See who’s ahead in the 2021 Virginia governor’s race

UPDATED Oct. 20, 2021, at 4:54 PM

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Updated throughout the day.

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Who’s ahead in all?

Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

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DatesPollsterSampleResultNet result
Governor
Governor
Va.Va.
Oct 16-19, 2021
1,005 RV
Oct 16-19, 2021
1,005RVMcAuliffe
46%

McAuliffe

46%

Youngkin

46%
46%
YoungkinEven

Key

A = ADULTS

RV = REGISTERED VOTERS

V = VOTERS

LV = LIKELY VOTERS

 

Governor
Governor
Okla.Okla.
Oct 12-14, 2021
500 RV
Oct 12-14, 2021
500RVHofmeister
33%

Hofmeister

33%

Stitt

49%
49%
StittStitt+16
Governor
N.J.N.J.
Oct 9-12, 2021
500 LV
Oct 9-12, 2021
500LVMurphy
50%

Murphy

50%

Ciattarelli

41%
41%
CiattarelliMurphy+9
Governor
Va.Va.
Oct 9-12, 2021
500 LV
Oct 9-12, 2021
500LVMcAuliffe
47%

McAuliffe

47%

Youngkin

43%
43%
YoungkinMcAuliffe+4

Oct. 14, 2021

Governor
Governor
Va.Va.
Oct 11-13, 2021
1,095 LV
Oct 11-13, 2021
1,095LVMcAuliffe
48%

McAuliffe

48%

Youngkin

48%
48%
YoungkinYoungkin+1

Oct. 13, 2021

Governor
Governor
Va.Va.
Oct 10-13, 2021
726 LV
Oct 10-13, 2021
726LVMcAuliffe
51%

McAuliffe

51%

Youngkin

46%
46%
YoungkinMcAuliffe+5
Governor
Va.Va.
Oct 10-13, 2021
1,004 RV
Oct 10-13, 2021
1,004RVMcAuliffe
52%

McAuliffe

52%

Youngkin

41%
41%
YoungkinMcAuliffe+11

Oct. 11, 2021

Governor
Governor
Va.Va.
Oct 4-11, 2021
1,040 LV
Oct 4-11, 2021
1,040LVMcAuliffe
50%

McAuliffe

50%

Youngkin

47%
47%
YoungkinMcAuliffe+3
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