Hack Your Way To Scientific Glory
You’re a social scientist with a hunch: The U.S. economy is affected by whether Republicans or Democrats are in office. Try to show that a connection exists, using real data going back to 1948. For your results to be publishable in an academic journal, you’ll need to prove that they are “statistically significant” by achieving a low enough p-value.
Choose a political party
Which politicians do you want to include?
How do you want to measure economic performance?
Weight more powerful positions more heavily
Don’t include economic recessions
Is there a relationship?
Given how you've defined your terms, does the economy do better, worse or about the same when more ? Each dot below represents one month of data.
Is your result significant?
If there were no connection between the economy and politics, what is the probability that you'd get results at least as strong as yours? That probability is your p-value, and by convention, you need a p-value of 0.05 or less to get published.