Tracking The Oscars Race

Updated on Feb. 27 with Oscars results

We love the Academy Awards: the glitz! the glam! the shameless campaigning! This year, we’re keeping up with the race to the Oscars — will the night belong to “Moonlight” or “La La Land”? can Denzel win No. 3? who’s Mel Gibson? — with the scorecards below. Nominees get points by earning nods and wins from other film awards, such as the Golden Globes, with more points available for awards that have tracked closely with the Oscars over the past 25 years. We’ll be updating the scores until Oscar night, Feb. 26. Follow along with us! How this works ...

Leaders

  1. La La Land

    Best picture

    La La Land

  2. Damien Chazelle

    Best director

    Damien Chazelle, La La Land

  3. Emma Stone

    Best actress

    Emma Stone, La La Land

  4. Casey Affleck

    Best actor

    Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

  5. Viola Davis

    Best supporting actress

    Viola Davis, Fences

  6. Mahershala Ali

    Best supporting actor

    Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

  7. Zootopia

    Best animated feature

    Zootopia

  8. O.J.: Made in America

    Best documentary

    O.J.: Made in America

Best picture

In this category, we trust the guilds. The Directors Guild, Producers Guild and Screen Actors Guild awards offer the best insight into how the academy may vote on best picture. Last year, each of those awards broke in favor of a different movie, leading to a tight three-way race and general chaos. Will it go that way again? “La La Land,” “Manchester by the Sea” and “Moonlight” have beguiled the critics, but it’s still anyone’s race.

Nominee

Points from awards and nominations

La La Land

La La Land

319

Won New York Critics, Critics’ Choice, Satellite, Golden Globes (comedy), American Cinema Editors (comedy), Producers Guild, Directors Guild, BAFTA

Moonlight

Moonlight

124

Won Los Angeles Critics, Chicago Critics, Golden Globes (drama), Writers Guild (Original)

Arrival

Arrival

106

Won American Cinema Editors (drama), Writers Guild (Adapted)

Manchester by the Sea

Manchester by the Sea

104

Won Satellite, National Board of Review

Hidden Figures

Hidden Figures

79

Won Screen Actors Guild

Lion

Lion

55

Fences

Fences

43

Hell or High Water

Hell or High Water

40

Hacksaw Ridge

Hacksaw Ridge

38

NomineeJan. 28Producers Guild87 pts for win17 for nomJan. 29Screen Actors Guild55 pts for win11 for nomFeb. 4Directors Guild116 pts for win23 for nomOther nominations and awardsTotal points
La La Land
La La Land
87 116116319
Moonlight
Moonlight
17 11 2373124
Arrival
Arrival
17 2366106
Manchester by the Sea
Manchester by the Sea
17 11 2353104
Hidden Figures
Hidden Figures
17 55 779
Lion
Lion
17 231555
Fences
Fences
17 11 1543
Hell or High Water
Hell or High Water
17 2340
Hacksaw Ridge
Hacksaw Ridge
17 2138

Best director

Over the past 25 years, the winner of the “feature film” category at the Directors Guild awards went on to win the Academy Award for best director 21 times (a ridiculous 84 percent of the time). The DGA winner gets more than three times the points as the second-most-valuable win in this category, the Critics’ Choice Award for best director. Of this year’s Oscar nominees, directors Damien Chazelle, Barry Jenkins, Kenneth Lonergan and Denis Villeneuve were up for the DGA prize, and Chazelle won it.

Nominee

Points from awards and nominations

Damien Chazelle

Damien Chazelle

La La Land

244

Won Critics’ Choice, Golden Globes, Directors Guild, BAFTA

Barry Jenkins

Barry Jenkins

Moonlight

86

Won New York Critics, Los Angeles Critics, Chicago Critics, National Board of Review

Kenneth Lonergan

Kenneth Lonergan

Manchester by the Sea

59

Won Satellite

Denis Villeneuve

Denis Villeneuve

Arrival

41

Mel Gibson

Mel Gibson

Hacksaw Ridge

16

NomineeDec. 11Critics’ Choice41 pts for win8 for nomJan. 8Golden Globes31 pts for win6 for nomFeb. 4Directors Guild141 pts for win28 for nomOther nominations and awardsTotal points
Damien Chazelle
Damien ChazelleLa La Land
41 31 14131244
Barry Jenkins
Barry JenkinsMoonlight
8 6 284486
Kenneth Lonergan
Kenneth LonerganManchester by the Sea
8 6 281759
Denis Villeneuve
Denis VilleneuveArrival
8 28541
Mel Gibson
Mel GibsonHacksaw Ridge
8 6 216

Best actress

A perennial favorite to watch, this category once again looks like it’ll be competitive. A surprise win at the Golden Globes put Isabelle Huppert back in the conversation just as it looked like Natalie Portman would be dueling Emma Stone for the prize. Stone’s wins at the Screen Actors Guild Awards and the British Academy of Film and Television Arts have made her the clear leader.

