UPDATED Jan. 20, 2021, at 11:43 AM

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Who’s ahead in Arkansas?

Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

Added Nov. 2, 2020

DatesPollsterSampleResultNet result
President: general election
President: general election Ark.
Ark.
Oct 20-Nov 1, 2020
1,161 LV
Oct 20-Nov 1, 2020
1,161LVBiden
38%

Biden

38%

Trump

61%
61%
TrumpTrump+23
President: general election Ark.
Ark.
Oct 20-Nov 1, 2020
1,161 RV
Oct 20-Nov 1, 2020
1,161RVBiden
41%

Biden

41%

Trump

58%
58%
TrumpTrump+17
U.S. House
U.S. House
AR-2AR-2
Oct 29-Nov 2, 2020
586 LV
Oct 29-Nov 2, 2020
586LVElliott
48%

Elliott

48%

Hill

48%
48%
HillEven

Key

A = ADULTS

RV = REGISTERED VOTERS

V = VOTERS

LV = LIKELY VOTERS

Oct. 28, 2020

President: general election
President: general election Ark.
Ark.
Oct 9-21, 2020
591 LV
Oct 9-21, 2020
591LVBiden
32%

Biden

32%

Trump

65%
65%
TrumpTrump+33
U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Ark.Ark.
Oct 9-21, 2020
591 LV
Oct 9-21, 2020
591LVHarrington
20%

Harrington

20%

Cotton

75%
75%
CottonCotton+55

Oct. 26, 2020

U.S. House
U.S. House
AR-2AR-2
Oct 16-21, 2020
500 LV
Oct 16-21, 2020
500LVElliott
47%

Elliott

47%

Hill

47%
47%
HillEven

Oct. 20, 2020

President: general election
President: general election Ark.
Ark.
Sep 22-Oct 19, 2020
1,707 LV
Sep 22-Oct 19, 2020
1,707LVBiden
40%

Biden

40%

Trump

58%
58%
TrumpTrump+18
President: general election Ark.
Ark.
Sep 22-Oct 19, 2020
1,707 RV
Sep 22-Oct 19, 2020
1,707RVBiden
41%

Biden

41%

Trump

56%
56%
TrumpTrump+15

Oct. 19, 2020

President: general election
President: general election Ark.
Ark.
Oct 11-13, 2020
647 LV
Oct 11-13, 2020
647LVBiden
34%

Biden

34%

Trump

58%

Jorgensen

2%

Hawkins

1%
MoreTrump+25
U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Ark.Ark.
Oct 11-13, 2020
647 LV
Oct 11-13, 2020
647LVHarrington
28%

Harrington

28%

Cotton

63%
63%
CottonCotton+35
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