert
Elle
96
Won New York Critics, Los Angeles Critics, Satellite, Golden Globes (drama)
Natalie Portman
Jackie
96
Won Critics’ Choice, Chicago Critics
Meryl Streep
Florence Foster Jenkins
39
Ruth Negga
Loving
35
Won Satellite
| Nominee | Jan. 8Golden Globes (drama)46 pts for win9 for nom | Jan. 29Screen Actors Guild106 pts for win21 for nom | Feb. 12BAFTA63 pts for win13 for nom | Other nominations and awards | Total points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 106 | 63 | 18 | 187 | |
| 46 | 50 | 96 | ||
| 9 | 21 | 13 | 53 | 96 |
| 21 | 13 | 5 | 39 | |
| 9 | 26 | 35 |
The Screen Actors Guild’s choice for best actor has gone on to win at the Academy Awards 18 out of the past 22 years, so that’s the show to watch. Casey Affleck has been cleaning up at the critics awards, but any category with Denzel Washington in it is far from decided. Washington's win at the SAG Awards has kept him in the race, but Affleck's victory at the BAFTAs makes him the favorite here.
Casey Affleck
Manchester by the Sea
193
Won New York Critics, Critics’ Choice, Chicago Critics, National Board of Review, Golden Globes (drama), BAFTA
Denzel Washington
Fences
154
Won Screen Actors Guild
Andrew Garfield
Hacksaw Ridge
64
Won Satellite
Viggo Mortensen
Captain Fantastic
56
Won Satellite
Ryan Gosling
La La Land
49
Won Golden Globes (comedy)
| Nominee | Dec. 11Critics’ Choice38 pts for win8 for nom | Jan. 29Screen Actors Guild134 pts for win27 for nom | Feb. 12BAFTA54 pts for win11 for nom | Other nominations and awards | Total points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 27 | 54 | 74 | 193 |
| 8 | 134 | 12 | 154 | |
| 8 | 27 | 11 | 18 | 64 |
| 27 | 11 | 18 | 56 | |
| 8 | 27 | 11 | 3 | 49 |
Typically, at least one Oscars category is a slam dunk; last season, Brie Larson and Leonardo DiCaprio were the runaway favorites to win the main acting awards by freaking Christmas. This season, it might be best supporting actress — Viola Davis has pulled in most of the hardware from critics so far. With a win at the SAG Awards, Davis is the clear front-runner.
Viola Davis
Fences
213
Won Critics’ Choice, Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild, BAFTA
Michelle Williams
Manchester by the Sea
61
Won New York Critics, Chicago Critics
Naomie Harris
Moonlight
53
Won Satellite, National Board of Review
Nicole Kidman
Lion
44
Octavia Spencer
Hidden Figures
25
| Nominee | Dec. 11Critics’ Choice38 pts for win8 for nom | Jan. 29Screen Actors Guild87 pts for win17 for nom | Feb. 12BAFTA54 pts for win11 for nom | Other nominations and awards | Total points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 87 | 54 | 34 | 213 |
| 8 | 17 | 11 | 25 | 61 |
| 8 | 17 | 11 | 17 | 53 |
| 8 | 17 | 11 | 8 | 44 |
| 17 | 8 | 25 |
This is one of the only categories in which the Golden Globes carry a lot of weight. Last year, Sylvester Stallone won, but the Oscar race became a too-close-to-call bracket buster after Mark Rylance’s victory at the BAFTAs. This year, Aaron Taylor-Johnson’s win at the Globes threw a wrench into our model’s ability to call this category, considering that he didn’t get an Oscar nod. But after a win at SAG, it’s Mahershala Ali’s Oscar to lose.
Mahershala Ali
Moonlight
157
Won New York Critics, Los Angeles Critics, Critics’ Choice, Chicago Critics, Screen Actors Guild
Dev Patel
Lion
68
Won BAFTA
Jeff Bridges
Hell or High Water
44
Won Satellite, National Board of Review
Lucas Hedges
Manchester by the Sea
24
Michael Shannon
Nocturnal Animals
9
| Nominee | Jan. 8Golden Globes46 pts for win9 for nom | Jan. 29Screen Actors Guild70 pts for win14 for nom | Feb. 12BAFTA39 pts for win8 for nom | Other nominations and awards | Total points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 70 | 8 | 70 | 157 |
| 9 | 14 | 39 | 6 | 68 |
| 9 | 14 | 8 | 13 | 44 |
| 14 | 10 | 24 | ||
| 9 | 9 |
This is the first year that we’re tracking the race for the best animated feature Oscar, which is a somewhat recent addition to the Academy Awards. But even though we have only 15 years of data, the precursor prizes have been very, very good at calling the eventual Oscar winner. At least two-thirds of the time, the winner of the feature animation prizes from the BAFTAs, American Cinema Editors awards, Annie Awards, Critics’ Choice Awards, Golden Globes and National Board of Review went on to win the Oscar.
Zootopia
482
Won New York Critics, Critics’ Choice, Golden Globes, American Cinema Editors, Producers Guild, Annie Awards
Kubo and the Two Strings
329
Won Chicago Critics, National Board of Review, BAFTA
Moana
125
The Red Turtle
25
My Life as a Zucchini
10
| Nominee | Jan. 27American Cinema Editors147 pts for win29 for nom | Feb. 4Annie Awards89 pts for win18 for nom | Feb. 12BAFTA162 pts for win32 for nom | Other nominations and awards | Total points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 147 | 89 | 32 | 214 | 482 |
| 29 | 18 | 162 | 120 | 329 |
| 29 | 18 | 32 | 46 | 125 |
| 25 | 25 | |||
| 10 | 10 |
This category is new to the model, and no pre-Oscar award is highly predictive. There are a couple of reasons for that: The groups that have a long history of honoring documentaries (the Directors Guild, the New York Film Critics Circle) aren’t very good at recognizing the eventual Oscar winner, and the groups that are good at predicting it (the British Academy, the Producers Guild) haven’t been giving out documentary prizes for long.
O.J.: Made in America
122
Won Critics’ Choice, New York Critics, Chicago Critics, National Board of Review, American Cinema Editors, Producers Guild, Directors Guild
13th
83
Won Satellite, BAFTA
Life, Animated
15
I Am Not Your Negro
8
Won Los Angeles Critics
Fire at Sea
4
| Nominee | Jan. 27American Cinema Editors32 pts for win6 for nom | Jan. 28Producers Guild40 pts for win8 for nom | Feb. 12BAFTA72 pts for win14 for nom | Other nominations and awards | Total points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 40 | 50 | 122 | |
| 6 | 72 | 5 | 83 | |
| 8 | 7 | 15 | ||
| 8 | 8 | |||
| 4 | 4 |