Nominee

Points from awards and nominations

Emma Stone

Emma Stone

La La Land

187

Won Golden Globes (comedy), Screen Actors Guild, BAFTA

Isabelle Huppert

Isabelle Huppert

Elle

96

Won New York Critics, Los Angeles Critics, Satellite, Golden Globes (drama)

Natalie Portman

Natalie Portman

Jackie

96

Won Critics’ Choice, Chicago Critics

Meryl Streep

Meryl Streep

Florence Foster Jenkins

39

Ruth Negga

Ruth Negga

Loving

35

Won Satellite

NomineeJan. 8Golden Globes (drama)46 pts for win9 for nomJan. 29Screen Actors Guild106 pts for win21 for nomFeb. 12BAFTA63 pts for win13 for nomOther nominations and awardsTotal points
Emma Stone
Emma StoneLa La Land
106 6318187
Isabelle Huppert
Isabelle HuppertElle
46 5096
Natalie Portman
Natalie PortmanJackie
9 21 135396
Meryl Streep
Meryl StreepFlorence Foster Jenkins
21 13539
Ruth Negga
Ruth NeggaLoving
9 2635

Best actor

The Screen Actors Guild’s choice for best actor has gone on to win at the Academy Awards 18 out of the past 22 years, so that’s the show to watch. Casey Affleck has been cleaning up at the critics awards, but any category with Denzel Washington in it is far from decided. Washington's win at the SAG Awards has kept him in the race, but Affleck's victory at the BAFTAs makes him the favorite here.

Nominee

Points from awards and nominations

Casey Affleck

Casey Affleck

Manchester by the Sea

193

Won New York Critics, Critics’ Choice, Chicago Critics, National Board of Review, Golden Globes (drama), BAFTA

Denzel Washington

Denzel Washington

Fences

154

Won Screen Actors Guild

Andrew Garfield

Andrew Garfield

Hacksaw Ridge

64

Won Satellite

Viggo Mortensen

Viggo Mortensen

Captain Fantastic

56

Won Satellite

Ryan Gosling

Ryan Gosling

La La Land

49

Won Golden Globes (comedy)

NomineeDec. 11Critics’ Choice38 pts for win8 for nomJan. 29Screen Actors Guild134 pts for win27 for nomFeb. 12BAFTA54 pts for win11 for nomOther nominations and awardsTotal points
Casey Affleck
Casey AffleckManchester by the Sea
38 27 5474193
Denzel Washington
Denzel WashingtonFences
8 134 12154
Andrew Garfield
Andrew GarfieldHacksaw Ridge
8 27 111864
Viggo Mortensen
Viggo MortensenCaptain Fantastic
27 111856
Ryan Gosling
Ryan GoslingLa La Land
8 27 11349

Best supporting actress

Typically, at least one Oscars category is a slam dunk; last season, Brie Larson and Leonardo DiCaprio were the runaway favorites to win the main acting awards by freaking Christmas. This season, it might be best supporting actress — Viola Davis has pulled in most of the hardware from critics so far. With a win at the SAG Awards, Davis is the clear front-runner.

Nominee

Points from awards and nominations

Viola Davis

Viola Davis

Fences

213

Won Critics’ Choice, Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild, BAFTA

Michelle Williams

Michelle Williams

Manchester by the Sea

61

Won New York Critics, Chicago Critics

Naomie Harris

Naomie Harris

Moonlight

53

Won Satellite, National Board of Review

Nicole Kidman

Nicole Kidman

Lion

44

Octavia Spencer

Octavia Spencer

Hidden Figures

25

NomineeDec. 11Critics’ Choice38 pts for win8 for nomJan. 29Screen Actors Guild87 pts for win17 for nomFeb. 12BAFTA54 pts for win11 for nomOther nominations and awardsTotal points
Viola Davis
Viola DavisFences
38 87 5434213
Michelle Williams
Michelle WilliamsManchester by the Sea
8 17 112561
Naomie Harris
Naomie HarrisMoonlight
8 17 111753
Nicole Kidman
Nicole KidmanLion
8 17 11844
Octavia Spencer
Octavia SpencerHidden Figures
17 825

Best supporting actor

This is one of the only categories in which the Golden Globes carry a lot of weight. Last year, Sylvester Stallone won, but the Oscar race became a too-close-to-call bracket buster after Mark Rylance’s victory at the BAFTAs. This year, Aaron Taylor-Johnson’s win at the Globes threw a wrench into our model’s ability to call this category, considering that he didn’t get an Oscar nod. But after a win at SAG, it’s Mahershala Ali’s Oscar to lose.

