The Race To The Oscars

By Walt Hickey and Allison McCann

FINAL UPDATE 11:00 pm EST | Feb 28

There’s no way to know how much booze and swag the studios and producers are using to beg, borrow and steal votes for their films at the Academy Awards. And there's no way to ask the 7,000 Academy members what they're thinking. But we still like to try to predict who will win anyway.

We track the race by following how the nominees in the big six Oscar categories do at other award shows and distribute points accordingly. Can this method perfectly predict the outcome on Oscar night (Feb. 28 on ABC)? Nah. But it gives us a look at the leaders and a decent sense of who might win. Read more »

Best Supporting Actress
Current rankings:
vikander

Alicia VikanderThe Danish Girl✔

  1. 2

    Kate WinsletSteve Jobs

  2. 3

    Rooney MaraCarol

  3. 4

    Jennifer Jason LeighThe Hateful Eight

  4. 5

    Rachel McAdamsSpotlight

Walt says: This is one of the most interesting categories, with 90 percent of the points coming from four award shows: the Golden Globes, the Critics’ Choice Awards, the BAFTAs and the Screen Actors Guild Awards. Alicia Vikander — whose performance in “Ex Machina” was also considered an Oscar contender — was an early favorite of oddsmakers. But anything can happen, and veteran performers like Kate Winslet and Rachel McAdams can't be counted out.
Best Supporting Actor
Current rankings:
stallone

Sylvester StalloneCreed

  1. 2

    Mark RylanceBridge of Spies✔

  2. 3

    Christian BaleThe Big Short

  3. 4

    Mark RuffaloSpotlight

  4. 5

    Tom HardyThe Revenant

Walt says: Did anyone walk out of "Creed" muttering to herself, "My god, Sylvester Stallone is the best actor this year!" No? Well, he's somehow in the running. Outstanding performances by other nominees – restless fact finders played by Mark Ruffalo and Christian Bale, levelheaded competence by Mark Rylance and backwoods sociopathy by Tom Hardy – make this a profoundly tough category in which to pick a winner.
Best Actress
Current rankings:
larson

Brie LarsonRoom✔

  1. 2

    Saoirse RonanBrooklyn

  2. 3

    Cate BlanchettCarol

  3. 4

    Charlotte Rampling45 Years

  4. 5

    Jennifer LawrenceJoy

Walt says: Based on the early nominations buzz, this was supposed to be a three-way race between Cate Blanchett, Brie Larson and Saoirse Ronan, but Larson cleaned up at the early award shows. While apparently getting kind of lost in the woods is enough to take a big lead in the best actor category, it turns out that for actresses, getting locked in a room by a monster for years was just the ticket.
Best Actor
Current rankings:
dicaprio

Leonardo DiCaprioThe Revenant✔

  1. 2

    Michael FassbenderSteve Jobs

  2. 3

    Eddie RedmayneThe Danish Girl

  3. 4

    Bryan CranstonTrumbo

  4. 5

    Matt DamonThe Martian

Walt says: The Academy is weighing five legendary performances on which to bestow the best actor award: Leonardo DiCaprio in the first fifth of "The Revenant," Leonardo DiCaprio in the scene with the bear, Leonardo DiCaprio toward the end of "The Revenant," the part in "The Revenant" with Leonardo DiCaprio and the bison liver, and Leonardo DiCaprio in "The Departed." I can't wait to see who wins this category.
Best Director
Current rankings:
i__rritu

Alejandro González IñárrituThe Revenant✔

  1. 2

    George MillerMad Max: Fury Road

  2. 3

    Tom McCarthySpotlight

  3. 4

    Adam McKayThe Big Short

  4. 5

    Lenny AbrahamsonRoom

Walt says: This group of directors made a wide array of stylistic choices: We had the understatement of Tom McCarthy’s "Spotlight," the spectacle of RIDING INTO VALHALLA, SHINY AND CHROME! from George Miller, the method-to-the-point-of-madness of Alejandro González Iñárritu’s "The Revenant" and the snark of Adam McKay's "The Big Short." Whoever wins top prize at the Directors Guild Awards has typically gone on to win the Oscar, but we also live in a world where McKay, the guy who made "Anchorman," was nominated for an Academy Award; anything is possible.
Best Picture
Current rankings:
the_revenant

The Revenant

  1. 2

    The Big Short

  2. 3

    Spotlight✔

  3. 4

    Mad Max: Fury Road

  4. 5

    The Martian

  5. 6

    Bridge of Spies

  6. 7

    Room

  7. 8

    Brooklyn

Walt says: This batch of nominees is weird, with the potential for a legitimately tight race. There are three period pieces, two psychological interrogations of solitude, two films highlighting an investigation into systemic wrongdoing, and "Mad Max: Fury Road." Historically, the rule has been never to bet against the film with an explosive guitar player riding on a war machine, but I may be misremembering the plot of "The Bridge on the River Kwai."

CORRECTION (Feb. 22, 6:00 p.m.): An earlier version of the best picture section of this interactive chart showed incorrect positions for “Spotlight" and "The Big Short," based on data from the Writers Guild Awards that was incorrectly entered. “Spotlight" should have been ranked third, not second, and "The Big Short" should have been ranked second, not third.

Design and development by Allison McCann and Gus Wezerek. Statistical model by Nate Silver and Walt Hickey.

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