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Who’s ahead in the Arkansas race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

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ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

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REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Oct. 30, 2022

U.S. Senate, Arkansas, 2022

557LV
Oct.13-31
557LV
James
26%
James
26%

James

26%

Boozman

55%

Cates

5%
55%
BoozmanBoozman+29

Governor, Arkansas, 2022

557LV
Oct.13-31
557LV
Jones
34%
Jones
34%

Jones

34%

Sanders

53%

Harrington

4%
53%
SandersSanders+19

Oct. 17, 2022

U.S. Senate, Arkansas, 2022

974LV
Oct.17-18
974LV
James
32%
James
32%

James

32%

Boozman

52%

Cates

3%
52%
BoozmanBoozman+20

Governor, Arkansas, 2022

974LV
Oct.17-18
974LV
Jones
41%
Jones
41%

Jones

41%

Sanders

51%

Harrington

3%
51%
SandersSanders+10

Sept. 14, 2022

Governor, Arkansas, 2022

1,418LV
Sep.14-15
1,418LV
Jones
34%
Jones
34%

Jones

34%

Sanders

59%

Harrington

3%
59%
SandersSanders+25

Sept. 11, 2022

U.S. Senate, Arkansas, 2022

835LV
Sep.12
835LV
James
31%
James
31%

James

31%

Boozman

44%

Cates

5%
44%
BoozmanBoozman+13

Governor, Arkansas, 2022

835LV
Sep.12
835LV
Jones
40%
Jones
40%

Jones

40%

Sanders

51%

Harrington

2%
51%
SandersSanders+11

Sept. 6, 2022

President: general election, Arkansas, 2024

382LV
Aug.31-Sep.7
382LV
Biden
31%
Biden
31%

Biden

31%

DeSantis

49%
49%
DeSantis  DeSantis+18
382LV
Aug.31-Sep.7
382LV
Biden
33%
Biden
33%

Biden

33%

Trump Sr.

58%
58%
Trump Sr.  Trump Sr.+25

President: Republican primary, Arkansas, 2024

184LV
Aug.31-Sep.7
184LV
Trump Sr.
58%
Trump Sr.
58%

Trump Sr.

58%

DeSantis

29%
29%
DeSantis  Trump Sr.+29

Governor, Arkansas, 2022

382LV
Aug.31-Sep.7
382LV
Jones
32%
Jones
32%

Jones

32%

Sanders

62%
62%
Sanders  Sanders+30
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