Nominee

Points from awards and nominations

Mahershala Ali

Mahershala Ali

Moonlight

157

Won New York Critics, Los Angeles Critics, Critics’ Choice, Chicago Critics, Screen Actors Guild

Dev Patel

Dev Patel

Lion

68

Won BAFTA

Jeff Bridges

Jeff Bridges

Hell or High Water

44

Won Satellite, National Board of Review

Lucas Hedges

Lucas Hedges

Manchester by the Sea

24

Michael Shannon

Michael Shannon

Nocturnal Animals

9

NomineeJan. 8Golden Globes46 pts for win9 for nomJan. 29Screen Actors Guild70 pts for win14 for nomFeb. 12BAFTA39 pts for win8 for nomOther nominations and awardsTotal points
Mahershala Ali
Mahershala AliMoonlight
9 70 870157
Dev Patel
Dev PatelLion
9 14 39668
Jeff Bridges
Jeff BridgesHell or High Water
9 14 81344
Lucas Hedges
Lucas HedgesManchester by the Sea
14 1024
Michael Shannon
Michael ShannonNocturnal Animals
99

Best animated feature

This is the first year that we’re tracking the race for the best animated feature Oscar, which is a somewhat recent addition to the Academy Awards. But even though we have only 15 years of data, the precursor prizes have been very, very good at calling the eventual Oscar winner. At least two-thirds of the time, the winner of the feature animation prizes from the BAFTAs, American Cinema Editors awards, Annie Awards, Critics’ Choice Awards, Golden Globes and National Board of Review went on to win the Oscar.

Nominee

Points from awards and nominations

Zootopia

Zootopia

482

Won New York Critics, Critics’ Choice, Golden Globes, American Cinema Editors, Producers Guild, Annie Awards

Kubo and the Two Strings

Kubo and the Two Strings

329

Won Chicago Critics, National Board of Review, BAFTA

Moana

Moana

125

The Red Turtle

The Red Turtle

25

My Life as a Zucchini

My Life as a Zucchini

10

NomineeJan. 27American Cinema Editors147 pts for win29 for nomFeb. 4Annie Awards89 pts for win18 for nomFeb. 12BAFTA162 pts for win32 for nomOther nominations and awardsTotal points
Zootopia
Zootopia
147 89 32214482
Kubo and the Two Strings
Kubo and the Two Strings
29 18 162120329
Moana
Moana
29 18 3246125
The Red Turtle
The Red Turtle
2525
My Life as a Zucchini
My Life as a Zucchini
1010

Best documentary

This category is new to the model, and no pre-Oscar award is highly predictive. There are a couple of reasons for that: The groups that have a long history of honoring documentaries (the Directors Guild, the New York Film Critics Circle) aren’t very good at recognizing the eventual Oscar winner, and the groups that are good at predicting it (the British Academy, the Producers Guild) haven’t been giving out documentary prizes for long.

Nominee

Points from awards and nominations

O.J.: Made in America

O.J.: Made in America

122

Won Critics’ Choice, New York Critics, Chicago Critics, National Board of Review, American Cinema Editors, Producers Guild, Directors Guild

13th

13th

83

Won Satellite, BAFTA

Life, Animated

Life, Animated

15

I Am Not Your Negro

I Am Not Your Negro

8

Won Los Angeles Critics

Fire at Sea

Fire at Sea

4

NomineeJan. 27American Cinema Editors32 pts for win6 for nomJan. 28Producers Guild40 pts for win8 for nomFeb. 12BAFTA72 pts for win14 for nomOther nominations and awardsTotal points
O.J.: Made in America
O.J.: Made in America
32 40 50122
13th
13th
6 72583
Life, Animated
Life, Animated
8 715
I Am Not Your Negro
I Am Not Your Negro
88
Fire at Sea
Fire at Sea
44

Disclosure: FiveThirtyEight is owned by ESPN, which produced “O.J.: Made in America,” and The Walt Disney Co., which made “Moana” and “Zootopia.”

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